Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
246 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

.SHORT TERM...
UNDULAR BORE TIED TO WKNG SFC TROUGH STALLING OVR SRN WI/CNTRL LWR
MI THIS AFTN W/ROBUST SWRLY LL FLW ACRS IL/IN. PRIMARY FTR OF NOTE
IS IMMENSE LL THETA-E RIDGE UNDERNEATH STEEP EML WHICH THROUGH
DIURNAL HEATING WAS BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE. WHILE CLEAR CUT
FOCUS/TRIGGERING MECHANISM GENERALLY LACKING...INCIPIENT INITIATION XPCD
WITHIN LL CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDING FM CNTRL IL NEWD INTO NRN IN
AND INVOF OF OLD OUTFLW BNDRY OVR NW OH AHD OF SUBTLE SW DISTURBANCE
SEEN OVR SW IA. GIVEN LOOK OF GROWING AGITATED CU FIELD ACRS CNTRL
IL...XPC INITIATION ACRS NRN IN TWD 21Z ESP IN LIGHT OF RECENT SFC
BACKING. MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY RESERVOIR ALONE HERALDS A DISTINCT
SVR RISK FOR HAIL AND PERHAPS SOME WIND ALTHOUGH AMBIENT BACKGROUND
FLW RELATIVELY WEAK...AOB 30KTS...AS NOTED IN WOLCOTT PROFILER.

CONVN SHLD LINGER INTO THIS EVENING ESP ERN HALF IN PROXIMITY TO
OUTFLW BNDRY AND LL THETA-E RIDGE. HWVR LTR PORTION OF TONIGHT PD
MORE UNCERTAIN ESP IN CONTEXT OF VEERING LL FLW RESPONSE PROXIMAL TO
SFC TROUGH. HIGHRES SIGNALS ARE CERTAINLY CONFLICTED AND IN ABSENCE
OF A WELL DEFINED TRIGGER...STABILIZING BNDRY LYR AND XPCD POOR MASS
FLUX WILL DROP POP MENTION ENTIRELY.

LTL CHG ALOFT ON FRI W/A CONTN OF EXTREMELY WARM TEMPERATURES.
THERMAL RIDGE REMAINS INTACT AND XPC TEMPS WILL REMAIN NR
PERSISTENCE OF THE LAST FEW DAYS. WEAKER LL FLW AND AGAIN LACK OF
DEFINED TRIGGER PRECLUDES HOLDING W/PRIOR LWR BOUND TSRA CHC POPS
AND DROPPED EVEN THOUGH AN ISOLD STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT LT FRI
AFTN/EVE TIMED W/MAX DESTABILIZATION.

&&

.LONG TERM...

UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
LONG TERM AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD WITH TIME. DEEP UPPER LOW
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH WILL
PUMP HEIGHTS UP ACROSS OUR AREA. 850MB TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN VERY
STEADY THROUGH THE PERIOD THUS EXPECT SFC TEMPS TO FOLLOW SIMILAR
TREND WITH MUCH OF AREA FLIRTING WITH 80 THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLOUDS
AND PCPN WILL BE MAIN INHIBITING FACTORS FOR WARMING WITH TIMING OF
SHORT WAVES IN MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SHORT WAVES AND INSTABILITY. WHILE THERE REMAINS
VERY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PCPN MONDAY THROUGH WED EXPECT BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE TO SUPPRESS ACTIVITY THUS KEPT THESE PERIODS DRY.
OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE TRYING TO BRING UPPER LOW AND TROUGH INTO
OUR AREA AS EARLY AS TUESDAY BUT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MUCH SLOWER AND
PREFERRED GIVEN MODELS FAST BIAS WITH UPPER LOWS. HENCE CONTINUED
WARMER TREND OVER MOS GUIDANCE IN LATER PERIODS WITH A SLIGHT HEDGE
DOWNWARD BY DAY 7 AS TROUGH POSSIBLY GETS CLOSE ENOUGH FOR PCPN AND
CLOUDS THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH THE PD OUTSIDE UNCERTAIN NR TERM.
STRONG DESTABILIZATION HAS DVLPD WITHIN LL THETA-E RIDGE THIS AFTN
AND CONDS LOOK PRIME FOR STRONG-SVR CONV INITIATION SHRTLY WITHIN
LL CONFLUENCE ZONE SEEN STRETCHING FM NRN IN SWWD INTO CNTRL IL.
THUS THE RATIONAL BEHIND TEMPO TSRA GROUP THIS AFTN/EVE AT THE
TERMINALS W/A PD OF MVFR CONDS LIKELY.

OTHERWISE SFC TROUGH XPCD TO STALL NW OF TERMINALS OVERNIGHT W/WK
GRADIENT FLW CONTG WITHIN OMNIPRESENT LL THERMAL RIDGE. MOS
GUIDANCE INDICATIONS OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AGAIN LOOK SUSPICIOUS
LIKE LAST NIGHT AND OMITTED.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...T

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
553 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-161000-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
553 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012 /453 AM CDT THU MAR 15 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
A THREE RIVERS MICHIGAN TO WARSAW INDIANA TO WABASH INDIANA LINE.
PENNY TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL.

FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA
INTO FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LOCALIZED DENSE FOG TONIGHT ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TODAY. SPOTTER REPORTS
OF GUSTY WINDS OR HAIL WILL BE APPRECIATED.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-161000-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
553 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
TODAY...AND POSSIBLY BECOME DENSE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/?N=MARINE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
545 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0544 PM     HAIL             STAR CITY               40.97N  86.56W
03/15/2012  M1.00 INCH       PULASKI            IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

NG

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