Areal Flood Advisory 2, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
600 AM EST TUE JAN 17 2012

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH
THIS MORNING AND DROP TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AROUND THURSDAY. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE END
OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

AS OF 230 AM THIS MORNING...SHORT RANGE MODEL DATA AND LATEST
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE COLD FRONT WILL BE CLOSE TO THE NORTHWEST
BORDER ZONES BY 171200Z. THIS IS MUCH SLOWER THAN WHAT WAS
ORIGINALLY DEPICTED IN THE MODELS. WIDESPREAD SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA (WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY LIES) AND OFF TO OUR NW AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BETWEEN 11-17Z TODAY...BUT EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN
AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD. THE PRE-COLD FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL HAVE
LIMITED MOISTURE CONTENT WITH HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OTHERWISE
LIMITED BY THE PREVALENCE OF CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS TODAY. THIS
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WILL TEND TO BE ROOTED JUST ABOVE A
SHALLOW/MARGINALLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. STILL...STRONG
CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...AS IS EVIDENCED
UPSTREAM...WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 TO 50 MPH. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE
HWO ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO PROVE CHALLENGING...AS OF THIS HOUR THE SW
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS WARMED TO NEAR 60 DEGREES! KIND
ITSELF HAS HELD STEADY AT 57 FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS. WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE DELAYED UNTIL LATER TODAY...EXPECT THESE WARM TEMPS
TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...AND FINALLY BEGIN TO START
FALLING BY THE AFTERNOON...FIRST BEGINNING ACROSS THE NW.

THE SLOWER TIMING OF THIS FRONT HAS ALSO IMPACTED OUR CHANCES FOR
SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX THIS AFTERNOON. HELD OFF ON MENTIONING -SN
ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES AND -RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR CENTRAL INDIANA UNTIL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. (20-21Z TIMEFRAME) MOISTURE WILL BE EXTREMELY
LIMITED BY THEN AND ONLY CHANCES ARE ONLY GOOD FOR 20-40%...SO
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE NIL TO A FEW TENTHS AT MOST.

OF COURSE EVERYTHING IN THIS DISCUSSION HINGES ON THE SPECIFIC
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND IS SUBJECT TO UPDATES BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

WENT WITH A DRY...AND COOLER FORECAST AFTER 00Z WED AS CAA SWEEPS
OVER THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NE COUNTIES WHERE SOME -SN OR
FLURRIES MAY LINGER BEFORE DEPARTING TO THE NE AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS AWAY. AGAIN...MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION ABOVE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.

FORECAST THEN REMAINS DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH. NEXT A PESKY WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM IS PROGGED
TO PASS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS
AREN/T SHOWING TOO MUCH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...HOWEVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOWS FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR ON THURSDAY FOR LIGHT SNOW...WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATION OF A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

STUCK CLOSE TO ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION. MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY
SUGGESTS TWO SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE LONG TERM...ONE
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND ANOTHER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING HOW COLD IT WILL BE
AND THUS PRECIP TYPE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SNOW
APPEARS FAIRLY LIKELY AT SOME POINT IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE
LATTER SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE ALL RAIN AS THERMAL PROFILES WARM
SIGNIFICANTLY BY THEN.

ASIDE FROM THE LARGER SCALE DETAILS...SIGNIFICANT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DISCREPANCIES EXIST...THUS THE REASON FOR LITTLE
DEVIATION FROM INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/12Z TAFS/...

MVFR MUCH OF THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL IMPACT MAINLY IND/BMG...BUT BE NEAR HUF/LAF
DURING THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF
RECOVERY TO VFR AFTERWARDS AT SOME SITES...BUT CEILINGS SHOULD
QUICKLY COME BACK TO MVFR. COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE SITES
AROUND MIDDAY TODAY...WITH A QUICK TRANSITION TO WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH SOME RATHER STRONG GUSTS...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 35KT.

SOME SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT WILL
JUST HOLD ONTO A VCSH MENTION AT THIS TIME...AS DEEP MOISTURE BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BE LACKING IN OUR AREA.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING...BEFORE RELAXING LATE TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL ALSO BREAK UP
LATE TONIGHT AS WELL.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
458 AM EST TUE JAN 17 2012

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-181000-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
458 AM EST TUE JAN 17 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY EARLY TODAY. LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THERE IS A CHANCE SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE OVER TO
LIGHT SNOW OR A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX.

HAZARDS: LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 TO 50 MPH EARLY
TODAY...IN ADDITION TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL.

LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TIMING: THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW STARTING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION: A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH EARLY TODAY...AND POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
LATER TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

OUTLOOK: SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...AND FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

DISCUSSION: SEVERAL STORM SYSTEMS WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA DURING THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM RELATED
REPORTS.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

SMF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
555 AM EST TUE JAN 17 2012

INZ052>054-060>062-067-068-171200-
CLAY-DAVIESS-GREENE-KNOX-MONROE-MORGAN-OWEN-SULLIVAN-
555 AM EST TUE JAN 17 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN CLAY...NORTHWESTERN
DAVIESS...GREENE...NORTHEASTERN KNOX...NORTHWESTERN MONROE...SOUTHERN
MORGAN...OWEN AND SOUTHERN SULLIVAN COUNTIES UNTIL 700 AM EST...

AT 548 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES NORTHWEST
OF SPENCER TO CHAUNCEY...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  SPENCER...
  MARTINSVILLE...
  BLOOMFIELD...
  PAXTON...
  DEVORE...
  DUGGER...
  VICKSBURG...
  FREEDOM...
  PLEASANTVILLE...
  WORTHINGTON...
  STINESVILLE...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3943 8690 3946 8626 3880 8706 3879 8752
      3885 8753 3886 8756 3889 8755 3891 8753
      3896 8752 3897 8753 3898 8758 3900 8758
TIME...MOT...LOC 1053Z 263DEG 45KT 3939 8685 3882 8775

SMF

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