Special Weather Statement, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1214 AM CDT MON APR 16 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 900 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

HAVE CANCELLED THE TORNADO WATCH AND WIND ADVISORY FOR REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. STORMS ARE VERY ISOLATED AND BORDER LINE SEVERE.
STORMS HAVE ALSO MOVED OUT OF THE WATCH AREA AND HAVE DECIDED NOT
TO EXPAND THE WATCH EASTWARD INTO MORE OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

UPDATE WILL BE FORTH COMING.

AUTEN
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1214 AM CDT MON APR 16 2012

PCPN WILL GRADUALLY BE ENDING ACROSS ALL SITES WITH PIA...SPI
STARTING WITH NO PCPN AND CIGS ABOVE 10KFT. DEC/BMI/CMI WILL ALSO
SEE END OF PCPN AND CIGS RISING TO AROUND 10KFT. AFTER A BRIEF
PERIOD OF BKN MID CLOUDS...LOWER CLOUDS RETURN IN THE WRAP AROUND
TOMORROW. PIA/BMI WILL SEE CLOUDS AT MVFR LEVELS WILE THE OTHER
SITES WILL BE VFR. CIGS WILL CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON...AS EARLY AS
20Z AT SPI AND DEC...THEN 21Z AT PIA/BMI/CMI. WINDS WILL REMAIN
VERY GUSTY OVERNIGHT...PREVENTING ANY FOG FORMATION IN THE
MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE MORNING. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT AND BECOME WESTERLY TOMORROW.

AUTEN
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 221 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDED NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH
THROUGH THE PLAINS. MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY REVOLVES AROUND
THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. ADDITIONAL CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND PERIODIC
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS..GENERALLY MUCH
WEAKER THAN THE ONE CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST.

12Z MODELS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT
AGREEMENT AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK HAS DEGRADED THE PAST FEW RUNS. HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND OF
SOLUTIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT
AS GOOD AS IT WAS.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE PLAINS UPPER LEVEL
WAVE/SURFACE LOW WILL SHEAR OUT/FILL RESPECTIVELY AS THEY LIFT
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE PASSAGE OF
THIS SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH WILL DRAG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE
DIMINISHED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE PRE FRONTAL WARM SECTOR OF
THE SYSTEM HAS STAYED PRETTY CLOUDY TODAY AND KEPT TEMPERATURES
BELOW FORECAST HIGHS. IN ADDITION...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS
PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL WARMING/CAPPING PER 18Z KILX/KDVN
SPECIAL UPPER AIR LAUNCHES. THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
DOES NOT SUPPORT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MID LEVEL COOLING UNTIL MUCH
LATER TONIGHT. SO...IT IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND/OR MID LEVEL CAPPING MAY PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DESPITE IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
HOWEVER...DO NOT WANT TO WRITE OFF SEVERE STORMS COMPLETELY AT
THIS POINT GIVEN SHEAR/WIND PROFILES. THE MORE SHALLOW MIXING DUE
TO THE WEAK SURFACE WARMING/STRONG MID LEVEL WARMING HAS KEPT
WINDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE MOST PART AS WELL. WILL KEEP
AN EYE ON WIND TRENDS THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT MAY CANCEL AT
LEAST A PORTION OF THE WIND ADVISORY EARLY.

COOLER...BUT SEASONABLE...AND MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER ANTICIPATED
LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS
QUIETER WEATHER IS SUPPORTED BY MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A COUPLE WEAK IMPULSES IN
THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN SUPPORT AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWER/STORMS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WHILE MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING AND THE BEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO OUR NORTH...THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ENOUGH WITH THESE FEATURES TO INCLUDE
MENTIONABLE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A COUPLE STRONGER WAVES WILL HELP AMPLIFY THE FLOW ONCE AGAIN AND DIG
AN EASTERN U.S. TROF FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
A MORE WIDESPREAD/FOCUSED RISK OF PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE
MODEL SPREAD IN HOW THIS PATTERN SHIFT EVOLVES HAS INCREASED AND
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS.

NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK WILL TREND
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE EASTERN U.S. TROFFING DEEPENS.

BAK

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
314 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>043-047>053-161100-
CASS-CHRISTIAN-DE WITT-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MACON-MARSHALL-MASON-
MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-PEORIA-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-STARK-
TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
314 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY MIDNIGHT. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS OVER
PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30
MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WILL BE COMMON OVER THE
AREA INTO MID EVENING.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS
EVENING BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS
OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND STRONG
DEEP LAYERED SHEAR WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRESENT INDICATIONS
SUGGEST THE PRIMARY TIME FRAME FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM
5 PM UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL...WITH ISOLATED
TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED FROM 5 PM THROUGH 9 PM THIS
EVENING.

ILZ044>046-054>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-161100-
CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-
EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-MOULTRIE-PIATT-RICHLAND-SHELBY-
VERMILION-
314 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY MIDNIGHT. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WILL BE COMMON INTO THIS EVENING.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
BRINGING WITH IT A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING MID EVENING INTO EARLY
OVERNIGHT. PRESENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE PRIMARY TIME FRAME FOR
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 8 PM UNTIL 1 AM. THE MAIN THREAT
FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED FROM 8 PM UNTIL 1 AM TONIGHT.

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
809 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1127 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG CLINTON                 40.15N 88.96W
04/15/2012                   DE WITT            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DELAYED REPORT...8-9 INCH DIAMETER TREE BRANCH SPLIT AWAY
            FROM MAIN TREE TRUCK DUE TO NON-THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.

&&

LAUFENBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
811 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1127 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG CLINTON                 40.15N 88.96W
04/15/2012                   DE WITT            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DELAYED REPORT...8-9 INCH DIAMETER TREE BRANCH SPLIT AWAY
            FROM MAIN TREE TRUNK DUE TO NON-THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.

&&

LAUFENBERG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
834 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

ILZ029-036-037-041-160200-
FULTON-MASON-PEORIA-TAZEWELL-
834 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN FULTON...SOUTHERN
PEORIA...WESTERN MASON AND WESTERN TAZEWELL COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM
CDT...

AT 831 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HAVANA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MANITO...
  GLASFORD...
  SOUTH PEKIN...
  PEKIN...
  MARQUETTE HEIGHTS...
  BARTONVILLE...

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...CHATAUQUA PARK...POPLAR CITY...
LIVERPOOL...TOPEKA...GOOFY RIDGE AND FOREST CITY.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 4072 8962 4055 8942 4015 9007 4029 9022
TIME...MOT...LOC 0134Z 229DEG 52KT 4028 9006

BAK

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