Special Weather Statement, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
650 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 258 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012

EARLY MORNING SURFACE MAP SHOWS A WARM FRONT ARCHING NORTHEAST
FROM LOW PRESSURE IN KANSAS...REACHING INTO NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS IN SOUTHWEST IOWA AND NORTHWEST
MISSOURI...AS LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSES IN THAT AREA AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH KANSAS. FURTHER EAST...CLOUDS HAVE
OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE CWA...FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND THE WEST.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MAIN FOCUS IN THIS PERIOD IS WITH THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THE
CONVECTION TODAY...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES A GOOD 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

CONVECTION ACROSS IOWA/MISSOURI EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MOST OF THE 00Z MODELS FOCUS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA AS MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE ACTIVITY
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING...WITH THE 4KM SPC-WRF LINGERING SOME
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE I-72 CORRIDOR. AS SUCH...
WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS THIS MORNING...WITH AROUND 30 PERCENT
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT THE SOUTHEAST CWA MAINLY DRY...
WITH JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCES.

UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY IN NEW MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
MISSOURI BY LATE EVENING. LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TO OUR
WEST AHEAD OF THE WAVE...HELPING PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT. SOME OF THE RAIN WILL LINGER INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY...BUT SHOULD END BY MIDDAY AS THE WAVE PASSES THE
AREA.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...THE RAIN THREAT MAY CAUSE SOME COMPLICATIONS
WITH HIGHS TODAY...BUT STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD GET
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EVERYWHERE. MAY SEE A COUPLE
80 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WHICH IS MOST LIKELY TO
SEE ANY APPRECIABLE SUNSHINE TODAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY STILL
LOOKING TO SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

TIMING OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE REMAINS A CHALLENGE...AS THE
EVENING MODELS HAVE CONTINUED WITH A SLOWER TREND. MODELS FOCUS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE MOST LIKELY TIME...WITH A LOT OF THE
ASSOCIATED RAIN ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. MOST RAIN CHANCES ON
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY WEST OF I-55...WITH
THE RAIN SPREADING EASTWARD IN THE EVENING. BROAD UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT
INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH
GETS CLOSER TO THE STATE.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS VERY COOL BUT MAINLY DRY. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS
SHIFTED QUITE A BIT AND COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS SOLUTION OF
BOOTING THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...AND A
SURGE OF CHILLY AIR IN THE UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 50 DEGREES ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

GEELHART
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 650 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012

ALL SITES WILL START AS VFR WHILE AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS AREA
OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ENE INTO THE AREA AND
PROGS INDICATE IT AFFECTING PIA AROUND 14Z. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO
GROUP FOR MVFR CIGS AND VIS AS THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVER THROUGH.
TIMING WILL BE SIMILAR AT SPI...BUT BELIEVE THUNDER WILL BE NORTH
OF THE SITE...BUT STILL WILL HAVE VCTS AND TEMPO SHOWER FOR COUPLE
OF HOURS THIS MORNING. BMI WILL SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS/FORECAST AS
SPI BUT AN HOUR LATER WITH THE SHOWERS. UNSURE ABOUT PCPN AT
DEC/CMI THIS MORNING SO WILL JUST TIME A VCSH AT BOTH SITES FOR
LATER THIS MORNING. ANY PCPN REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD IS
UNCLEAR EXCEPT FOR PIA AND HAVE VCSH AT 00Z. WILL JUST LOWER
CLOUDS AT SPI AND BMI THIS EVENING. MODEL FORECASTS HAVE PCPN
REMAING NORTHWEST OF I-55 AND ILLINOIS RIVER...SO ALL OTHER SITES
WILL JUST SEE MID CLOUDS THIS EVENING THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AUTEN
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
530 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>042-047>051-231100-
CASS-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-PEORIA-
SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
530 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES TOWARD ILLINOIS. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND
DANGEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE
AGAIN SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. ANOTHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ043>046-052>057-061-231100-
CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-COLES-DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-MACON-MOULTRIE-
PIATT-SHELBY-VERMILION-
530 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES TOWARD ILLINOIS. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND
DANGEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE
AGAIN SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. ANOTHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-231100-
CLARK-CLAY-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-RICHLAND-
530 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS
A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES TOWARD ILLINOIS.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE
AGAIN SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. ANOTHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

AUTEN

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