Gale Watch 4, NWS Northern Indiana

543 
WHUS73 KIWX 051553
MWWIWX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1053 AM EST MON MAR 5 2012

LMZ043-046-060000-
/O.CON.KIWX.GL.A.0004.120306T1000Z-120306T2000Z/
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
1053 AM EST MON MAR 5 2012

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...

A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. 

* WINDS: SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS EARLY TUESDAY
  MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOT
  GALES ARE POSSIBLE FROM AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
  AFTERNOON.

* WAVES: BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET IN INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS... 
  AND 4 TO 7 FEET IN MICHIGAN NEARSHORE WATERS ON TUESDAY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$


STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR
UPDATES...OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/?N=MARINE

760 
WHUS73 KIWX 052048
MWWIWX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
348 PM EST MON MAR 5 2012

LMZ043-046-060500-
/O.UPG.KIWX.GL.A.0004.120306T1000Z-120306T2000Z/
/O.NEW.KIWX.GL.W.0013.120306T1000Z-120307T1200Z/
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
348 PM EST MON MAR 5 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A
GALE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY. THE GALE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* WINDS: SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS EARLY TUESDAY
  MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOT
  GALES CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
  EVENING. 

* WAVES: BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET IN INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS... 
  AND 4 TO 7 FEET IN MICHIGAN NEARSHORE WATERS ON TUESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$


STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR
UPDATES...OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/?N=MARINE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
451 AM EST MON MAR 5 2012

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. CONTD WINTER WX ADVISORY THROUGH 12
UTC AD FIN AS GRDL DECAY OF TEAKETTLE/LONG-AXIS CONVERGENT LAND
BREEZE EVENT CONTS. LES BAND TO SUCCUMB TO INCRSD DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT AS SFC RIDGE EMBOLDENS INTO WI...WHILST AXIS SLIDES
EWD AS POS U WIND COMPONENT CONTS INCRS. ANTICIPATE DECENT
CU/STRATOCU COVERAGE TO DEVELOP IN RETREATING THERMAL TROF BY
MIDDAY/ESPCLY ACRS NERN CWA PER CU RULES...THOUGH BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY AS XTRMLY DRY/PWAT BLO 2SD/LT 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL SETTLES
THROUGH SRN GRTLKS RGN. THEREAFTER BENIGN PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AS
WEAKLY AMPLIFIED MID/UL RIDGE SHIFTS EWD ENVELOPING ENTIRE CONUS
EWD OF GREAT DIVIDE...IN ADVOF 140W TROF DIGGING INTO WRN COAST BY
12 UTC TUE. 8H BLOCKING GOMEX FEED INTO MIDWEEK TO AFFORD INITIAL
DRY CP/COLD SUBSIDENT AIRMASS TO UNDERGO UNHURRIED THERMAL
MODERATION MARKED BY STRONG DIURNAL PLUS RISES ESP GOING INTO TUE
WITH STRONG LLVL WAA/INSOLATION ANTICIPATED. HESITANT TO ACCEPT
COOL MET GUID TUE GIVEN ABSENCE OF A MORE BACKED SFC FLOW...AND
PECULIARLY MEAGER SFC BASED LAPSE RATES PER POINT SNDGS. WITH MON
NIGHT MIN TEMPS ANTICIPATED A FEW HOURS SOONER THAN CLIMO AND
STRONG BOOST TO 925MB TEMPS OF ABOUT 4-6C/12 HR...ELECT FOR NO
LOWER THAN A MAV/CONSISTENCY BLENDED APPROACH FOR TUE MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PRIMARY CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD
INCLUDE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION TYPE. SECONDARY CHALLENGES ARE HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
AND THE WARMUP THIS WEEKEND. FOR THIS PACKAGE...FAVOR THE CANADIAN
GEM. THE CANADIAN APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST OVERALL HANDLE ON THIS
PATTERN ALTHOUGH ALL OF THE SPECTRAL MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING THE
LATE WEEK SHORT WAVE FASTER. ALSO...THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLES SHOW LOW
STANDARD DEVIATIONS IN THE MIDDLE 50 PERCENT OF SOLUTIONS...25TH
PERCENTILE TO 75TH PERCENTILE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...KEPT WEDNESDAY
MILD. MOST AREAS SHOULD BE ABLE TO TOP 60 DEGREES. THE FRONT SHOULD
PUSH RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING IN
THE AFTERNOON. ADDED A MIX IN THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHORTLY BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION GIVEN RELATIVELY MILD
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AT THE ONSET AND THE BRIEF DURATION OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. AS WITH THE GFS...THE CANADIAN DOES HAVE A FEW
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH VERY LITTLE COLD AIR REACHING THE AREA FRIDAY.
FOR NOW...LEFT HIGHS IN THE 40S...ALTHOUGH GUT FEELING IS HIGHS
REMAINING ONLY IN THE 30S FRIDAY GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE
AND THE PROBABLE POSITION OF THE CUT OFF LOW. KEPT MODERATING
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND...BUT AM NOT FULLY SOLD ON 50S ON SUNDAY.
LOWERED ALLBLEND A LITTLE SUNDAY...BUT KEPT 50S FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12 UTC TAFS/...
LAND BREEZE/TEA KETTLE LONG AXIS CONVERGENT BAND ACRS ERN LK MI THIS
AM WITH STRONGER RETURNS TO VACILLATE EWD W/TIME INTO KSBN AIRFIELD
VCNTY WITH HIGHLY VARIABLE VSBYS/CIGS LKLY DOWN INTO IFR RANGE AT
HEIGHT. UPSTREAM RIDGING TO ENCROACH INTO WI BY AROUND DAYBREAK
BRINGING INVERSION HGHTS CRASHING AND BACKING CLOUD STEERING
FLOW...WITH SUBSEQUENT RETURN TO VFR CONDS RMNDR OF TAF PD BYND
ABOUT 15 UTC. OCNL MVFR AT KFWA IN LIGHTER SHSN ERLY...THOUGH MET
CONDS LKLY REMAINING AOA FUEL ALT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     INZ003.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     LMZ043-046.

&&

SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
935 PM EST SUN MAR 4 2012

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-060245-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
935 PM EST SUN MAR 4 2012 /835 PM CST SUN MAR 4 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
INDIANA AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED AROUND AN INCH OR
LESS...ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CAN EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW DUE TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALSO ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR
SO OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS LA PORTE...BERRIEN COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT...EXTENDING POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS FAR WESTERN CASS
COUNTY IN SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-060245-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
935 PM EST SUN MAR 4 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. SOME GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1122 PM EST SUN MAR 4 2012

INZ003-050730-
LA PORTE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE
1022 PM CST SUN MAR 4 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS...WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE SNOWFALL
RATES...WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SNOWFALL RATES
OF UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE. EXPECT UP TO 3 INCHES
SNOWFALL BY DAYBREAK...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS CLOSE TO LAKE
MICHIGAN. UNTREATED ROADS WILL BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS.
MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TO FLURRIES BY DAYBREAK.