Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
408 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES TRAVELING ALONG A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A VERY WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WEATHER REGIME WILL
RESULT IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WHILE THE PERIOD OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSISTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT DEVELOPED IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IS
MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 443 IS IN EFFECT THERE UNTIL 8 PM. WENT WITH CAT POPS IN THE
WATCH AREA. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED SOUTHEAST OF THE WATCH AREA SO SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP
OUTSIDE OF THE CURRENT WATCH.

AFTER WIDESPREAD CONVECTION MOVES EAST AND DIMINISHES WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...THERE WILL STILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AROUND 70 FOR
LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY PARALLEL TO THE
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ON
MONDAY. WITH MODELS INDICATING LOWER INSTABILITY...PERHAPS THE
CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DIMINISHED COMPARED TO
SUNDAY.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LINGER WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 9OS AND HEAT
INDICES 100. ISSUED AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR DAYTON AND
CINCINNATI WITH A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE AREA EXCEPT
FAR NORTH AND EAST COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION
PLACING THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND ITS PERIPHERY IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THRU THURSDAY. THE MID RIDGE
BUILDS A LTL EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLD PRECIP DURG THIS PERIOD
DUE TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND BUILDING CAP IN THE FORM OF
WARM AIR ALOFT HAVE KEPT THE REGION DRY. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING FURTHER EAST AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT/THICKNESS RISES HAVE
INDICATED A RETURN TO THE EXTREME HEAT WITH HIGHS AROUND 100.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
INTO NEXT MONDAY.

HAVE TRENDED HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN MEX GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
TAFS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...IN A HOT AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED
FORCING FOR THESE STORMS...SO OVERALL COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN AND
THE STORMS MAY BE DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER...SOME STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE INSTABILITY.

HAVE INCLUDED TIMING FOR VCTS OR VCSH AT THE TAF SITES...FOCUSED
PRIMARILY ON THE DIURNAL CYCLE (AND SLIGHTLY LATER IN TIMING FOR
COLUMBUS). THERE AT LEAST SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT
THIS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW...AND EVENTUALLY MORE CONCRETE TIMING
WILL BE ABLE TO BE ADDED.

ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY ALSO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER FOR THIS PERIOD.

ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...AGAIN FAVORING THE
DIURNAL CYCLE.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ042-051>055-
     060-062>064-070>073-078>082-088.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR OHZ042-051>055-
     060-062>064-070>073-078>082-088.
     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ061-
     077.
     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR OHZ061-
     077.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
332 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

INZ050-058-059-OHZ042-051>053-060-062-021945-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-DARKE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-PREBLE-GREENE-
332 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 443 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL INDIANA AND
MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

OHZ026-034-035-043-044-021945-
HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-SHELBY-LOGAN-
332 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 443 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO AND WEST
CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

INZ066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ054-055-063-064-070>073-078>082-088-
021945-
FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-
KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-
MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-
CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
332 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO
AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

OHZ045-046-056-065-074-021945-
UNION OH-DELAWARE-LICKING-FAIRFIELD-HOCKING-
332 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

OHZ077-021945-
HAMILTON-
332 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

OHZ061-021945-
MONTGOMERY-
332 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 443 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
415 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

OHZ053-054-062-063-012115-
CLARK OH-FAYETTE OH-GREENE OH-MADISON OH-
415 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN MADISON...EASTERN
GREENE...NORTHERN FAYETTE AND SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM
EDT...

AT 406 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
GLADSTONE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...JEFFERSONVILLE...
WASHINGTON COURT HOUSE...BLOOMINGBURG AND MOUNT STERLING.

ALSO...SHADY GROVE...SOUTH SOLON...OCTA...MILLEDGEVILLE...
BOOKWALTER...MIDWAY AND MADISON MILLS ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS
STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT. IF THIS STORM BECOMES
STRONGER...THEN A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3948 8335 3968 8383 3982 8377 3979 8325
      3978 8324