Areal Flood Advisory 13, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
700 PM EDT FRI MAR 30 2012

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THIS EVENING. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WILL BE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP IT DRY UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. FINALLY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST ALLOWING FOR A DRY END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S AND 80S EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

MAIN CHALLENGE TO THE NEAR TERM WILL BE TIMING THE COLD FRONT AND
RESULTANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING AS WELL AS ANY ASSOCIATED SEVERE WEATHER.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON SLIDING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS EVENING TO SOMEWHERE NEAR A RUSHVILLE TO
BLOOMINGTON TO VINCENNES LINE AROUND 00Z AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND 03Z. NOT EXPECTED ANY POST FRONTAL ACTIVITY
WITH DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION...DRIER AIR AND LOSS OF SUNSHINE.
LATEST RAPID REFRESH REFLECTS PRETTY CLOSE WHERE THE BACK EDGE OF
THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE IF NOT POSSIBLY AN HOUR OR TWO SLOWER TO PUSH
THE STORMS THROUGH. AT ANY RATE...AT VALID 00Z TONIGHT TIME
FRAME...SHOULD SEE ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE FRONT WITH NAM12 SOUNDING CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR TO AROUND 35 KNOTS. ANY DISCRETE STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO A
LINE AS MODELS ARE ALL INDICATING AN ELONGATED AND DECENT UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION FIELD. ALSO...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT OF AN 80+ KNOT UPPER JET ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WHICH SHOULD HELP PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT AND UPPER LEVEL
EVACUATION. OVERALL...SPC SLIGHT RISK LOOKS ON THE MARK. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGS AROUND TONIGHT PER MODEL TIME SECTIONS...SO NOT
EXPECTING FULL CLEARING DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH 04Z ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

MOS TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TONIGHT AND APPEAR REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY QPF IS THE MAIN FOCUS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE DO TO VARIOUS MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING A FRONTAL
POSITION ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE AND
QPF. PER THE MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FROM THE
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...DECIDED TO GO MAINLY WITH
THE 12Z GFS WHICH BRINGS A BACKDOOR FRONT SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT THEN STALLS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
BEST MOISTURE FROM THE GFS ALBEIT LIMITED STRETCHES JUST NORTH OF
OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AND SETTLES ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN
FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MEANWHILE...MODELS ALL
HAVE A SHARP UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST WITH PERIODIC WEAK
IMPULSES DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY. THIS ALL SUGGEST...THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...BUT
WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE WITH MODELS NOT COMING TOGETHER
BETTER. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK DRY WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGING.

MET MOS CONTINUES TO LOOK TOO COOL BASED ON 850 MILLIBAR FORECASTING
CHART ALONG WITH TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ENSEMBLES IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED
TO BE MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA AROUND NEXT TUESDAY. IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THE EXTENDED WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THIS SYSTEM MAY CUTOFF ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE MEMBERS KEEP THIS TROUGH FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE. WILL KEEP THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD DRY FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 310000Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO LOW MVFR IN STRATUS
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

CONVECTION WILL BE NEAR THE KBMG SITE AT VALID TIME...BUT SHOULD
THEN SINK SOUTH OF THE AREA WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 05Z WHEN STRATUS SHOULD DEVELOP AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN. AT THE MOMENT EXPECT CEILINGS NEAR THE LOW END
OF MVFR...WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG.

STRATUS WILL HANG ON DURING THE MORNING HOURS THEN FINALLY BREAK UP
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL GO FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...50

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
337 PM EDT FRI MAR 30 2012

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-311000-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
337 PM EDT FRI MAR 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA LATE THIS EVENING.

HAZARDS: FREQUENT LIGHTNING...DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...HEAVY
RAIN AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

TIMING: THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 1100 PM EDT.

DISCUSSION: A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THIS EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH MAY BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK: THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME...LIGHTNING IS A THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM.

DISCUSSION: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A THUNDERSTORM THREAT
TO CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

KOCH

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
801 PM EDT FRI MAR 30 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0801 PM     HAIL             VINCENNES               38.68N  87.51W
03/30/2012  M0.25 INCH       KNOX               IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER IND1200134

ELB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
806 PM EDT FRI MAR 30 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     HAIL             4 E VINCENNES           38.68N  87.44W
03/30/2012  E0.70 INCH       KNOX               IN   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

EVENT NUMBER IND1200135

ELB