Freeze Watch 5, NWS Northern Indiana

Allen County, IN, DeKalb County, IN, Elkhart County, IN, LaGrange County, IN, Marshall County, IN, Noble County, IN, Starke County, IN, Steuben County, IN, Whitley County, IN, Branch County, MI, Cass County, MI, Hillsdale County, MI, Saint Joseph County, MI, Allen County, OH, Defiance County, OH, Fulton County, OH, Henry County, OH, Paulding County, OH, Putnam County, OH, Van Wert County, OH, Williams County, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
354 AM EDT SAT APR 28 2012

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A SHORT WAVE TROF OVER EASTERN IA
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. SATELLITE INDICATED A WELL DEFINED SIGNATURE OF THIS
SYSTEM...BUT THE CHALLENGE IS THE AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE FURTHER
EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA. PREFER THE 4KM NAM/WRF WHICH HAS A VERY
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM. THE TEMPERATURE SHOULD REMAIN STEADY
OVER MOST AREAS NEAR 45F WITH AN EAST WIND. CHILLY AIR WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING OVER NORTHEAST AREAS
EXPECTED. ADDED A FREEZE WATCH FOR TONIGHT OVER NORTHEAST AREAS
WHERE THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
CLEARING SKIES. OTHERWISE...KEPT A CHANCE FOR RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT OVER
NW AREAS AS A SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG AXIS OF INCREASING
LOW LEVEL THETA E.

&&

.LONG TERM...
BIFURCATING UPR TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE WRN US STARTS THE PD ON
MON. SRN PORTION OF SPLIT XPCD TO BE MOST ACTIVE COINCIDENT
W/POSITION OF LL THETA-E RIDGE AND STRONGEST MSTR FLUX INVOF OF
SUBTLE SFC TROUGH. WILL ADD SOME TEMPORAL REFINEMENT EARLY IN THE PD
BASED ON 00Z MEANS AND EMPLOY SYNOPTIC PATTN RECOGNITION LTR ON IN
ORDER TO STAVE OFF AN INCREASINGLY SPREAD HGT SOLUTION ALOFT AND
DEEMED OVERLY GENEROUS ALL-BLEND POPS.

HWVR PATTN GOING FWD CERTAINLY MAY LIKE W/SIG LL THERMAL
WARMING/MOISTENING W/APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY DVLPG BOTH TUE AND WED.
GREATER DETAIL UNCERTAINTY STEMS BENEATH BROADER NRN STREAM
TROUGHING AND LIKELY PERIODIC CONV INITIATION/MAINTENANCE INVOF OF
W-E SFC BNDRY/OUTFLW AND READILY DISPLAYED IN VASTLY DIFFERING RUN
TO RUN MED RANGE SOLUTIONS. BEST APPROACH AS OPPOSED TO BLINDLY
ACCEPTING ALL-BLEND NUMBERS IS TO FOCUS GREATER PRECIP PROBABILITIES
TO AFTN/EVE THROUGH EARLY DY4. BEYOND THAT...SIG DIFFS DVLP W/DEPTH
AND TIMING OF POTENTIAL ERN US TROUGHING. HWVR AS USUAL OP GFS
W/DEEPEST AND MOST PROGRESSIVE W/MID LVL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND FRI WAS THROWN OUT IN LIEU OF KNOWN GFS BIAS AND SLANTED
HEAVILY TWD EC/GEFS MEAN AS MORE SUBDUED/FLATTER MID LVL SOLUTION
PREFERRED HERE AND OBVIATES A NEED TO CARRY A POP MENTION BEYOND
THU NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH BASED SHOWERS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. MADE SOME
MINOR TIMING ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SHOWERS GIVEN THE LATEST RADAR
EXTRAPOLATION. EXPECT MVFR CLOUDS LATE IN THE PERIOD AS AN EAST
WINDS PERSISTS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     INZ003>009-012-014-016>018.

MI...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     MIZ077>081.

OH...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OHZ001-
     002-004-005-015-016-024-025.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...SKIPPER

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