Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
102 PM EDT FRI MAY 4 2012

.AVIATION... / 18Z TAFS /

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG AN AREA OF WEAK LOW LVL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON THE TAIL END OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE
TRACKING INTO SE LOWER MI SHOULD REMAIN EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...LEAVING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISO STORM AT FWA BUT
PROBABILITY TOO LOW FOR A VCTS/SHRA MENTION. THE PRIMARY SFC
BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN IL AND CENTRAL LOWER MI WILL SLIDE SWD THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SFC WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY. THE SHALLOW
COOLER AIR UNDERCUTTING THE LINGERING WARM AIRMASS ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW AN IFR/MVFR STRATUS DECK TO SET UP ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM EDT FRI MAY 4 2012/

SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/ WK CDFNT EXTENDED FROM
CENTRAL MI SEWD TO SRN IA EARLY THIS MORNING. TSTMS WERE OCRG
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER SRN MI/NE IL. MORE STABLE AIRMASS TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STORMS OVER OUR AREA ALONG WITH WKNG LLJ
SHOULD CAUSE THIS CONVECTION TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND WARMING MID LEVELS AS
UPR TROF OVER THE GRTLKS MOVES EAST WITH RIDGING IN ITS WAKE TODAY
SUGGESTS DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL BE MODEST AT BEST. MAIN
FORCING FOR TSTMS WILL BE WK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG SHALLOW
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE AREA... THUS KEPT POPS IN CHC
RANGE. GIVEN AT MOST MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WK WIND FIELDS/DEEP
SHEAR... SVR RISK SEEMS TO BE OF PULSE VARIETY. CLOUD DEBRIS AND
WEAK WIND FIELDS SUGGEST MOS TEMPS ON TARGET... CONSIDERABLY
COOLER THAN YDAY RANGING FROM THE L70S NW TO THE L80S SE.

WK CDFNT SHOULD CONT TO BACK S-SW THROUGH SRN PORTION OF CWA THIS
EVE. CONTD WITH A CHC OF SHRA ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVE FAVORING
MORE STABLE NAM FCST SOUNDINGS. COOLER AIR SHOULD FILTER INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE L50S NE TO L60S
SW. DRIER AIR WILL CONT TO WORK INTO THE AREA SAT/SAT NGT... HWVR
MODELS SUGGEST SOME WK/MOD INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
SAT ALONG AN INVERTED TROF SO CONTD WITH LOW CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS...PSBLY
LINGERING INTO THE EVE. MOS/MODELS LOOK A BIT TOO WARM ON TEMPS
SAT WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA SO STAYED CLOSE TO
PREV FCST HIGHS IN THE 70S. WK CAA SHOULD CONT OFF SFC HIGH TO
THE N-NE SAT NGT RESULTING IN LOWS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE CWA.

LONG TERM... /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

MAIN FOCUS OF LONG TERM WILL BE ON BREAKDOWN OF TEMPORARY RIDGING
AND TRANSITION TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL SUNDAY WITH
BULK OF MSTR AND LIFT REMAINING W AND S OF THE AREA. AS LONG WAVE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE PLAINS...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING A DECENT
SHOT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE CONTINUED UPWARD TREND IN
POPS...WHICH RESULTED IN LIKELY POPS IN NW AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT
TRANSITIONING EASTWARD ON MONDAY. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY
NIGHT BEFORE BULK OF MSTR AND ENERGY EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE REGION.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH WARMEST
READINGS EXPECTED SUNDAY GIVEN MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE.

AS THE MAIN TROUGH SETTLES INTO THE AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION...TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT
OVERLY COLD WITH HIGHS STILL IN THE 60S. 12Z MODELS HAD SOME
AGREEMENT ON CLOSE LOW AND TROUGH WORKING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. NEW 00Z ECMWF TAKE A MORE DRAMATIC CHANGE DROPPING THE UPPER
LOW WELL SOUTH INTO THE GULF STATES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AGREE
WITH NCEP THAT CONFIDENCE IN MED RANGE SOLUTIONS IS LOW...WARRANTING
STATUS QUO ON FORECAST...WITH ALL BLEND OF MODELS SUFFICING FOR THE
TIME BEING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1038 AM EDT FRI MAY 4 2012

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-051445-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
1038 AM EDT FRI MAY 4 2012 /938 AM CDT FRI MAY 4 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 24 IN
INDIANA AND OHIO...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-051445-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
1038 AM EDT FRI MAY 4 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
201 PM EDT FRI MAY 4 2012

OHZ016-025-041845-
ALLEN OH-PUTNAM OH-
201 PM EDT FRI MAY 4 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD NORTHEASTERN ALLEN AND
SOUTHEASTERN PUTNAM COUNTIES...

AT 158 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR COLUMBUS GROVE...OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
OTTAWA...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  BLUFFTON...
  COLUMBUS GROVE...
  PANDORA...
  ROCKPORT...

STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4085 8388 4085 8414 4095 8418 4102 8388
      4099 8387 4086 8387
TIME...MOT...LOC 1801Z 263DEG 14KT 4091 8411