Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
314 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH OF OUR AREA TONIGHT
AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA TOMORROW.
BEHIND THE FRONT...MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
THE FOCUS OF THE BULK OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
EVENING. DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1500 J/KG COMBINED WITH MU CAPES OF
OVER 3000 J/KG WILL ALLOW FOR COME OF THESE STORMS TO REACH
SEVERE LIMITS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. SINCE PWAT VALUES ARE NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
STEERING FLOW IS WEAK...CANNOT RULE OUT FLOODING ISSUE IF STORMS
BEGIN TO TRAIN. ACROSS THE NORTH...WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO TRY TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...THIS
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SLOWLY WEAKENING.

MOST ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AROUND SUNSET. GIVEN THE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AM MORE CONFIDENT IN KEEPING OVERNIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO LAST NIGHTS
POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA.

BLENDED THE NAM/WRF AND SREF FOR TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...WITH
MORE SEASONABLE VALUES BEING EXPERIENCED DUE TO COOLER AND DRIER
AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS SLOW PROGRESS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE DAY MONDAY. SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BEGIN TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES...BEFORE THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE BEST
INSTABILITY FINALLY PUSHES ALL CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL REACH THE MIDDLE 80S...AND LOW TO
MIDDLE 60S ACROSS MONDAY NIGHT UNDER CLEARING SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY AS IT ELONGATES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID
WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 80S THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
EVENTUALLY ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO WORK ITS WAY UP FROM THE SOUTH
LATE IN THE WEEK. THE MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING
THIS THOUGH ALONG WITH SOME WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ENERGY THAT
TRIES TO PUSH TOWARD OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AS A
RESULT...WILL JUST ALLOW FOR SOME LOW CHANCE POPS TO SLOWLY
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF SITES
AT THIS TIME...LEADING TO A WIND SHIFT TO THE NNE. THIS WILL OCCUR
AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES LATER IN THE MORNING. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY.

A VERY LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME. HOWEVER...SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CHANCES WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES...AND THEN ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS FOR THE
CINCINNATI TAF SITES. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL CLEAR FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO REMOVE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES BY THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...SOME PRECIPITATION AND ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR CINCINNATI THROUGH MONDAY. IN
FACT...RECENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING THIS BEING MORE LIKELY FOR A
FEW HOURS NEAR SUNRISE ON MONDAY MORNING.

ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS SEEM
LIKELY FOR THE MOST (IF NOT ALL) OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE
CINCINNATI TAF SITES.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ046-055-056-
     064-065-073-074-078>082-088.
     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ077.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...CONIGLIO

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
429 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012

KYZ090-094>096-082100-
OWEN KY-PENDLETON KY-GALLATIN KY-GRANT KY-
429 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT GRANT...SOUTHERN GALLATIN...
WESTERN PENDLETON AND NORTHERN OWEN COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM EDT...

AT 425 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
STEWARTSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO UNDER A QUARTER OF
A MILE AT TIMES.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...DRY RIDGE AND PORTIONS
IF INTERSTATE 75.

ALSO...SHERMAN...CHERRY GROVE...NORTHCUTT...WILLIAMSTOWN
LAKE...KNOXVILLE...GARDNERSVILLE...GOFORTH AND GENE SNYDER AIRPORT
ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3879 8440 3857 8436 3855 8482 3873 8486

ASL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
510 PM EDT SUN JUL 08 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE NEW COLUMBUS       38.48N 84.61W
07/08/2012                   GRANT              KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN. ALSO PEA SIZE HAIL.

&&

SNYDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
522 PM EDT SUN JUL 08 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WILLIAMSTOWN            38.64N 84.56W
07/08/2012                   GRANT              KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
552 PM EDT SUN JUL 08 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FALMOUTH                39.70N 85.30W
07/08/2012                   FAYETTE            IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN

&&

J

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
554 PM EDT SUN JUL 08 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FALMOUTH                38.67N 84.33W
07/08/2012                   PENDLETON          KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
602 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012

INZ080-KYZ090>097-099-OHZ078-079-082230-
SWITZERLAND IN-KENTON KY-MASON KY-OWEN KY-PENDLETON KY-BOONE KY-
BRACKEN KY-CAMPBELL KY-GALLATIN KY-GRANT KY-BROWN OH-CLERMONT OH-
602 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN
CLERMONT...WESTERN BROWN...GRANT...EASTERN
GALLATIN...CAMPBELL...BRACKEN...BOONE...PENDLETON...NORTHERN
OWEN...NORTHWESTERN MASON...KENTON AND EXTREME EASTERN SWITZERLAND
COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM EDT...

AT 559 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR ACROSS THE
AREA...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

WATER WILL POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

LAT...LON 3908 8388 3862 8385 3857 8481 3891 8482

ASL