Alert archive / Illinois / Special Weather Statements in 2012
Special Weather Statement, NWS Lincoln, IL
NWS Lincoln, IL issued this special weather statement at May 20, 2012, 4:54 PM CDT for Sangamon County, Illinois. It was in force for 51 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 20, 2012, 4:54 PM CDT (21:54 UTC)
- Expired
- May 20, 2012, 5:45 PM CDT
- In force
- 51 min
- Issued by
- NWS Lincoln, IL
County Sangamon County, IL
The radar
The Lincoln radar (KILX), 40 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:53 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 12:00Z, 9.9 hours before the alert went out and 97 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 616 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -119 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1773 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 10 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -67 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -55 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
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</html>What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lincoln, IL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at May 20, 2:35 PM CDT, 2 hours 19 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, May 20, 2:35 PM CDT, 2 hours 19 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 235 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 235 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN/EXTREME WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH SOUTHWEST THROUGH IOWA AND MISSOURI INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT TONIGHT SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...VERY POSSIBLY THE ONLY RAINFALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK. ASIDE FROM PRECIPITATION CHANCES/TIMING TONIGHT...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN TODAY IN THIS RATHER QUIET WEATHER PERIOD REVOLVES AROUND TEMPERATURES. 12Z MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE PREDOMINANTLY BENIGN WEATHER PERIOD EXPECTED. HOWEVER... MODEL/ENSEMBLE SPREAD INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN POOR. THE DISAGREEMENT LOCALLY REVOLVES AROUND HOW STRONG THE EASTERN U.S. RIDGE WILL BE AND IF A STRONG ENOUGH IMPULSE FLATTENS TO THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO DROP A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW... PRIMARILY TO MINIMIZE FORECAST FLIP-FLOP...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE STRONGER RIDGE/DRIER SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...EVEN THE ECMWF IS LITTLE WEAKER WITH THE RIDGE FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY THAN IT HAS BEEN. SO...THE LATE WEEK FORECAST IS CERTAINLY SUBJECT TO CHANGE. SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. MUCH AS ANTICIPATED THE PAST FEW DAYS...PRE FRONTAL SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 25 KTS. THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT IS ALSO RATHER WEAK. FOR THESE REASONS...STILL DO NOT EXPECT ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...A FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS SHOULD FADE BY EARLY EVENING AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY WANES. MUCH COOLER...BUT CLOSER TO NORMAL...TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT FOR TOMORROW. THIS COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVE HOWEVER AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING...BUT STILL QUIET WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS SUPPORT MOSTLY QUIET AND INCREASINGLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE OF THE FORECAST. AS MENTIONED IN THE MODEL DISCUSSION ABOVE...STILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW FAR SOUTH A MOSTLY EAST/WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL SINK AS DISTURBANCES TOP THE RIDGE. IF MODELS TREND ANY FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE FRONT...WE WILL NEED TO INTRODUCE POPS TO AT LEAST NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND CUT TEMPERATURES A BIT. BAK && .AVIATION... ISSUED 1245 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012 GREAT AMOUNT OF MODEL VARIANCE IN THE FACE OF BLOSSOMING CU FIELD OVER ILX TERMINALS. SWRLY WINDS BECOMING BLUSTERY...WITH GUSTS 25-30KTS. SOME MINOR RETURNS POPPING UP ON RADAR...BUT WIDESPREAD EFFECTIVE CONVECTION HOLDING A BIT. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY OUT THERE...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT EXTENT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION...BUT WANT MORE THAN VCTS IN THE TAFS. HAVE PLACED TEMPOS FOR BEST CHANCES OF TS IN PIA AND BMI...AND RA FOR SPI AND CMI. WILL LIKELY BE A LAST MINUTE CALL WITH SCT TS THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...NWRLY WINDS AND THEN A QUESTION OF HOW QUICKLY THE MVFR CIGS CONTINUE. ONCE AGAIN...LIMITED MOISTURE IS A CONCERN...WITH MAJORITY OF MVFR CIGS MOVING WELL NORTH...CLOSER TO THE LOW. HJS && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. &&
Hazardous weather outlook, May 20, 3:09 PM CDT, 1 hour 45 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 309 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012 ILZ027>031-036>038-040>042-047-048-211100- CASS-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-MENARD-PEORIA- SCHUYLER-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD- 309 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING MAY BECOME SEVERE...CONTAINING GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEFORE THE STORMS WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY TIME FRAME FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE SPOTTER ACTIVATION TODAY WOULD BE FROM 300 PM UNTIL 700 PM THIS EVENING. ILZ043>046-049>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-211100- CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DE WITT- DOUGLAS-EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-MACON-MORGAN-MOULTRIE- PIATT-RICHLAND-SANGAMON-SCOTT-SHELBY-VERMILION- 309 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL BEFORE THE STORMS WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. HJS
In the hours before
Local storm report, May 20, 4:31 PM CDT, 23 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
431 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0428 PM HAIL TRIVOLI 40.69N 89.88W
05/20/2012 M0.50 INCH PEORIA IL LAW ENFORCEMENT
&&
TIMTESpecial weather statement, May 20, 4:54 PM CDT, 0 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 454 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012 ILZ048-051-202245- MENARD-SANGAMON- 454 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN SANGAMON AND SOUTHEASTERN MENARD COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT... AT 449 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PLEASANT PLAINS...OR 10 MILES WEST OF SPRINGFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... ATHENS... SHERMAN... RIVERTON... WILLIAMSVILLE... OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...FARMINGDALE...SALISBURY...CAPITAL AIRPORT...CANTRALL AND FANCY PRAIRIE. PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN. LAT...LON 4006 8967 3986 8943 3975 8984 3987 8991 TIME...MOT...LOC 2154Z 235DEG 32KT 3986 8978 BARNES
The office that day
Everything else NWS Lincoln, IL issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 20, 4:00 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | ILX | Effingham | 6 hr |
| May 20, 5:04 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | ILX | Logan | 41 min |
| May 20, 5:36 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | ILX | Logan | 54 min |
| May 20, 5:38 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ILX | Logan, Sangamon | 37 min |
| May 20, 5:46 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ILX | Morgan, Sangamon | 44 min |
| May 20, 6:11 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ILX | Logan, Mason, Tazewell | 49 min |
| May 20, 6:56 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | ILX | Champaign | 64 min |
Nearby
Special Weather Statements in Illinois, 2012Every special weather statement in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.