Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
434 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK THROUGH THE AREA
THIS EVENING KEEPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY IN THE FORECAST FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA TO START THE WORK WEEK AS MOISTURE WORKS NORTH INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK THROUGH THE FA
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE FA LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS
AROUND THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO
BE A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES HOWEVER
EXPECT MORE CLOUDS TO LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH KEPT TEMPERATURES UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WENT
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MOISTURE WILL WORK UP INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA FOR MONDAY
DURING THE DAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
NORTHERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN OHIO...AND SE INDIANA. THE REST OF
THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY ON MONDAY. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN SUNDAY. WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER
90S WITH THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE PRESENT.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING HOURS MONDAY NIGHT
AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY WORK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS CONTINUING TO INCREASE TUESDAY WITH A
WARM AND MUGGY TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS WARMER GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPERATURES BOTH PERIODS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROUNDING AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL COMBINED WITH PEAK HEATING COULD RESULT IN SOME
STORMS DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. CHANCE OF
STORMS WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY RESULTING IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL USHER
IN LESS HUMID AIR WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AND THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. BUT QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT IN TIME WHETHER THERE WILL MUCH OF A CHANCE
OF RAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS WE LOSE THE DAYTIME
HEATING...EXPECT THE PCPN TO TAPER OFF WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF MVFR BR AND POSSIBLY SOME LOWER STRATUS LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. ANY BR/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT UP INTO A
VFR CU FIELD THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JGL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
531 AM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-160945-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
531 AM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
348 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

OHZ044-052-152015-
CHAMPAIGN OH-LOGAN OH-
348 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EXTREME SOUTHERN LOGAN AND
CENTRAL CHAMPAIGN COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

AT 344 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
LIPPINCOTT...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...URBANA.

ALSO...LIPPINCOTT...CABLE...MINGO AND KENNARD ARE NEAR THE PATH OF
THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4026 8360 4009 8361 4013 8393 4025 8392

ASL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
412 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

OHZ046-152045-
DELAWARE OH-
412 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN DELAWARE COUNTY
THROUGH 445 PM EDT...

AT 411 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LEWIS
CENTER...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...SUNBURY.

ALSO...ALUM CREEK STATE PARK AND GALENA ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS
STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4029 8276 4013 8282 4015 8310 4029 8308

ASL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
416 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

OHZ061-071-152045-
MONTGOMERY OH-WARREN OH-
416 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN WARREN AND SOUTHEASTERN
MONTGOMERY COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT...

AT 413 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
SPRINGBORO...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...WAYNESVILLE AND
CAESAR CREEK STATE PARK.

ALSO...PEKIN...LYTLE...CORWIN...CAESAR CREEK STATE PARK...MOUNT HOLLY
AND HARVEYSBURG ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3962 8427 3960 8411 3958 8411 3957 8401
      3957 8398 3944 8401 3952 8433

ASL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
439 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

OHZ053-054-152115-
CLARK OH-MADISON OH-
439 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL MADISON AND SOUTHEASTERN
CLARK COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM EDT...

AT 434 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LISBON...
MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...LONDON.

ALSO...BRIGHTON AND MADISON LAKE ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3993 8335 3975 8340 3981 8375 3997 8367

ASL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
450 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

OHZ045-046-054-055-152115-
DELAWARE OH-FRANKLIN OH-MADISON OH-UNION OH-
450 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN UNION...
NORTHEASTERN MADISON...NORTHERN FRANKLIN AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE
COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM EDT...

AT 448 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM PLAIN
CITY EASTWARD TO POWELL...MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED
INCLUDE...DUBLIN...HILLIARD...UPPER
ARLINGTON...WORTHINGTON...WESTERVILLE...MINERVA
PARK...GAHANNA...COLUMBUS AND BEXLEY.

ALSO...SHAWNEE HILLS...COLUMBUS ZOO...RIVERLEA...MARBLE CLIFF...HUBER
RIDGE AND GRANDVIEW HEIGHTS ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4015 8278 3994 8291 4004 8341 4020 8339

ASL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
513 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

OHZ046-055-056-152200-
DELAWARE OH-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING OH-
513 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN LICKING...NORTHERN
FRANKLIN AND SOUTHEASTERN DELAWARE COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM EDT...

AT 509 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM DUBLIN
EASTWARD TO WESTERVILLE...MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...POWELL...UPPER
ARLINGTON...WORTHINGTON...COLUMBUS...MINERVA
PARK...BEXLEY...GAHANNA...SUMMIT STATION AND JOHNSTOWN.

ALSO...MARBLE CLIFF...RIVERLEA...GRANDVIEW HEIGHTS...HUBER RIDGE...
WHITEHALL...CENTER VILLAGE...NEW ALBANY AND JERSEY ARE NEAR THE PATH
OF THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4016 8252 3992 8286 4002 8325 4003 8326
      4005 8325 4005 8321 4010 8321 4011 8317
      4015 8317 4019 8314

ASL