Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
714 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING A
HOT AIR MASS IN PLACE. THE HEAT WAVE WILL BREAK EARLY NEXT WEEK
AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY...ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO
MOVE IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION REMAINS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION
CONTINUING TO REDEVELOP THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS NORTH AGAIN AS STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN OHIO AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. THESE WILL DROP SOUTH
SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT ATMOSPHERE HAS LARGELY RECOVERED
FROM EARLIER OUTFLOW. SO STORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH SOME OF
THESE STORMS.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO WEAKEN LATER IN THE NIGHT. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS
WARM END OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AXIS OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND
REMAIN INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO CAP OFF CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE AT OR ABOVE RECORD LEVELS.

JUL 6 RECORDS CVG  98 IN 1874
              CMH  98 IN 1881
              DAY 100 IN 1911

FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES TO 105
OR ABOVE DURING PEAK HEATING. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FA ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 100 DEGREES WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
AROUND 105 TO 110 DEGREES.  THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CONTINUES TO
BE IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY.  A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.  MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND ON PRECIPITATION.  THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FASTER AND
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER.  CONTINUED TO GO CLOSER TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION.  THIS BRINGS THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE
COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY HOWEVER STILL EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO THE LOW 90S.  MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S.  A SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING
PRECIPITATION INTO MAINLY SE PORTIONS OF THE FA FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DISORGANIZED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THIS LINE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD
THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY AFFECT NORTHERN TERMINALS FROM 00Z TO
02Z...WITH LESS LIKELY IMPACTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS. BY
LATE THIS EVENING THE THREAT FOR STORMS WILL DIMINISH...WITH
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. KLUK COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT...DIMINISHING AFTER SUNRISE. DAYTIME
FRIDAY APPEARS DRY AT THE MOMENT WITH ONLY SCATTERED CU EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
     035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR INZ050-058-
     059-066-073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...LATTO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
502 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-060915-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
502 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL GROW IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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