Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
118 AM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...WHICH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A
MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #633 HAS REPLACED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH #631 AND IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EDT FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NRN
CWFA.

A VIGOROUS S/WV WILL DIG SE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC LOW TO DEEPEN
AND MOVE NE ACRS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES...A COLD FRONT
WILL SWING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS S/WV IS DYNAMIC AND LOW LEVEL FORCING AND UPR LVL
FORCING WILL BE ADEQUATE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT. MLCAPE OF 1000 TO 1500  J/KG SHOULD LINGER INTO THE
EARLY HOURS OF SATURDAY MORNING WHICH IS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL. MAIN SVR WX THREAT...IF IT IS
REALIZED...WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH A RAGGED QLCS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. ISOLATED HAIL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL. HAVE
KEPT SVR WEATHER WORDING IN ALL THE ZONES FOR EXCEPT THE FAR NORTH
THROUGH 3 AM EDT ATTM. HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS
WITH SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES POSSIBLE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 IN THE NW TO THE UPPER 60S
SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...WHICH SHOULD THEN COME TO AN END BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA. CLOUDY SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE AFTN
HOURS. WITH GOOD CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WEAK SFC RIDGING WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY MORNING AS ANOTHER S/WV IN THE NW FLOW
PUSHES SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. DEEPEST MOISTURE AND WEAK
FORCING...ALONG WITH BEST INSTABILITY IS FORECAST FOR OUR NRN AND
PARTS OF OUR EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY AFTN AS AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD
FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE PLACED 20 AND 30
POPS FOR SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS. AFTER A COOL START...HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

UNDER A NW FLOW ALOFT...S/WV WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S BY MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER/MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG TROUGH
WHICH WILL BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL /HIGHS IN THE 70S/ ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...AND THEN TRANSITION TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE
AND END OF THE WORK WEEK. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL AGGRESSIVELY INDUCE
HEIGHT RISES TUE AND WED WHICH WILL PUSH 850MB TEMPS INTO THE MID TO
UPPER TEENS WED - FRI.  EXPECT VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER
MON/TUE/WED AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN
DEPARTS TO THE SOUTH. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WITH A VERY POTENT CNTL
CANADA SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL GLANCE ATOP THE RIDGE
THURS/FRI...LOWERING HEIGHTS SOMEWHAT AND ALLOWING A WEAK/DECAYING
FRONT INTO THE GREAT LAKES AT THE END OF THE WEEK. NOT REALLY
THRILLED ABOUT THE RAIN CHANCES IN THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT ENOUGH OF
AN NCEP /GFS AND GEFS/ SIGNAL FOR LOW-END RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY.
MORNING LOWS WILL BE ENJOYABLE/COOL IN THIS DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LINE OF CONVECTION WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTS TO 30KT
WILL QUICKLY RESOLVE TO PREVAILING MVFR SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS
AND MORE CONSISTENT NW WINDS AOA 12KT. SHOWERS WILL BE DONE BY
DAYBREAK FOR ALL BUT POSSIBLY KCMH/KLCK. NW FLOW WILL BE DRIER AND
THERE SHOULD BE CU AROUND 4-5KFT TODAY THAT CLEARS NICELY AFTER
SUNSET. ATTM...CU LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON ARE NOT SHOWING
TO BE A CIG. WILL LOOK A LITTLE HARDER AT THE STRENGTH OF THE
COLD POOL AND SEE IF THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WHAT IS EXPECTED.
IT MAY END UP BEING A MORE CLOUDY THAN NOT SCENARIO BUT SHOULD
STILL BE VFR REGARDLESS.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...FRANKS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
139 AM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

KYZ096>100-OHZ045-046-054>056-063>065-072>074-078>082-088-090545-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-CLINTON-ROSS-
HOCKING-CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
139 AM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCAL FLOODING ISSUES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>095-OHZ026-034-035-042>044-
051>053-060>062-070-071-077-090545-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-HARDIN-
MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-PREBLE-
MONTGOMERY-GREENE-BUTLER-WARREN-HAMILTON-
139 AM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...MIAMI VALLEY OF
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1237 AM EDT SAT SEP 08 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1221 AM     TSTM WND DMG     FAIRBORN                39.80N 84.02W
09/08/2012                   GREENE             OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE BRANCHES DOWNED

&&

MYRONP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1240 AM EDT SAT SEP 08 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1221 AM     TSTM WND GST     KCVG CINC N KY APT      39.05N 84.67W
09/08/2012  M59 MPH          BOONE              KY   ASOS

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1247 AM EDT SAT SEP 08 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1247 AM     TSTM WND GST     CRITTENDEN              38.78N 84.61W
09/08/2012  E60 MPH          GRANT              KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MYRONP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
149 AM EDT SAT SEP 08 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1246 AM     TSTM WND DMG     GOSHEN                  39.23N 84.16W
09/08/2012                   CLERMONT           OH   PUBLIC

            LARGE BRANCHES BROKEN. TIME AND LOCATION ESTIMATED.

&&

JOHNF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
150 AM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

OHZ045-046-054>056-063>065-073-074-080>082-080645-
ADAMS OH-DELAWARE OH-FAIRFIELD OH-FAYETTE OH-FRANKLIN OH-HOCKING OH-
LICKING OH-MADISON OH-PICKAWAY OH-PIKE OH-ROSS OH-UNION OH-
HIGHLAND OH-
150 AM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN HIGHLAND...
EASTERN UNION...ROSS...NORTHERN PIKE...PICKAWAY...EASTERN MADISON...
WESTERN LICKING...WESTERN HOCKING...FRANKLIN...EASTERN FAYETTE...
FAIRFIELD...DELAWARE AND NORTHERN ADAMS COUNTIES THROUGH 245 AM
EDT...

AT 147 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM RADNOR TO DERBY TO 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SINKING
SPRING...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

IN ADDITION...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...NEW HOLLAND...
CYNTHIANA...HILLIARD...DUBLIN...DELAWARE...POWELL...UPPER
ARLINGTON...GROVE CITY...KINCAID SPRINGS...WILLIAMSPORT...BAINBRIDGE
AND WORTHINGTON.

ALSO...BELLEPOINT...SINKING SPRING...DEER CREEK LAKE...SOUTH SALEM...
HARRISBURG...SHAWNEE HILLS...COLUMBUS ZOO AND NEW ROME ARE NEAR THE
PATH OF THIS LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS. MOVE INDOORS WHEN THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH. WATER WILL POND
ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

LAT...LON 3936 8264 3936 8274 3908 8279 3901 8346
      3976 8324 4051 8329 4051 8325 4045 8324
      4044 8302 4042 8293 4036 8292 4035 8275
      4028 8274 4027 8248 3981 8247

ASL

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