Special Weather Statement, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
413 AM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012

THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE WHICH HAD BROUGHT RECORD HEAT THE LAST FEW
DAYS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND EAST TO WEST ACROSS OUR REGION.
THE COMBINATION OF THIS FRONT AND A FEW WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PRODUCE A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR NORTH.

IN THE EXTENDED MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012

A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOME OF THESE WILL MOVE OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION THIS MORNING.  I EXPECT THERE WILL
BE TWO ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  THE FIRST WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COMPLEX CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS OUR REGION.   THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS OUR AREA BY MID OR LATE MORNING AND THERE MAY
BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY TOWARDS MIDDAY.  THIS IS SOMEWHAT INDICATED BY
THE RAPID REFRESH WHICH SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR
NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING AND A LULL TOWARDS MIDDAY.

AFTER THAT SEVERAL MODELS INDICATE REDEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A LEFT OVER
BOUNDARY WILL BE ACROSS OUR REGION.  FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS MAY BE
TOO CAPPED SO WILL KEEP THAT AREA DRY TODAY.

SPC HAS MOST AREAS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS WITH WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY. BUT I STILL
FEEL OUR FAR SOUTH MAY BE A BIT TOO CAPPED FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING TO
OCCUR THERE.

WITH MORE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CONVECTION HAVE SCALED BACK
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ACROSS OUR NORTH AND CENTRAL FROM THE EARLIER
FORECAST.  ON THE OTHER HAND...MAV/MET NUMBERS MAY BE A BIT LOW AS
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY FOR TEMPERATURES TO
HEAT UP A LITTLE MORE.  SO FOR NOW WILL GO 50 PERCENT PERSISTENCE
AND 50 PERCENT MAV/MET BLEND.  HAVE FORECASTED HIGHS FROM THE LOWER
90S OVER FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS TO NEAR 105 IN THE SOUTH.  DEWPOINTS
MAY BE HIGHER THAN MODELS INDICATE...BUT EVEN CONSIDERING
THAT...HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY HAVE A HARD TIME REACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA NORTH HALF...MUCH LESS WARNING CRITERIA. SO FAR NOW WILL
SCALE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING BACK TO A HEAT ADVISORY ALONG AND
NORTH OF A COVINGTON TO INDIANAPOLIS TO RUSHVILLE LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012

A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHERN GEORGIA TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS STALLED EAST TO
WEST ACROSS OUR REGION.   MODELS BRING A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
ACROSS OUR REGION...SO WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS.

OVERALL THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A LOT OF CHANGE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING A LITTLE MORE AFTER THE
WEEKEND WILL LOWER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO NO MORE THAN 20 PERCENT
BY MONDAY.

SPC HAS ALL BUT FAR SOUTHERN AREAS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER AGAIN SUNDAY.  THEN MONDAY LOOKS LIKE MAINLY GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LESS CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012

GIVEN GFS/S ISSUES WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER...GENERALLY RELIED ON THE
ECMWF FOR MOST FEATURES.

ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS OUR AREA...AND THIS
USUALLY LEADS TO A DRIER FORECAST.

CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION EARLY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS STILL IN THE
VICINITY. HOWEVER WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF
ANY WAVES MOVING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE /AND THE OVERALL
INCREASING HEIGHTS/...FEEL CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION.

THUS HAVE REMOVED THE ALL BLEND INITIALIZATION CHANCES FOR RAIN
DURING THE PERIOD AND STUCK WITH DRY PREVIOUS FORECAST. REMOVED THE
GFS/S INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES AND BUMPED UP ALL BLEND/S HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT TIMES...WHICH KEEPS READINGS IN THE 90S ALL THE WAY
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. IN THE SAME VEIN...LOWERED DEWPOINTS AND LOW
TEMPERATURES A BIT AS WELL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012

WILL DROP MENTION OF ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT MOST AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AS CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS DRY.
EVEN IN THE SOUTH DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER. BUT GROUND THERE IS
STILL QUITE DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 300800Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM STORMS NOT FAR NORTHWEST OF KIND WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AIRPORT SHORTLY...SHIFTING AND INCREASING WINDS.
ADDITIONAL CELLS WILL CONTINUE TO POP UP BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...SO
HAVE ADDED VCTS MENTION. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH CONVECTION IN
ILLINOIS FOR ADDITIONAL IMPACT...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP VCTS UNTIL
BETTER TIMING AND IMPACTS CAN BE ASCERTAINED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
CURRENT STORMS ACROSS WESTERN ILLINOIS COULD MAKE IT TO THE TAF
SITES AFTER 08Z. AT THE MOMENT IT LOOKS LIKE KLAF HAS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS...SO HAVE ADDED A VCTS MENTION. IF STORMS HOLD
TOGETHER KIND COULD BE IMPACTED...BUT UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH TO
MENTION.

CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IF
STORMS DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SOME COULD BE SEVERE.

MENTION OF STORMS AT TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON NOT JUSTIFIED WITH
CURRENT UNCERTAINTY. THUNDER MAY BE ADDED TO TAFS LATER AS
UNCERTAINTY REDUCED.

BETWEEN STORMS EITHER NO CEILINGS OR CEILINGS AT LEAST 6 THOUSAND
FEET.  LOCAL MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG OVER THE NORTH UNTIL 13Z.
OTHERWISE VISIBILITIES P6SM OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.

SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS. EXPECT GUSTS OF 15 TO
20 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING HOTTEST HOURS IN AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-035>042-
046>049-056-057.

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ043>045-
051>055-060>065-067>072.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....50
FIRE WEATHER...JH
AVIATION...JK/50

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
526 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-062>065-072-302130-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-DECATUR-JENNINGS-
526 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT. AN ENHANCED
THREAT FOR FIRES IS IN EFFECT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TONIGHT.

HAZARDS: HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM 99 TO 105 DEGREES AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES FROM 105 TO 110 DEGREES. ENHANCED THREAT FOR FIRES
SPREADING. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORM WILL BE LIGHTNING AND
DAMAGING WIND.

TIMING: THE HEAT THREAT WILL BE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ENHANCED
THREAT FOR FIRES WILL BE THIS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION: A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STALL OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AS THE AIR MASS BECOMES VERY HOT AND UNSTABLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK: AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM SUNDAY. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION..
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN SATURDAY
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

DISCUSSION: A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR
REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. THEN HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN WITH ANY STORM RELATED REPORTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN
ON SATURDAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ060-061-067>071-302130-
SULLIVAN-GREENE-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-
526 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR 105 DEGREES AND HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL BE AROUND 110 DEGREES. THERE IS ALSO AN ENHANCED
DANGER FOR FIRES SPREADING.

HAZARDS: EXCESSIVE HEAT...AND ENHANCED DANGERS FOR FIRES.

TIMING: THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

DISCUSSION: VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH RECORD
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE. THIS COMBINED WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PRODUCE AN INCREASED DANGER FOR FIRES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK: VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM SUNDAY.

DISCUSSION: HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES WILL BE THE
RULE OVER THE WEEKEND AND IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 90 MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AN
INCREASED RISK FOR FIRES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

PUMA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
323 AM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012

INZ021-028-029-300800-
CARROLL-TIPPECANOE-WARREN-
323 AM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR CARROLL...NORTHERN TIPPECANOE AND
NORTHEASTERN WARREN COUNTIES UNTIL 400 AM EDT...

AT 319 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MONTICELLO TO
OXFORD...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH
FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  WEST LAFAYETTE...
  DELPHI...
  YEOMAN...
  BATTLE GROUND...
  CAMDEN...
  FLORA...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4074 8653 4070 8652 4069 8637 4064 8637
      4043 8670 4045 8730 4048 8725 4048 8710
      4057 8709 4057 8678 4066 8678 4067 8676
      4073 8676 4074 8675
TIME...MOT...LOC 0723Z 272DEG 23KT 4078 8670 4046 8719

50

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
403 AM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012

INZ021-030-031-037>039-300845-
BOONE-CARROLL-CLINTON-HAMILTON-HOWARD-TIPTON-
403 AM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR CLINTON...CARROLL...NORTHERN
BOONE...HAMILTON...HOWARD AND TIPTON COUNTIES UNTIL 445 AM EDT...

AT 401 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES EAST OF
DELPHI TO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FRANKFORT...AND MOVING EAST AT 40
MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH
FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  FRANKFORT...
  KOKOMO...
  LEBANON...
  TIPTON...
  NOBLESVILLE...
  FLORA...
  RUSSIAVILLE...
  SHERIDAN...
  WESTFIELD...
  MORSE RESERVOIR...
  ATLANTA...
  ARCADIA...
  GREENTOWN...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4065 8637 4057 8636 4057 8586 3995 8587
      4008 8669 4042 8670 4068 8665
TIME...MOT...LOC 0803Z 273DEG 37KT 4059 8655 4018 8661

50

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