Special Weather Statement, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
628 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 258 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2012
CONCERNS TODAY AREA POSSIBLE STORMS TONIGHT MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AFTER THEY FIRE OVER IA ON A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND BE THE
TRIGGER FOR POSSIBLE STORMS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
FRONT...A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY TO
MONDAY...TRIGGERING MORE RAIN.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
MORNING UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOMEWHAT OF
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER US WITH SERIES OF WAVES IN UPPER FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN US. FIRST WAVE EASTERN MS TO NORTERH MO
TRIGGERING CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN WI. ADDITIONAL WAVES IN THE
NORTHWEST US. SURFACE DATA SHOWS FRONTAL ZONE FROM KS INTO IA TO
WI WITH VERY UNSTABLE AIRMAS AHEAD OF FRONT...WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S OVER MO-IL. MU CAPES OVER IL IN THE 3000-4000
RANGE...HOWEVER OUTFLOW OVER CENTRAL IL FROM THE PREVIOUS MORNING
IA STORMS HAS NOT PRODUCED ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVEREGENCE...IT
EFFECTIVELY WASHING OUT. THEREFORE EXPECT EVENING CONVECTION ON
THAT BOUNDARY WILL BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...IN EASTERN IA AND FURTHER
NORTH ON SYNOPTIC FRONT...STRONGER CONVERGENCE SHOULD TRIGGER
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...WILL CONVECTION THEN TRACKING INTO
NORTHERN SECTION OF CENTRAL IL OVERNIGHT...THUS POPS FOR TONIGHT
REFLECT THIS TREND.

FOR FRIDAY...FRONT PROGGED TO SAG SOUTH INTO IL AND SO WITH THAT
FEATURE IN AREA AND AFTERNOON HEATING...SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE FRI
WITH SOME SEVERE POSSIBLE. FRONTAL ZONE LINGERS IN AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AND SO CHANCE POPS IN STORMS AGAIN
CONTINUES. ALL THE MODELS PRETTY SIMILAR IN FRONTAL MOVEMENT. FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT THE NEXT MAIN COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVEINTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS ON THE FRONTAL POSITION ON
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE NAM THE FASTER. LIKE A BLEND WITH
CHANCE OF STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY...BUT THE
BEST CHANCE ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
POPS GRADUALLY MOVE OUT TO THE EAST ON MONDAY NIGHT AFTER THE
FRONT.

THE AREA THEN GETS INTO INTO MORE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH
COOLER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY TO THURSDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE
DRY...WITH SOME CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY WITH COLD ADVECTION DAYTIME
SHOWERS POSSIBLE DUE TO A MINOR UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 615 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2012

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT AND
THE AFFECT IT MAY HAVE ON CIGS AND VSBYS...ESP ACRS THE NORTH.
CONVECTION DEVELOPING EARLY THIS EVENING FROM NE IL SW THRU NE
MO AND TRACKING ENE. LOOKS AS IF THIS CONVECTION WILL AFFECT
MAINLY OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES INITIALLY WITH MODEL DATA SUGGESTING
A TRANSITION MORE TWDS THE ESE LATE TONIGHT AS THE CONVECTION
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET. WILL KEEP THE CIGS AT
LOW END VFR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN
THE STRONGER CONVECTION...ESP ACRS THE NORTH AFTR 05Z. COVERAGE OF
THE CONVECTION VERY MUCH IN DOUBT FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AS A RESULT WILL KEEP THE VCTS GOING FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SFC WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TONIGHT WITH A FEW GUSTS
TO 25 KTS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE
IN DIRECTION AND SPEED IN AND NEAR ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

SMITH
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
317 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2012

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061-041100-
CASS-CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-COLES-DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-FULTON-KNOX-
LOGAN-MACON-MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-PEORIA-
PIATT-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-SHELBY-STARK-TAZEWELL-VERMILION-
WOODFORD-
317 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM MID-EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD
TOWARD CENTRAL ILLINOIS. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG...PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS
OVER THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A DAILY CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-041100-
CLARK-CLAY-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-RICHLAND-
317 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS
OVER THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A DAILY CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

BARNES

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