Special Weather Statement, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
604 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

INITIAL CONCERN IS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS INTO EARLY EVENING
MAINLY EAST OF THE IL RIVER. SHORT RANGE MODELS FAIRLY SIMILAR
THROUGH MON WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION BY SAT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. PATCHY FROST STILL A POSSIBILITY OVER
THE IL RIVER VALLEY LATER SAT NIGHT AND IN EASTERN IL LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT. MET AND MAV GUIDANCE TEMPS SIMILAR THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO.

MID AFTERNOON SURFACE MAP SHOWS 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING
ALONG THE EASTERN IA/MO BORDER WITH ITS WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHWARD TOWARD I-74...AS ENE WINDS TURN SOUTH WITH ITS PASSAGE AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
TEMPS RISING AS WELL INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S IN SW IL IN
WARM SECTOR WHERE ALSO MORE SUNSHINE. SOME INSTABILITY WITH CAPES
PEAKING FROM 1000-1500 J/KG EAST OF THE IL RIVER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING WIND SHEAR AS WELL DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING AS 35-40KT WSW LOW LEVEL JET WHILE ALSO GETTING
STRONGER THAN 80-100 KT JET ALOFT DIVING SE INTO IL LATE TODAY
ALONG WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL IL FROM IA LATE TODAY.
VGP PARMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IN SE IL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SO CONCUR WITH SPC/S UPGRADE TO A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
MAINLY SE OF THE IL RIVER. SPC HAS 15% RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH 5% RISK OF TORNADOES.

LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS A BIT MORE TO 1005 MB AND DIVES SE INTO SW IL
BY SUNSET AND THEN TURN NE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER THIS EVENING.
RUC13 AND HRRR MODELS KEEP HEALTHY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN IL THROUGH MID EVENING AND THEN
DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING AND TRENDED FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION.
WESTERN IL SHOULD BE DRY THIS EVENING WITH CONVECTION EAST OF
THERE. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NW OF THE IL RIVER TO
THE LOWER 50S SE OF I-70 IN SE IL.

UNSEASONABLY STRONG 533 DM 500 MB DOUBLE BARREL LOW OVER NW
ONTARIO TO CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT/SAT WHILE SENDING A STRONG SHORT WAVE FROM
LAKE WINNIPEG SE INTO EASTERN IA/NORTHERN IL/SW WI BY SUNRISE SAT
AND INTO NORTHERN INDIANA BY 18Z/1 PM SAT. CONTINUE 20% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT NORTH OF PEORIA AND 20-30% CHANCE NE OF I-74
SAT MORNING ALONG WITH GUSTS NORTH WINDS UP TO 30 MPH NE AREAS.
HIGHS AROUND 60F FROM I-74 NE SAT AND MID 60S IN SE IL AND SW OF
SPRINGFIELD.

1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER SASKETCHEWAN TO BUILD INTO THE EASTERN
PLAINS SUNDAY AND RETURN LIGHER WINDS TO THE AREA BUT CONTINUE
COOL WEATHER. FROST IS LIKELY OVER THE IL RIVER VALLEY LATER SAT
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S. APPEARS SHY OF RECORD LOWS AROUND
30F EARLY SUNDAY MORNING SEP 23 BUT NEAR FREEZING TEMPS POSSIBLE
IN NW IL NW OF KNOX AND STARK COUNTIES. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE
OVER EASTERN IL LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S AS SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS OVER CENTRAL/SE IL AND EVENTUALLY INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY DAWN MON. HIGHS SUNDAY STAYING COOL IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S DESPITE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TAKING SHAPE LATER MON NIGHT THROUGH MID
WEEK AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL EJECT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TOWARD IL AND ALSO HAVE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHWARD AND
POSSIBLY LINGERING NEAR CENTRAL/SE IL FOR A FEW DAYS DURING
MIDWEEK. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND FOR A FEW DAY BUT THINK GFS IS LINGERING QPF TOO LONGER
INTO LATE WEEK AND LEANED TOWARD THE FURTHER SOUTH ECWMF MODEL
WITH THE FRONT BY THU/FRI. GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO ALLBLEND POPS
DURING NEXT WORK WEEK AND LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTHERN AREAS
AROUND THU. TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL BY TUE AND COOLING
OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER NEXT WEEK AND COULD BE MORE OF A
TEMPERATURE CONTRAST THAN WHAT ALLBLEND IS SHOWING DURING 2ND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK DEPENING ON POSITION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

KH

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 600 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OVER WEST CENTRAL IL SHIFTS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL IL. IT APPEARS AS THE
LOW SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES...THE HIGHER THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE IN DEC AND CMI FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING.
SOME OF THOSE SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY TAKE CIGS DOWN TO MVFR BUT FOR THE
MOST PART...BASED ON THE CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS OUT WEST AND NW...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TOUGH WIND FORECAST
EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE SFC LOW SLIPS JUST SOUTH OF SPI AND DEC.
LOOKS AS IF WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. OTHERWISE...AT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES...NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH A TREND TOWARDS WEST
TO SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WHICH IS
SLATED TO PUSH ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY MORNING WITH GUSTY NW WINDS
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

SMITH
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
325 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012

ILZ027>030-036-040-041-047>051-221200-
CASS-FULTON-KNOX-MARSHALL-MASON-MENARD-MORGAN-PEORIA-SANGAMON-
SCHUYLER-SCOTT-STARK-
325 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS FROM WESTERN ILLINOIS TO
SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS TONIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

ILZ031-037-038-042>046-052>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-221200-
CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DE WITT-
DOUGLAS-EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-LOGAN-MACON-MCLEAN-
MOULTRIE-PIATT-RICHLAND-SHELBY-TAZEWELL-VERMILION-WOODFORD-
325 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS FROM WESTERN ILLINOIS TO
SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING FOR LARGE HAIL WITH SOME
STORMS POSSIBLY PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING.

GOETSCH

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
359 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012

ILZ045-046-212145-
CHAMPAIGN-VERMILION-
359 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CHAMPAIGN AND
SOUTHWESTERN VERMILION COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

AT 358 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SAVOY...OR 6 MILES SOUTH OF CHAMPAIGN...
MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  PHILO...
  SIDNEY...
  ST. JOSEPH...
  HOMER...
  OGDEN...
  ALLERTON...

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...WILLARD AIRPORT...JAMAICA AND
KICKAPOO STATE PARK.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 4019 8765 3988 8765 3994 8830 4013 8830
TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 269DEG 43KT 4003 8820

BARNES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
404 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     HAIL             E SAN JOSE              40.31N 89.60W
09/21/2012  M1.00 INCH       MASON              IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LOGAN COUNTY EMA RELAYED REPORT FROM THE SAN JOSE FIRE
            CHIEF...HAIL COVERING THE GROUND LIKE SNOW...FROM 0.5 TO
            1 INCH DIAMETER.

&&

GOETSCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
416 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0408 PM     HAIL             1 ENE PHILO             40.01N 88.14W
09/21/2012  M0.75 INCH       CHAMPAIGN          IL   COCORAHS

&&

GOETSCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
637 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012

ILZ056-057-062-063-220030-
CLARK-COLES-CUMBERLAND-EDGAR-
637 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CLARK...NORTHEASTERN
CUMBERLAND...SOUTHEASTERN COLES AND SOUTHERN EDGAR COUNTIES UNTIL 730
PM CDT...

AT 635 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR JANESVILLE...OR 7 MILES NORTH OF TOLEDO...
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WESTFIELD...
  CASEY...
  MARTINSVILLE...
  CLARKSVILLE...
  MARSHALL...
  OLIVER...

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...FOX RIDGE STATE PARK...UNION
CENTER...HUTTON AND LINCOLN TRAIL STATE PARK.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 3933 8759 3931 8761 3930 8759 3929 8759
      3929 8761 3926 8760 3922 8760 3929 8831
      3946 8833 3953 8756
TIME...MOT...LOC 2337Z 266DEG 32KT 3938 8820

SMITH