Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
334 PM EDT WED SEP 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVING THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WEAKENING COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY AFFECT OUR
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL
SHEAR OF 35 KTS IS PRESENT TO COMBINE WITH MODEST CAPE OF AROUND
1500 J/KG TO ALLOW FOR A CHANCE FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.

THE FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY OVERNIGHT WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW PASSING JUST TO OUR NORTH. MAJORITY
OF THE MODELS DEVELOP A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THIS EVENING ACROSS
WI/MI AND PROPAGATE IT QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR FORECAST
AREA. HAVE RAMPED UP POPS OVERNIGHT TO LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
AND CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TO CAPTURE THIS FEATURE. THE MAIN
CAVEAT TO THIS POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS THE LOSS OF
INSTABILITY DUE TO CURRENT CONVECTION. THIS COULD CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF ANY CONVECTION AS IT WOULD MOVE CLOSER TO
OUR AREA. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE THE ACTUAL EVOLUTION OF THE
COMPLEX FOR FUTURE UPDATES AS IT HAS YET TO MATERIALIZE. IF THIS
SCENARIO INDEED PLAYS OUT...THEN A COLD POOL/REAR INFLOW JET COULD
RESULT IN A DAMAGING WIND THREAT LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY REMNANT PRECIPITATION FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL COME TO
AN END QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING
BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
80S NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS
THE SOUTH...CLOSER TO THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL OUT
JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER LATE THURSDAY. A CONTINUED STRONGER
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL GO INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT NEARBY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO THE MIDDLE 60S
ACROSS THE SOUTH.

THE RIDGE WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY.
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION IN
REGARD TO THE DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL AFFECT THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...HAVE SPED UP THE POPS SOMEWHAT
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN TO BE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH PCPN CHANCES THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY. THERE ARE SOME MINOR
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND THIS COULD HAVE AN AFFECT ON
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY. THE 12Z NAM IS
SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF. GIVEN THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE FASTER SOLUTIONS...BUT
THEY MAY STILL BE SLOW ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT MORE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK SECONDARY SHORT WAVE WILL PIVOT DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH A LITTLE BIT OF DIURNAL HELP...WE
COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS POP UP SUNDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. MONDAY
NIGHT MAY END UP BEING OUR COOLEST NIGHT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CLOSE
TO BEING OVERHEAD. WE SHOULD THEN SEE A GRADUAL WARM UP TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS WE GET INTO SOME RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRACKING THRU THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTION
PUSHING E ACRS INDIANA IN MODERATELY UNSTBL AIRMASS EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO WESTERN OHIO DURG AFTN AND WEAKEN SOME. HAVE TEMPO GROUP
FOR THUNDER AT WESTERN TAF SITES BUT LIMITED MENTION TO VCSH AT
KCMH/KLCK. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THIS CONVECTION
EARLY THIS EVENING. 12A NAM/WRF MODEL SOLNS INDICATING THAT
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR TO OUR NW AND THEN
DROP SE INTO ILNS FA OVERNIGHT. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY HAVE LIMITED
MENTION OF CONVECTION TO VCSH ACRS THE WEST. WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...
LIGHT SWRLY WIND FLOW AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MSTR...HAVE INCLUDED
THE MENTION OF FOG REDEVELOP TONIGHT. HAVE MVFR VSBY RESTRICTION
AT KCVG/KILN AND KLCK AND IFR AT KLUK. LIGHT SW FLOW OFF WARMER
CITIES MAY LIMIT FOG AT KDAY AND KCMH. SO HAVE NOT MENTIONED FOG
AT THESE SITES AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. HAVE
LIMITED MENTION TO VCSH LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...AR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
313 PM EDT WED SEP 5 2012

INZ066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ070>072-077>082-088-061915-
FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-
KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-
BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-
SCIOTO-
313 PM EDT WED SEP 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTHWEST
OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE
LIMITS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY ANY SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

INZ050-058-059-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-073-074-061915-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-
UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-
PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-ROSS-HOCKING-
313 PM EDT WED SEP 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT. A FEW OF THOSE STORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN
THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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