Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
916 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DECREASING
AFTER THIS TIME AS WELL. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES FOR THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A STRONG S/W WILL SWING AROUND THE BASE OF A DEEP H5 LOW ON
SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP KICK OFF INSTABILITY SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA.
AS THE ENERGY WORKS E...THE PCPN SHOULD END QUICKLY SATURDAY
NIGHT.

A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH...BEGINS TO BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT. 0C AIR
AT H8 REACHES EXTREME NW OHIO BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WITH SOME NW
FLOW AT THE SFC...LOWS SHOULD STAY MAINLY IN THE 40S. THE HIGH
CONTINUES TO SETTLE IN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE COLD AIR
ALOFT...CU SHOULD POP ON SUNDAY...WITH BETTER COVERAGE ACROSS THE N.

MODELS TRY AND BRING THE CENTER OF THE HIGH DOWN ACROSS THE FA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. 0C AIR AT H8 SETTLES ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
LOWS TO DROP INTO MID TO UPPER 40S. ADDED A MENTION FROST FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL ADD A MENTION IN THE HWO OF FROST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COOLEST MORNING OF THE FORECAST WILL START OFF THE PERIOD UNDER
CLEAR SKIES IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
KENTUCKY. HIGHS SHOULD BE A HANDFUL OF DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY AS
RETURN FLOW SETS UP AND SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR. THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP IF FULL SUN IS EXPECTED.

THE RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL NECESSITATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TOWARDS DAYBREAK TUESDAY DUE TO MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT IS SLATED TO CROSS THE REGION FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
BE FOUND THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL LIKELY PUSH THE MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN CHANCES OUT QUICKER...BUT DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS HAD ME
LINGER POPS A LITTLE LONGER. CLOUD COVER AND THE NORTHERLY FLOW
SUGGESTS A COOLER EXTENDED PERIOD AS WELL...DROPPED READINGS A
LITTLE AND FEEL THE TREND WILL BE TO DROP THEM FURTHER AS TIME GOES
ON.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TONIGHT
SHOWERS WILL IMPACT ALL THE TAF SITES. MVFR TO IFR VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAIN. ADDED TSRA INTO ONLY KDAY
AT THIS TIME HOWEVER THIS MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED IN AT ADDITIONAL
TAF SITES IF THE AREA OF STORMS MAINTAINS ITS CURRENT STRENGTH.
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA AND THEREFORE SOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE DAY.
WINDS WILL PICK UP AND BECOME GUSTY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY WITH CU PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BY THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...NOVAK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
849 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012

INZ075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-081-082-088-230100-
OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-ADAMS-
PIKE-SCIOTO-
849 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL
OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER
A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...FROST
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

INZ050-058-059-066-073-074-OHZ042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-
077>080-230100-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-DARKE-SHELBY-
LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-
LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-
BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-
849 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF
OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
THE MAIN TREATS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER
A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...FROST
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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