Special Weather Statement, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1247 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

UPPER RIDGE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN AND
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ENTIRE AREA THAT WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT THE WEATHER WILL DRY OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING IN
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL USHER IN SOME COOLER AIR AND DRY
WEATHER INTO THURSDAY WHEN A CUT OFF UPPER LOW BEGINS MOVING TOWARD
THE AREA TO BRING EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 807 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

RADAR TRENDS SHOW TSRA DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER SE
WI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS. VERY WARM AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...HOWEVER AS HEATING IS LOST OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS..INSTABILITY WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR TSRA.
NONETHELESS...RAPID REFRESH AND NAM BOTH SUGGEST TSRA DEVELOPMENT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA AFTER 03Z.
GIVEN THE RADAR TRENDS EXPECT A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS OR TSRA TO
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 06Z. GIVEN OUR RADAR TRENDS HAVE SLOWED
DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...PUSHING HIGHEST
POPS FOR MOST AREA AFTER 06Z-09Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON POPS TUESDAY AND THEN TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL GENERALLY USE A CONSENSUS. THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE JUST ABOUT THROUGH THE AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER IT
DOES SLOW DOWN AS IT LEAVES AND MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL
FOR POST FRONTAL SHOWERS. WITH THIS AND SOME INSTABILITY INDICATED
IN THE GFS WILL KEEP A CHANCE GOING IN THE SOUTHEAST AND TAPER TO
DRY IN THE NORTHWEST IN THE MORNING WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
FAR SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND DRY OUT THE WEATHER AS IT
BUILDS INTO THE AREA UNTIL THURSDAY. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WERE VERY
SIMILAR AND AN AVERAGE WAS GENERALLY USED...WITH HIGHS DROPPING FROM
THE MID 80S ON TUESDAY TO THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S ON THURSDAY.
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY ON TUESDAY WITH CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO DOMINATE. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS A CUT
OFF UPPER LOW SWINGS OUT OF THE PLAINS AND TOWARD THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND THIS FEATURE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 222 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

PER THE LATEST GUIDANCE...CENTRAL INDIANA APPEARS TO BE GOING THROUGH A
PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS WE GET AWAY FROM THESE LONG
STRETCHES OF DRY...HOT WEATHER. ENSEMBLES ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
THAT AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION APPEARS LIMITED HOWEVER AS BULK OF INSTABILITY REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT LEFT IN AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR
THUNDER THU NIGH/FRI SOUTH OF I-70. TEMPERATURES LOOK BELOW CLIMO
NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD...EVEN AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN TOWARD THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM COULD
POSSIBLY IMPACT THE AREA NEXT MON/MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 29/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1245 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NOT EXPECTING VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
EXCEPT ONLY BRIEFLY IF STRONG THUNDERSTORM SHOULD CROSS A TAF
SITE.

SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG COLD FRONT REMAINS PRIMARY
ACTION AT THE MOMENT. GIVEN SPEED OF THIS LINE...EXPECTING STORMS AT
TAFS SITES...BEGINNING 06Z-07Z AT KLAF...07Z-08Z KHUF...08Z-09Z AT
KIND AND 09Z-10Z AT KBMG. NEW CLUSTER OF STORMS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
OVER MISSOURI...AND ISOLATED CELLS NEAR RENSSELAER COULD BE SIGN OF
GROWTH AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AS INDICATED BY HI RES MODEL. STORM
ARRIVAL MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED AHEAD IF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
OCCURS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

CLOUDS DECKS HIGH BASED 5000-7000 FT. ALL MODELS PRETTY CONSISTENT
IN BRINGING COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN INDIANA BY 09Z-10Z AND TO
KIND BY 11Z. CLEARING SKIES ABOUT 3 TO 4 HOURS AFTER COLD FRONT
PASSAGE AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS INDIANA BY
291800Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...TUCEK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
746 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

INZ036>042-044>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-300000-
MONTGOMERY-BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
746 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: THERE IS CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.

HAZARDS: WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL...AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ARE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.

TIMING: THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

DISCUSSION: STORMS...ALTHOUGH STILL NOT SEVERE...WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK: THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF ANY STORMS WILL
BE SEVERE...BUT LIGHTNING IS A THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

DISCUSSION: AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA AT
THE END OF THE WEEK...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ021-028>031-035-043-300000-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-VERMILLION-
746 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

HAZARDS: DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE
THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS.

TIMING: THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM 11 PM TIL
4 AM.

DISCUSSION: THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LATE
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK: THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF ANY STORMS WILL
BE SEVERE...BUT LIGHTNING IS A THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

DISCUSSION: AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA AT
THE END OF THE WEEK...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

PUMA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
201 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

INZ069-070-290645-
LAWRENCE-MARTIN-
201 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LAWRENCE AND MARTIN
COUNTIES UNTIL 245 AM EDT...

AT 158 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SHOALS...OR 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BEDFORD...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  SHOALS...
  LACY...
  ROLAND...
  INDIAN SPRINGS...
  HURON...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3850 8693 3867 8693 3888 8679 3871 8648
      3868 8650 3868 8668 3853 8668 3852 8669
      3852 8683 3849 8690
TIME...MOT...LOC 0601Z 235DEG 17KT 3862 8682

TDUD