Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
808 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND
STRENGTHEN AS AN ENERGETIC UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR WILL BE PULLED IN ON THE
NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE SYSTEM SPINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FRIDAY AND EXIT ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN US WITH A
MEAN TROF OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NE US. STRONG S/W ENERGY OVER
THE UPR MS VLY TO DIG SE WITH UPR LOW DROPPING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES BY FRIDAY MORNING.

EMBEDDED MID LEVEL S/W AHD OF THIS DIGGING FEATURE ALONG WITH
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING (CLOUDS VS. SUNNY) LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCTD DEEP CONVECTION ALONG AND SE OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR. WITH MODERATE
INSTBY SOME OF THESE STORMS PRODUCED SEVERE WEATHER. THE LEADING
EDGE OF THESE STORMS AND BETTER FORCING HAS SHIFTED EAST OF ILN/S
FA AND THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED THESE EASTERN COUNTIES FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 567.

ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW DRIVEN STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACRS EASTERN
INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO. A COUPLE OF THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED
GOOD CORES WITH LARGE HAIL. ISOLD SHORT LIVED SEVERE STORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS WILL CONTINUE
THRU THE EVENING ACRS THE WEST. HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING IS ALSO A
THREAT.

SFC WAVE DEVELOPS OVER THE MID MS VLY IN RESPONSE TO THE DIGGING
UPR SYSTEM. THIS WAVE TO TRACK NE THRU OHIO TO A POSITION NEAR LE
BY FRI MORNING WITH TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO OHIO
LATE. BETTER DYNAMICS COME INTO PLAY WITH 30-40KT 0-6KM SHEAR AHD
OF THE SFC FRONT BUT INSTBY BECOMES MARGINAL. EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE
FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AFTER 03Z.

WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS EVENING
WITH THE ONGOING OUTFLOW DRIVEN CONVECTION AND THEN AGAIN OVERNIGHT
AND KEEP POPS IN LKLY TO CATEGORICAL WITH BEST POPS OVER THE
NORTH.

GUID TEMPS CLOSE TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM LOWER 60S NW TO THE UPPER
60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO MIGRATE SLOWLY THRU THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY.
SFC WAVE NEAR LAKE ERIE FRIDAY MORNING TO TRACK THRU THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WITH SOUTHWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST THRU
ILN/S FA FRIDAY MORNING. WL CONTINUE LKLY POPS EARLY WITH FROPA
AND THEN DROP OFF POPS TO SLIGHT CHC. WL CONTINUE CHC POPS INTO
AFTN WITH INFLUENCE OF UPR LOW AND SFC TROF DROPPING SE THRU ILN/S
FA. CAA AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN ON FRIDAY. HAVE HIGHS GENERALLY
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 70
NORTH WHERE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE MOST EXTENSIVE TO THE
UPPER 70S FAR SOUTH.

AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS OUT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. WILL DIMINISH CHC OF SHOWERS TO SLIGHT CHC ACRS FROM
THE SW FRIDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW FOR PARTIAL CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE.
EXPECT COOL TEMPERATURES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID AND UPR
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD /12Z SATURDAY/ OVER THE
THUMB OF LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH COOL 850MB TEMPS AROUND +11C
EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS SUPPORTS GOING
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MAINTAINED A
SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY MORNING OVER CNTRL OH NEAREST
STRONGEST CYCLONIC FLOW AND SUBTLE FORCING BEFORE LOW BEGINS TO
DRIFT NORTHEAST A BIT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A LITTLE WARMER ON
SUNDAY BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL AS 850MB TEMPS RISE A FEW DEGREES. A
LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY IN COMPARISON TO SATURDAY AS WELL
SHOULD AID IN THE TEMPERATURE RISE. WEAKER SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CRESTING THE LARGE WRN CONUS RIDGE WILL DIVE AND AMPLIFY A BIT
INTO THE ERN CONUS L/W TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
ENHANCED FLOW AND EMBEDDED ENERGY WILL INDUCE A WEAK MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION REGIME AND MAY PROMOTE A FEW AREAS OF SHOWERS
BEGINNING MONDAY AND CARRYING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE
SUGGESTIONS IN SOME DETERMINISTIC RUNS THAT RAIN CHANCE MAY CARRY
/OR EVEN MORE FOCUSED ON/ TUESDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH A
MORE STABLE SIGNAL OF MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING FOR RAIN CHANCES...AND
IT/S A RATHER LOW CHANCE GIVEN SUBTLE FORCING. INTO WED AND THURS
OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT NERN FRINGE OF WRN CONUS RIDGE TO BEGIN
BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA...WITH WARMING 850MB TEMPS TO 16C-
17C...SUPPORTING MORE NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS 85-90 IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FIRST LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUING TO MOVE THROUGH KCMH AND KLCK
TAF SITE AREA. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN WESTERN
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO BETTER LIFT AND DYNAMICS
WITH UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHING REGION. THESE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY EFFECT MAINLY KDAY AND KLUK OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
EAST OF THE TAF SITES. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT...EXPECT A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS TO HANG IN THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING
FRIDAY. WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP IN THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY AROUND 15Z FRIDAY
AT ALL TAF SITES.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...PARKER

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
820 PM EDT THU AUG 09 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     HAIL             3 SE CAMDEN             39.61N 84.61W
08/09/2012  E0.50 INCH       PREBLE             OH   BROADCAST MEDIA

            DIME SIZE HAIL

&&

SNYDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
825 PM EDT THU AUG 09 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             AMANDA                  39.65N 82.74W
08/09/2012  E0.50 INCH       FAIRFIELD          OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

HUGHES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
859 PM EDT THU AUG 09 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HARTFORD                40.24N 82.69W
08/09/2012                   LICKING            OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

BC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
931 PM EDT THU AUG 09 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     HAIL             4 SSE VISALIA           38.86N 84.42W
08/09/2012  E0.75 INCH       CAMPBELL           KY   PUBLIC

            RELAYED BY NSSL-SHAVE

&&

SNYDER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1054 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

OHZ034-100345-
MERCER OH-
1054 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MERCER COUNTY THROUGH 1145 PM
EDT...

AT 1049 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 19 MILES WEST
OF CHATTANOOGA...OR OVER EASTERN WELLS COUNTY INDIANA...MOVING EAST
AT 35 MPH. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS
STRONGER STORM.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...ROCKFORD...COLDWATER
AND CELINA.

ALSO...CHATTANOOGA...WABASH...TAMA...CARTHAGENA...MONTEZUMA...
MENDON...NEPTUNE AND CHICKASAW ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM.

WATER WILL POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT. IF THIS STORM BECOMES
STRONGER...THEN A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 4073 8446 4061 8445 4041 8446 4049 8481
      4073 8481 4073 8480

SNYDER

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