Alert archive / Illinois / Areal Flood Advisories in 2012

Areal Flood Advisory 4, NWS Lincoln, IL

September 7, 2012Clay County, Effingham County, Illinois

NWS Lincoln, IL issued this areal flood advisory at Sep 7, 2012, 8:13 PM CDT for Clay County, Effingham County, Illinois. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Sep 7, 2012, 8:13 PM CDT (01:13 UTC)
Expired
Sep 7, 2012, 11:00 PM CDT
In force
3 hr
Issued by
NWS Lincoln, IL
Area
Storm-based polygon

Counties Clay County, IL, Effingham County, IL

The radar

The Evansville,IN radar (KVWX), 101 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 00:00Z, 1.2 hours before the alert went out and 138 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Lincoln, IL at 00:00Z on 2012-09-08Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Lincoln, IL at 00:00Z on 2012-09-08The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -113 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
723 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
54 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-113 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
99 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this areal flood advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Lincoln, IL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this areal flood advisory went out at Sep 7, 6:47 PM CDT, 1 hour 26 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 7, 6:47 PM CDT, 1 hour 26 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
647 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 257 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE INVOLVES SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THIS FRONT.
LONG TERM MODELS LOOK SIMILAR TOO UNTIL ABOUT THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH AMOUNT OF PCPN POSSIBLE WITH A LATE WEEK
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. SO BLEND OF MODELS LOOKS GOOD IN THE
SHORT TERM WITH ALL BLEND IN THE LONG TERM.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH EXPECTED WEATHER FOR REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...DUE TO MORNING AND ONGOING
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE
TIMING OF THIS CONVECTION TENDS TO WORK/OVERTURN THE ATMOSPHERE
ENOUGH TO LIMIT OR PROHIBIT SEVERE WEATHER WHEN THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES. CONVECTION REMAINS LIKELY WITH THE FRONT GIVEN THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE IN THE AREA AND SHEAR AVAILABLE. SO POPS WILL REMAIN
HIGH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. FRONT HAS PUSHED
THROUGH GBG AND MQB AND IS MAKING ITS WAY EAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS
THIS FRONT MOVES EAST...POPS WILL DIMINISH BACK TO THE WEST THIS
EVENING AS WELL AS THREAT FOR THUNDER. SO WILL HAVE SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF I-55 WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY TO OCCASIONAL EAST AND SOUTHEAST. AFTER THIS ACTIVITY/COLD
FRONT DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A LARGE HIGH PRSS AREA BUILDS
INTO THE REGION AND BECOMES DOMINATE FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH TEMPS REMAINING
IN THE 70S. THIS FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH MOS GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRSS
DOMINATES THE AREA ON THE SFC AND A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION. A LONG WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN US LATE IN THE WEEK...BRING A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA. THOUGH MODELS LOOK SIMILAR ON THE SFC...THEY
DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON AMOUNT OF QPF AND TIMING. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCES IN FOR THUR THROUGH FRIDAY UNTIL MODELS GET BETTER
HANDLE ON IT. SLIGHT CHANCES WILL SHOW UP IN GRIDS BUT NOT WORDED
FORECAST.

WITH RIDGE BUILDING ON SFC AND MID LEVELS TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
MODERATE BACK UP INTO THE 80S FOR WED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 635 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012
COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND WINDS HAVE
COME AROUND TO THE N/NW IN MOST LOCATIONS. TS NOW WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST THOUGH SHRA STILL POSSIBLE IN NEXT FEW HOURS AT ALL
TERMINALS. CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE BRIEF DEVELOPMENT FOR
AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE AMOUNT
OF LLVL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. DWPTS STILL IN THE MID 60S...AND
UPPER 50S MOVING IN WELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...IF ANY SIG
CLEARING GETS A CHANCE...VIS WILL BE ABLE TO DROP. FOR
NOW...COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS STILL A QUESTION...AND HAVE JUST
BEEN GENERAL WITH THE MVFR FOR THE OVERNIGHT. LATER IN THE MORNING
SHOULD BE CLEAR VFR AND WINDS OUT OF THE NW.

HJS
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 7, 2:57 PM CDT, 5 hours 16 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
257 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>043-047-048-081100-
CASS-DE WITT-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-MENARD-
PEORIA-SCHUYLER-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
257 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ044>046-049>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-081100-
CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DOUGLAS-
EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-MACON-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-PIATT-
RICHLAND-SANGAMON-SCOTT-SHELBY-VERMILION-
257 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...MAINLY
BETWEEN 4 PM AND 9 PM.

HJS

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Sep 7, 5:16 PM CDT, 2 hours 57 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
516 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

ILZ044-054>057-072315-
COLES-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-MOULTRIE-PIATT-
516 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DOUGLAS...EDGAR...NORTHERN
COLES...NORTHERN MOULTRIE AND SOUTHEASTERN PIATT COUNTIES UNTIL 615
PM CDT...

AT 511 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ATWOOD TO ARTHUR TO
LOVINGTON...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  TUSCOLA...
  VILLA GROVE...
  ARCOLA...
  CAMARGO...
  HUMBOLDT...
  HINDSBORO...

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...GARRETT...CADWELL...BOURBON...
CHESTERVILLE...MURDOCK AND FAIRGRANGE.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 3962 8755 3953 8779 3964 8879 3974 8861
      3993 8853 3992 8846 3988 8846 3988 8814
      3981 8753 3968 8753
TIME...MOT...LOC 2216Z 278DEG 36KT 3983 8844 3972 8849
          3968 8861

BARKER
Special weather statement, Sep 7, 5:22 PM CDT, 2 hours 51 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
522 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

ILZ052>054-061-072315-
CHRISTIAN-MACON-MOULTRIE-SHELBY-
522 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SHELBY...SOUTHEASTERN
CHRISTIAN...SOUTHERN MOULTRIE AND SOUTHWESTERN MACON COUNTIES UNTIL
615 PM CDT...

AT 516 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ASSUMPTION TO 6
MILES NORTHWEST OF PANA...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.  IN ADDITION...FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING SHOULD BE
EXPECTED WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  TOWER HILL...
  WESTERVELT...
  LAKEWOOD...
  SHELBYVILLE...
  FINDLAY...
  SULLIVAN...

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...ROSAMOND...EAGLE CREEK STATE
PARK...KIRKSVILLE...WOLF CREEK STATE PARK...CLARKSBURG AND STRASBURG.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 3937 8931 3949 8917 3966 8916 3964 8879
      3961 8847 3927 8847
TIME...MOT...LOC 2221Z 279DEG 38KT 3956 8904 3948 8904
          3942 8911

BARKER
Local storm report, Sep 7, 6:20 PM CDT, 1 hour 53 minutes before
<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>
Local storm report, Sep 7, 6:29 PM CDT, 1 hour 44 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
629 PM CDT FRI SEP 07 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CHARLESTON              39.48N 88.18W
09/07/2012                   COLES              IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN BLOCKING 14TH STREET AND ANOTHER ONE DOWN ON
            HARRISON ST. REPORTED BY CHARLESTON POLICE AND RELAYED
            VIA WCIA-TV

&&

GEELHART
Local storm report, Sep 7, 6:37 PM CDT, 1 hour 36 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
637 PM CDT FRI SEP 07 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0631 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ALTAMONT                39.06N 88.75W
09/07/2012                   EFFINGHAM          IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            3 INCH DIAMETER LIMBS DOWN.

&&

GEELHART
Local storm report, Sep 7, 6:40 PM CDT, 1 hour 33 minutes before
<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

The office that day

Everything else NWS Lincoln, IL issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 7, 7:13 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILXClark, Crawford, Lawrence62 min
Sep 7, 7:29 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILXClay, Jasper, Richland46 min
Sep 8, 5:45 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningILXClay, Richland58 hr

Nearby

Areal Flood Advisories in Illinois, 2012Every areal flood advisory in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.