Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
405 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

.SHORT TERM...
ACTIVE CONVN CONTS IN EARNEST THIS AFTN N OF SFC FNTL ZONE THAT
EXTENDS ACRS SRN WI/CNTRL LWR MI. S OF THIS BNDRY...STG RIDGING
ALOFT AND VRY WARM MID LVL TEMPS SUPPRESSING ANY REALISTIC HOPE OF
SIG CONVN DOWN HERE THIS AFTN. HWVR AGGRAVATED CU DVLPMNT INVOF SFC
CONFLUENCE ZONE THROUGH NW IN/SW WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED GIVEN
RUC/HRRR PROGGED DVLPMNT THERE AFT 21Z. APPROACHING MCV FROM
UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY POSE SOME ADDED FORCING ALONG THIS
CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WITH MLCAPES ON THE
ORDER OF 3000 J/KG CANNOT DISCOUNT ISOLD SVR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE RATHER MARGINAL KINEMATIC PROFILES.

OTHERWISE LG SCALE SW TROUGH EJECTING THROUGH SWRN ON THIS AFTN WILL
PUSH RAPIDLY WKNG SFC BNDRY S INTO THE OH VALLEY BY FRI AFTN. POOR
FORCING ALOFT AND CONTD WARM MID LVL TEMPS ARE PRIMARY NEGATIVES
BOTH OVERNIGHT AND FRI AND WILL SCALE BACK POPS THROUGH THE PD BUT
ESP FRI AFTN AND DROP CNTRL/ERN AREAS FRI NIGHT PER LG NEG THETA-E
PUSH OUT OF SE CANADA.

NR RECORD TEMPS TDA WILL COOL ON FRI W/SHALLOW POST FNTL CAA AND
WIDESPREAD CLD CVR BUT STILL QUITE WARM FOR EARLY MAY STANDARDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST ON THIS
PACKAGE WITH MAIN CONCERNS CENTERING ON CONTINUED PRECIP CHANCES
THIS WEEKEND...AND ESPECIALLY FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

ON SATURDAY...SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. NOT MUCH TO LATCH ONTO IN TERMS OF
MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR THIS PERIOD WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE. SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE LIKELY WILL
EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL INDIANA. EVEN
ACROSS THE WEST HOWEVER...WOULD EXPECT SFC BASED CONVECTION WOULD
BE HARD TO COME BY GIVEN WEAK LAPSE RATES IN THE 900 TO 700 HPA
LAYER. WITH LACK OF CLEAR MID LEVEL FORCING MECHANISM HAVE OPTED
TO MAINTAIN LOW TO MID CHANCE TSRA POPS WEST AND SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA POPS ACROSS THE EAST WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH MORE
LIMITED. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE ON SATURDAY.

WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY IN ADVANCE
OF NEXT EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WHICH POSES SOME LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
SUNDAY. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHEAST CANADIAN
ANTICYCLONE WILL LIKELY ALSO LIMIT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. A LITTLE
HESITANT TO REMOVE POPS COMPLETELY GIVEN PRESENCE OF LINGERING
BAROCLINIC ZONE...BUT HAVE LOWERED POPS INTO LOW END CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SUNDAY.

NEXT CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR
MONDAY AS AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM PACIFIC TROUGH DAMPENS CENTRAL CONUS
RIDGE. ELEVATED WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY SURGE BACK NORTHWARD IN
RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE WITH RENEWED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL AT THIS TIME WITH TREND
BACK TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. DID ADD LOW
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS THIS TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS XPCD TO CONT THROUGH THE PD. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONT
THROUGH LT AFTN IS DEEPLY MIXED PBL BUT DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS
EVENING. APCH OF OFB FM EARLIER MCS OVR IA/MO POSES CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY LT THIS AFTN IN TERMS OF SPARKING POTENTIAL NEW DVLPMNT.
HIGHRES GUIDANCE IS QUITE VARIED W/GREATLY DIFFERING SCENARIOS. HWVR
GIVEN SIG RIDGING ALOFT AND LACK OF GREATER SYNOPTIC SCALE SPRT
HERE...IT APPEARS DOUBTFUL. THUS WILL HOLD W/DRY FCST AND AMEND AS
NEEDED.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

SHORT TERM...T/NM
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...T

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
628 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

MIZ077>079-032300-
BERRIEN MI-CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-
628 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD CASS...NORTHWESTERN ST. JOSEPH
AND EXTREME EASTERN BERRIEN COUNTIES...

AT 624 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF EDWARDSBURG...OR
NEAR NILES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...OCCASIONAL
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  DOWAGIAC...
  CASSOPOLIS...
  MARCELLUS...
  JUNO LAKE AND MAGICIAN LAKE...
  LA GRANGE...DIAMOND LAKE AND CALVIN CENTER...
  PENN...VANDALIA AND PARADISE LAKE...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN.

LAT...LON 4207 8560 4188 8554 4177 8623 4207 8623
TIME...MOT...LOC 2227Z 243DEG 29KT 4189 8614