Special Weather Statement, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
210 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE WHICH HAS BROUGHT RECORD HEAT TO OUR REGION
WILL BE DEPRESSED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL
ALLOW A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM TO REACH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
REGION LATER TODAY BEFORE STALLING.  AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND.

IN THE EXTENDED...MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER QUITE WARM AND DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 941 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE CONTINUED HOT TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER ANY
CHANGES ARE NEEDED IN THE EXCESSIVE HEAT HEADLINES AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LATER TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHER PORTIONS.

SURFACE CHARTS INDICATED A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA AND THIS FRONT MAY MOVE TO THE
EXTREME NORTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA BEFORE STALLING OUT
TODAY. THERE IS SOME POOLING OF 70 PLUS DEWPOINTS NEAR THIS FRONT
AND MODELS HINT THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP
LATER TODAY ALONG THIS FRONT.  THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
MODELS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS OCCURS WITH THE NAM KEEPING ALL BUT FAR
NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA DRY TODAY.  THE GFS...RAPID
REFRESH AND EURO ARE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN SPREADING PRECIP
SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION WHILE THE NAM/CANADIAN KEEP THINGS MORE
CAPPED ACROSS OUR REGION.  FOR NOW WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
APPROACH WHICH WOULD INDICATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH
OF INDY...WHILE FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS STAY DRY. SPC HAS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OUR REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER LATER TODAY
AND EARLY TONIGHT.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES TODAY NORTHERN SECTIONS WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 20S AND THERE WILL BE
MORE CLOUDS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. MEANWHILE SOUTHERN AREAS
WILL BE ALMOST AS HOT AS YESTERDAY.  WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 90S ACROSS OUR NORTH WILL DOWNGRADE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING TO
A HEAT ADVISORY NORTH OF INDY TODAY...WHILE LEAVING MOST AREAS FROM
INDY AND SOUTH STILL IN AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.   EVEN IN THE
SOUTH...HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY NOT QUITE REACH 110 AS DRIER AIR WILL
SPREAD INTO OUR SOUTHERN SECTIONS LATER TODAY.  BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

...NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONTINUE
THIS WEEKEND ESPECIALLY SOUTH...

A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN GEORGIA TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE MODELS BRING A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR TONIGHT EXPECT A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NORTH
WITH DRY CONDITIONS SOUTH.  THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH BEST
CHANCES BEING NORTH OF I70 AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
BY.

EVEN THOUGH MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT COOLING...WILL LEAN SOMEWHAT
TOWARDS PERSISTENCE AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE JUST TO OUR
SOUTH AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM MID 90S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS TO
THE ALMOST 105 ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH. WILL PROBABLY NEED SOME TYPE OF
HEAT HEADLINES AT LEAST ACROSS OUR SOUTH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

PREFER TO STICK CLOSER TO THE CONSISTANT ECWMF AND ITS RENDITION OF
THE MORE EXPANSIVE UPPER DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH SHOULD KEEP IT
HOT AND DRY. WOULDN'T RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION HERE AND THERE
FROM THE MODEL QPF PROGS...BUT FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH NO MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 291800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

THE RAPID REFRESH REFLECTIVITY PROGS AND SPC CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
ILLINOIS STORM COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEAST TOWARDS AN INSTABILITY
AXIS AND MID 70 DEW POINTS POOLED IN THE VICNITY OF A STATIONARY
FRONT FROM NEAR LAF TO IND BY 18Z. SO...WILL WAIT TIL THE LAST
MINUTE AND DECIDE WHETHER OR NOT TO GO WITH VCTS OR TEMPO
THUNDERSTORM GROUPS. THIS WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON ANY HINTS OF
SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT. AT ANY RATE...WILL INCLUDE SOME FORM OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR AROUND 4 HOURS AT BOTH SITES. HUF AND BMG SHOULD
BE TOO FAR SOUTH AND WEST TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH SOME CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT FOG AT IND
AND LAF WHICH WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON IF EITHER OR BOTH SITES RECEIVE
ANY RAINFALL AND ALSO THE POSITION OF THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT AND
ITS HIGHER POOLED DEW POINTS. COULD ALSO SEE ADDITONAL THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER CHANCES
ARE TO LOW RIGHT NOW TO MENTION ANYTHING.

WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AT BMG AND HUF BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT AND
NEAR 10 KNOTS AGAIN LATE TOMORROW MORNING. WIND DIRECTIONS ARE MOPRE
PROBABLE AT IND AND LAF WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY AND WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORM GUSTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF ENHANCED FIRE DANGER. HUMIDITIES ACROSS OUR
SOUTH MAY APPROACH 25 PERCENT...BUT WINDS WILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO
REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA TODAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

RECORD HIGHS FOR KIND:

ALL TIME - 106 (7/14/1936...7/21/1934...7/22/1901)
JUNE - 104 (6/28/2012)
JUNE 29 - 100 (1934)
JUNE 30 - 97 (1933)

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ035-
036-043>048-051>057-060>065-067>072.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ021-028>031-
037>042-049.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JEH
NEAR TERM...JEH/SMF
SHORT TERM...JEH
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
128 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-062>065-072-301730-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-DECATUR-JENNINGS-
128 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM. AN
ENHANCED THREAT FOR FIRES IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.

IN ADDITION THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORMS BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

HAZARDS: HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM 99 TO 105 DEGREES AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES FROM 105 TO 110 DEGREES. ENHANCED THREAT FOR FIRES SPREADING.
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...MAINLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

TIMING: THE HEAT THREAT WILL BE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ENHANCED
THREAT FOR FIRES WILL BE THIS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION: A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STALL OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AS THE AIR MASS BECOMES VERY HOT AND UNSTABLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK: HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN SATURDAY WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

DISCUSSION: A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR
REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. THEN HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN WITH ANY STORM RELATED REPORTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN
ON SATURDAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ060-061-067>071-301730-
SULLIVAN-GREENE-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-
128 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR 105 DEGREES AND HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL BE AROUND 110 DEGREES. THERE IS ALSO AN ENHANCED DANGER
FOR FIRES SPREADING.

HAZARDS: EXCESSIVE HEAT...AND ENHANCED DANGERS FOR FIRES.

TIMING: THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

DISCUSSION: VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH RECORD
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE. THIS COMBINED WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PRODUCE AN INCREASED DANGER FOR FIRES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK: VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

DISCUSSION: HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES WILL BE THE
RULE OVER THE WEEKEND AND IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 90 MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AN
INCREASED RISK FOR FIRES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

SMF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
932 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-292145-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAFAYETTE...FRANKFORT...KOKOMO...
CRAWFORDSVILLE...ANDERSON...MUNCIE...INDIANAPOLIS...TERRE HAUTE...
SHELBYVILLE...BLOOMINGTON...COLUMBUS...VINCENNES...BEDFORD...
SEYMOUR
932 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY...

ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND LACK OF RAINFALL
WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE IGNITION TODAY. ANY
FIRES THAT DO DEVELOP MAY NEED ADDED RESOURCES TO BRING THEM UNDER
CONTROL. ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RECOVER A LITTLE AND
ONLY DROP DOWN TO THE 25 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE...THIS WILL HAVE ONLY
A SLIGHTLY MODERATING EFFECT ON THE TINDER DRY FUELS AND DROUGHT-
STRUCK VEGETATION.

OUTDOOR BURNING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED AND MAY BE ILLEGAL IN MANY
LOCATIONS. SEE YOUR LOCAL FIRE AGENCY FOR ANY ACTIVE BURN BANS AND
MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

SMF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
235 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-300000-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAFAYETTE...FRANKFORT...KOKOMO...
CRAWFORDSVILLE...ANDERSON...MUNCIE...INDIANAPOLIS...TERRE HAUTE...
SHELBYVILLE...BLOOMINGTON...COLUMBUS...VINCENNES...BEDFORD...
SEYMOUR
235 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY...

ANOTHER DAY OF RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND LACK OF RAINFALL WILL
LEAD TO AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE IGNITION TODAY. ANY FIRES
THAT DO DEVELOP MAY NEED ADDED RESOURCES TO BRING THEM UNDER
CONTROL. ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RECOVER A LITTLE AND
ONLY DROP DOWN TO THE 25 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE...THIS WILL HAVE ONLY
A SLIGHTLY MODERATING EFFECT ON THE TINDER DRY FUELS AND DROUGHT-
STRUCK VEGETATION.

OUTDOOR BURNING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED AND MAY BE ILLEGAL IN MANY
LOCATIONS. SEE YOUR LOCAL FIRE AGENCY FOR ANY ACTIVE BURN BANS AND
MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

SMF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
236 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

INZ028-029-035-291915-
FOUNTAIN-TIPPECANOE-WARREN-
236 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN FOUNTAIN...WESTERN
TIPPECANOE AND NORTHEASTERN WARREN COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

AT 230 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTH OF WILLIAMSPORT...OR 15 MILES SOUTH
OF FOWLER...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...
ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  WEST LAFAYETTE...
  SHADELAND...
  PURDUE UNIVERSITY...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 4050 8688 4025 8691 4032 8738 4048 8736
      4048 8710 4050 8709
TIME...MOT...LOC 1836Z 275DEG 12KT 4040 8724

KOCH