Areal Flood Warning 7, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
420 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

A COLD FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH THE AREA TODAY THEN REMAIN NEARBY
INTO FRIDAY. THIS FRONT ALONG WITH AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG IT WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN AND PROVIDE
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

A LOW LEVEL JET IS PROVIDING THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS AREAS FROM MISSOURI INTO OHIO AT THE MOMENT. THIS JET WILL
SLIDE EAST THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD STILL BE GENERATING CONVECTION
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. RAIN IS CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE GIVEN ORIENTATION OF THE JET.

THIS AFTERNOON THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. STILL SOME WEAK
UPPER SUPPORT...SO THREAT FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE. THERE COULD BE
SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AT THE MOMENT AM NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO TIME THE RAIN WITH THAT MUCH DETAIL. LATER
UPDATES CAN REFINE THE TIMING.

GIVEN ALL THE ABOVE WENT LIKELY POPS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTHWEST.
CONTINUED THESE POPS ALL DAY.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE RECENTLY THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR NORTH RAIN
WILL GET AS WAVES MOVE ALONG THE FRONT IN THE SHORT TERM. OLD 12Z
ECMWF IS FARTHER SOUTH COMPARED WITH LATEST NAM/GFS. GFS ENSEMBLES
ARE IN BETWEEN. WILL ALSO STICK WITH THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FOR NOW
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES AND CHANGES IN MODEL RUNS.

TONIGHT SOME FORCING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS WAVES
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE UPPER FLOW. THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE
FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...AND THE FRONT SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR
RAIN DEVELOPMENT. THUS WENT LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH /CLOSEST TO
THE FRONT/ TAPERING TO NO POPS IN THE FAR NORTH.

A SIMILAR SETUP WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL HAVE SAGGED FARTHER SOUTH...BUT AN UPPER JET STREAK WILL
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING. WENT CHANCE POPS SOUTH AND DRY NORTH.

UPPER FLOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO TURN MORE NORTHWEST AND SHOULD HELP
PUSH FRONT FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED
WITH LOW END POPS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING
CHANCES AS THE FRONT AND ANY UPPER SUPPORT DEPARTS.

FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO A
MODEL BLEND AS THIS BEST REPRESENTS EXPECTED CONDITIONS AND ACCOUNTS
FOR ANY UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE ECMWF CONTINUES
TO KEEP AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO AND THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPEARS
TO BE PARKED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
RESULTANT LOWER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD IS
DRY...NORTHERLY FLOW. THUS WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST DURING
THIS PERIOD AS SUGGESTED BY ALLBLEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 0900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

TRENDED THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OF THE TAF FORECAST TOWARD
PERSISTENCE OF VFR CIGS AND CONDITIONS.

RADAR TRENDS OF ONGOING PRECIP IN THE AREA INDICATE A DECREASING
TREND. WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND DECENT MIXING PERSISTING...MVFR OR
WORSE CONDITIONS HAVE YET TO DEVELOP ANYWHERE WITHIN THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD OVER THE AREA...NOT MUCH COOLING IS
EXPECTED. THUS WILL KEEP THE ONGOING VFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA A
BIT LONGER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR 260600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA OVERNIGHT AS AN 850 MB JET
POINTS INTO THIS REGION.  TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS AND MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATE AREAS OF STRATUS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS SOME
LOW LEVEL COOLING OCCURS. WILL FORECAST CEILINGS ABOUT 3 THOUSAND
FEET MOST AREAS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND CEILINGS OF 1 TO 2 THOUSAND
FEET BY 09Z OR 10Z AND CONTINUING TO ABOUT MIDDAY. FOG POSSIBLE SOME
AREAS OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

THERE WILL BE PROBABLY ENOUGH DAYTIME MIXING TO MIX OUT ANY STRATUS
BY MIDDAY. MODELS INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH
ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.  ONLY CHANGE
WILL BE TO DOWNPLAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN KLAF AREA AS MOST
OF THIS WILL OCCUR FARTHER SOUTH. OTHERWISE WILL MENTION VCTS MOST
AREAS WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OUR REGION.

WINDS WILL BE 6 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHWEST OR WEST AROUND
10 KNOTS BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.  WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY 8 KNOTS
OR LESS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIGHT AT KBMG.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JH/JP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
455 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

INZ043>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-270900-
VERMILLION-PARKE-PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-
OWEN-MORGAN-JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-
BARTHOLOMEW-DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
455 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

HAZARDS: DEADLY LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN ARE ALL POSSIBLE.

TIMING: ANY TIME TODAY AND TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION: A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION: A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. LIGHTNING IS A THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ021-028>031-035>042-270900-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-
455 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SEVERE.

HAZARDS: DEADLY LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN ARE ALL POSSIBLE.

TIMING: ANY TIME TODAY AND TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION: A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK: NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AND KEEP DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)