Special Weather Statement, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
941 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2012

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT A PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW IN THEIR
WAKE. THE DRY SPELL AND UNSEASONABLY HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID-WEEK. THAT IS WHEN THERE WILL BE A DRASTIC SWITCH IN
THE WEATHER PATTERN AND A RETURN TO MORE SPRING-LIKE WEATHER.
HIGHS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S AND 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

A SHORTWAVE STILL MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOUR AND THEN
WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY FROM HEATING WILL PROMPT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. PULLED LIKELIES AS
COVERAGE CURRENTLY ON RADAR AND THAT SHOWING UP IN RUC AND HRRR FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY IS NOT SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY THEM. PUT
HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTH THIS MORNING WITH ONE WAVE MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA NOW. TEMPERATURES COULD STILL REACH INTO THE UPPER
70S/LOW 80S WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER SO DID NOT ADJUST AT THIS
TIME. INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST BASED ON
SATELLITE TRENDS AND UPPER WAVE LOCATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

THE ONLY FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE
RECORD BREAKING HIGHS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH
RIDGING OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPS TO SOAR INTO THE LOW 80S ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY DUE TO AMPLE SUNSHINE. TRENDED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MODELS HAVE TENDED A LITTLE SLOWER IN BREAKING DOWN THE STRONG UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND MOVING THE UPPER LOW FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  PRECIP
WEDNESDAY NOW APPEARS VERY QUESTIONABLE.  WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSHOWERS OVER WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS LATE
WEDNESDAY AND DRY ELSEWHERE WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MODELS GRADUALLY SPREAD PRECIP EAST ACROSS OUR REGION...BUT SOMEWHAT
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.

AS FAR AS DAY 7 SOME MODELS START TO MOVE UPPER LOW ON TO THE
EAST...WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT NEAR BY.  FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS DAY 7.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...LEANED HEAVILY TOWARDS
PERSISTENCE WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE IS SLOWER TO BREAK DOWN.
CONSALL TEMPERATURES AND MEX TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO TRENDED A
LITTLE WARMER MOST OTHER PERIODS IN EXTENDED AND WILL FOLLOW WITH
A BLEND OF THESE TEMPERATURES IN THIS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/12Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...

MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. BUT THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE NEAR THE ILLINOIS BORDER MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. PRESENTLY ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND...BUT WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL MENTION CB IN TAFS AT KIND...KLAF AND KBMG.  CHANCES
ARE LOWER OF ANYTHING AFFECTING KHUF AND WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION
THERE.

FROM ABOUT 21Z ON ONLY SCATTERED CU AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS. MODELS KEEP US UNDER A MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST  PRESSURE
GRADIENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10
KNOTS TODAY AND SOUTH AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT.  DON'T EXPECT ANY FOG
ISSUES AS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WIND TO MIX ATMOSPHERE A LITTLE.
HOWEVER A BRIEF PERIOD OF 5-6 MILES VISIBILITIES NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AROUND SUNRISE TODAY AND AGAIN NEAR SUNRISE MONDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
406 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2012

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-190815-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
406 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

HAZARDS: LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND BRIEF
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

TIMING: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION: AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
A THREAT WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS.

DISCUSSION: DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK. HOWEVER...A
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A RETURN OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO REPORT ANY HAIL...GUSTY WINDS OR LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
955 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2012

INZ028-035-036-043-181445-
FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-VERMILLION-WARREN-
955 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL FOUNTAIN...NORTHWESTERN
MONTGOMERY...NORTHWESTERN VERMILLION AND SOUTHWESTERN WARREN COUNTIES
UNTIL 1045 AM EDT...

AT 952 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES WEST OF COVINGTON...OR 6 MILES EAST OF
DANVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL THE SIZE OF DIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  COVINGTON...
  VEEDERSBURG...
  PERRYSVILLE...
  NEWTOWN...
  HILLSBORO...
  MELLOTT...
  WINGATE...
  WAYNETOWN...
  NEW RICHMOND...

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 4025 8753 4024 8709 4021 8709 4021 8693
      4000 8695 4006 8754
TIME...MOT...LOC 1355Z 274DEG 23KT 4015 8747

SMF