Special Weather Statement, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
859 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 859 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

STORMS ARE FINALLY PROGRESSING ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES... AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NW IL. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN
ANY OF OUR COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY THE LONGER WE GET AFTER SUNSET.
ONE MODERATELY STRONG STORM PRODUCED PEA SIZE TO HALF INCH HAIL
AND KNOCKED DOWN A FEW 2" BRANCHES IN WESTERN KNOX COUNTY.
OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE INITIAL PHASE OF STORMS HAVE REMAINED
WEAKER THAN THAT BASED ON RADAR AND GROUND TRUTH.

WE UPDATED THE POPS AND WEATHER TO PUT THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS BEFORE 06Z WEST OF I-55...AND AFTER 06Z EAST OF
I-55...BASED ON TIMING THE LINE OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE LINE WILL BE A TOUGH CALL...AND
SOME AREAS MAY GET MISSED BY A BREAK IN THE LINE. THEREFORE WE
ONLY WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES THIS
EVENING...WITH CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE ELSE
OVERNIGHT.

LOW TEMPS WILL BE A BIT TRICKY...AND WILL BE TIED TO HOW SOON THE
COLD AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT MAINLY OUR
NW COUNTIES WILL SEE THE AFFECTS OF THE COLDER AIR BEFORE
SUNRISE...AND WE HAVE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S ACROSS THAT AREA
ALREADY. SKY CONDITIONS WILL ONLY BE CLOUDY IN THE FEW HOURS
SURROUNDING THE PASSAGE OF ANY SHOWERS/STORMS. OTHERWISE SKIES
SHOULD RETURN TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

WE CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT FOG IN OUR NW AREAS AROUND SUNRISE
IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN TONIGHT. BUT IT SHOULD BE WEAK ENOUGH
TO NOT HAVE TO INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS/FORECAST.

AN EARLIER FORECAST UPDATE WAS SENT FOR THE EVENING GRIDS...AND
NO ADDITIONAL UPDATE IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

SHIMON
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 644 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012...FOR THE 00Z TAFS

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS TONIGHT...REACHING
PIA BTWN 01Z-02Z...PROGRESSING EASTWARD OVER THE OTHER TERMINALS
REACHING CMI BTWN 06Z-07Z. THE FRONT IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS...AND
STORMS HAVE NOT BEEN MAINTAINING INTENSITY FOR VERY LONG. WE DO
HAVE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR THE STORMS...BUT THE
OVERALL SOUNDING IS JUST TOO DRY TO SUPPORT LONG LIVED
STORMS/SUPERCELLS. SOME ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS THIS EVENING...BUT
STORM INTENSITY WILL DROP AFTER 02Z-03Z. WE KEPT VCTS IN ALL TAFS
FOR 3-4 HOUR WINDOWS...BUT CONFIDENCE OF STORMS HITTING ANY SITE
BESIDES PIA IS LOW. SHORT LIVED IFR/VLIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
PIA...OTHERWISE MVFR MAY BE AS LOW AS THE OTHER TERMINAL SITES GO
WITH ANY SHOWERS/STORMS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN SW AT 12-14KT UNTIL FROPA WHEN WINDS VEER TO THE
NW. W-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY TO 12-16KT...AS COOLER AND
DRIER AIR ARRIVES.

SHIMON
&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED 315 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...

BLOOMINGTON  94/1895
CHAMPAIGN    94/1991
DECATUR      94/1991+
EFFINGHAM    91/1991+
GALESBURG    93/2006
LINCOLN      94/2006
PEORIA       95/2006
SPRINGFIELD  94/2006

GEELHART
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 259 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

MAIN CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE INCLUDE CHC OF PCPN TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND ANOTHER CHC OF PCPN THUR THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
SHORT TERM...BUT DIFFER IN THE EXTENDED WITH THE LOCATION OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRSS THAT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A BLEND OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS LOOKS GOOD WHILE A
COMPROMISE OF THE LONG TERM MODELS SEEMS BEST FOR NOW.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

FRONT STILL LOCATED BACK IN IOWA AND MO AND MOVING INTO SOME MID
60S DEWPOINT AIR IN WESTERN IL. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS MOVED THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA EARLIER THIS
MORNING AND THEN DISSIPATED. SATELLITE LOOP SEEMS TO SHOW AN AREA
OF ENHANCED CU IN PARTS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL IL MOVING EAST.
HOWEVER...THIS BOUNDARY IS MOVING INTO A LESS FAVORABLE AIRMASS
WHERE DEWPTS ARE LOWER. SO APPEARS DEVELOPMENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING SEEMS BETTER WITH THE
FRONT BACK WEST. THIS BEING POSSIBLE...WILL KEEP CHC AND LIKELY
POPS GOING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THEN TAPER THEM FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST DURING THE EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MAY HAVE TO ISSUE FORECAST WITH A PRE-FIRST
PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. BEYOND
TONIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW THROUGH
WED NIGHT AS COOL CANADIAN AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

BY WED NIGHT...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. BY THUR THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION AND SHOULD BRING LIKELY PCPN TO THE AREA
FOR THURSDAY. MODEL FORECASTS SEEM TO INDICATE THE LOW PRSS AREA
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. PCPN TYPE SHOULD MAINLY BE
SHOWERS...BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW BEHIND THE COMING FRONT
DUE TO THE COOLER AIR HOLDING BACK UNTIL WED AND LATER IN THE
WEEK. GUIDANCE NUMBERS LOOK OK AT THE MOMENT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE LOW PRESS AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AND INTO
THE GRT LKS REGION THUR NIGHT. THE SPEED AT WHICH THIS SYSTEM
MOVES AWAY FROM IL DIFFERS IN THE MODELS. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER
THAN THE GFS. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS LINGER SOME OF THE PCPN BACK
IN THE AREA AS REGION REMAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND SFC CYCLONIC
FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SO WILL KEEP CHC POPS SOMEWHERE IN THE
CWA THROUGH THEN. THEN EXPECTING DRY WEATHER SAT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS RIDGING RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS THEN DIFFER FOR
MONDAY AS THE GFS TRIES TO BRING ANOTHER FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AND
THE ECMWF IS DRY. ANY PCPN WOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2-THIRDS
OF THE CWA...SO WILL JUST HAVE SMALL CHC POPS IN THAT AREA FOR
NOW.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR FRI AND SAT BUT THEN WARM BACK
TO NORMAL AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

AUTEN

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
340 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>045-047>053-291100-
CASS-CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-DE WITT-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MACON-MARSHALL-
MASON-MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-PEORIA-PIATT-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-
STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
340 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...SHOULD THEY DEVELOP...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR LARGE HAIL
THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY...PRIMARILY BETWEEN 6 PM
AND 10 PM.

ILZ046-054>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-291100-
CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-
JASPER-LAWRENCE-MOULTRIE-RICHLAND-SHELBY-VERMILION-
340 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT...PRIMARILY BETWEEN 8 PM
AND MIDNIGHT.

HJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
817 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

ILZ027>029-290215-
KNOX-PEORIA-STARK-
817 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL KNOX...NORTHWESTERN
PEORIA AND STARK COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM CDT...

AT 811 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR KNOXVILLE...OR 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
GALESBURG...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  VICTORIA...
  WILLIAMSFIELD...
  ELMORE...
  LAURA...
  WEST JERSEY...
  BRIMFIELD...

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...DAHINDA...SNAKE DEN HOLLOW...
MONICA AND DUNCAN.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 4121 8965 4084 8965 4074 9036 4100 9043
TIME...MOT...LOC 0117Z 252DEG 27KT 4088 9023

SHIMON

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>