Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

Fayette County, IN, Franklin County, IN, Union County, IN, Bracken County, KY, Campbell County, KY, Lewis County, KY, Mason County, KY, Adams County, OH, Brown County, OH, Butler County, OH, Champaign County, OH, Clark County, OH, Clermont County, OH, Clinton County, OH, Delaware County, OH, Fairfield County, OH, Fayette County, OH, Franklin County, OH, Greene County, OH, Hamilton County, OH, Highland County, OH, Hocking County, OH, Licking County, OH, Madison County, OH, Montgomery County, OH, Pickaway County, OH, Pike County, OH, Preble County, OH, Ross County, OH, Scioto County, OH, Union County, OH, Warren County, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
337 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SUPPRESSED ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
COMBINE WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO KEEP
A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MAIN FORECAST DILEMMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE THE
MCS/DAMAGING WIND EVENT THAT IS ABOUT TO UNFOLD ACRS OUR AREA.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 436 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER NW OHIO AND NRN INDIANA IS
EXPECTED TO RACE SE ACRS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING PER HRRR MODEL. THESE STORMS WILL FEED INTO A VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH 18Z KILN SOUNDING SHOWING MLCAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 3500 J/KG. MODERATE SHEAR IS ALSO OVER THE AREA. FOR
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...DCAPE IS APPROACHING 2000 J/KG AND DELTA
THETA E IS OVER 40 C. NONETHELESS...FORECAST AREA MAY BE DEALING
WITH A DERECHO WHICH WILL PRODUCE HIGH END WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH LOCAL HAIL STONES SIZES POTENTIALLY GREATER THAN 2
INCHES. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH FAST MOVING
STORMS...FLOODING SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MCS SHOULD BE EXITING THE SE CWFA BY
EARLY EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE
A LULL IN CONVECTION DUE TO THE AREA BEING WORKED OVER. HAVE KEPT
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE MCS.

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 8 PM...ALBEIT ONCE RAIN
COOLED AIR HITS...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL DROP. WILL DECIDE HOW TO
HANDLE THIS ONCE CONVECTION MOVES ACRS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPR LVL PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE THAT MUCH OVER THE WEEKEND AS
CENTER OF UPR LVL HIGH REMAINS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER
VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL OSCILLATE ACRS
THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ROTATING
SE THROUGH THIS FLOW FROM TIME TO TIME. TIMING OF DISTURBANCES
WILL BE PROBLEMATIC AT BEST ATTM. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST...FAVORING THE DIURNAL CYCLE. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
CONTINUE WITH SOME SLIGHT COOLING EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. HAVE
EXTENDED THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR MONTGOMERY COUNTY AND
PARTS OF SE INDIANA AND SRN OHIO AS VALUES WILL BE UP TO 107
(MONTGOMERY WILL BE UP TO 104 BUT THEY HAVE SPECIAL HEAT HEADLINE
CRITERIA). HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION. HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN SUNDAY FOR SRN
SECTIONS BUT WILL JUST MENTION THIS IN THE HWO ATTM.

HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S ON SATURDAY AND
LOWER 90S TO NEAR 100 ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THROUGH MID WEEK. INTERMITTENT
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
THROUGHOUT THE TIME PERIOD. HAVE ONLY FORECAST LOW END
MENTIONABLE POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. THESE POPS COULD BE INCREASED FAIRLY
QUICKLY AS EACH PARTICULAR WAVE BECOMES MORE APPARENT.

TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ONLY COOL BY A DEGREE OR TWO AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 70S THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX HAS DEVELOPED INTO NW INDIANA ALONG AND NORTH
OF A QUASI-STATIONARY SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS ORIENTED W-E
THRU THE I-70 CORRIDOR ACRS OHIO. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING
EXACT STORM EVOLUTION THIS AFTN. LEANING TOWARD LATEST HRRR
SOLN WHICH HAS BEEN POINTING TO THIS DEVELOPMENT FOR SEVERAL RUNS...
EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO DROP ESE AND BUILD S INTO VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WHERE BLYR CAPES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 4000 J/KG. HAVE
A PERIOD OF VCTS THIS AFTN AT ALL TAF SITES AND HAVE A TEMPO GROUP
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTS TO 35KTS AT KDAY WHERE BEST THREAT EXISTS.

EXPECT CLOUDS TO GIVE WAY TO CLEARING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM
THIS EVENING. IN HUMID AIRMASS...FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND
HAVE A MENTION OF MVFR VSBY REDUCTION AT KCVG/KLUK AND KILN.

ON SATURDAY...BEST FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF THE
TAF SITES. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT THE TAFS DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-
     034-035-042>046-051>056-060-062>065-070>074-080-082.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060-062>065-070>074-080-
     082.
     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ061-
     077>079-081-088.
KY...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-
     058-059-066.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     INZ050-058-059-066.
     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR INZ073>075-
     080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...LATTO
AVIATION...AR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
339 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

INZ050-058-059-066-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060-062>065-
070>074-080-082-301945-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-
BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HIGHLAND-PIKE-
339 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF
OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.
   HEAT ADVISORY.

A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD ACTIVATE AND REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

INZ073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ061-077>079-081-088-301945-
RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-
CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-
MONTGOMERY-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-ADAMS-SCIOTO-
339 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.

A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE
NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD ACTIVATE AND REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
409 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ROCKFORD                40.69N 84.65W
06/29/2012                   MERCER             OH   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL BUILDINGS WITH STRUCTURAL DAMAGE. ROOF PARTIALLY
            TORN OFF ALONG SOUTH MAIN STREET. 2 FOOT DIAMETER TREE
            BLOCKING ROUTE 118 ON THE SOUTH END OF ROCKFORD.

&&

JDR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
414 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     TSTM WND DMG     N BUCKLAND              40.62N 84.26W
06/29/2012                   AUGLAIZE           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            VERY LARGE LIMBS BROKEN. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

SNYDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
416 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0414 PM     TSTM WND DMG     KENTON                  40.64N 83.61W
06/29/2012                   HARDIN             OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN...SOME ON CARS.

&&

BINAU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
417 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0416 PM     TSTM WND GST     KDAY DAYTON COX APT     39.90N 84.22W
06/29/2012  M70 MPH          MONTGOMERY         OH   ASOS

&&

BINAU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
419 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0414 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ENGLEWOOD               39.86N 84.31W
06/29/2012                   MONTGOMERY         OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL LARGE TREE BRANCHES DOWN.

&&

JDR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
419 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

INZ050-058-059-066-074-KYZ091>093-096-097-099-100-OHZ026-044>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-292215-
UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-DEARBORN IN-FAYETTE IN-WAYNE IN-KENTON KY-
LEWIS KY-MASON KY-PENDLETON KY-BOONE KY-BRACKEN KY-CAMPBELL KY-
ADAMS OH-BROWN OH-BUTLER OH-CHAMPAIGN OH-CLARK OH-CLINTON
OH-DELAWARE OH-FAIRFIELD OH-FAYETTE OH-FRANKLIN OH-GREENE
OH-HAMILTON OH-HARDIN OH-HOCKING OH-LICKING OH-LOGAN OH-MADISON
OH-MIAMI OH-MONTGOMERY OH-PICKAWAY OH-PIKE OH-PREBLE OH-ROSS
OH-SCIOTO OH-UNION OH-WARREN OH-CLERMONT OH-HIGHLAND OH-
419 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE WHITEWATER AND MIAMI VALLEYS...CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWEST
OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND PARTS OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY THROUGH 8
PM EDT...

THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 80 MPH AT TIMES.
SINCE THE LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE MOVING RAPIDLY
SOUTHEAST AROUND 60 MPH...THEY WILL COME UP YOU QUICKLY. TAKE ACTION
NOW AND KNOW WHERE TO GO FOR SAFETY...ESPECIALLY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE!

IN ADDITION...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

THIS INCLUDES THE DAYTON...CINCINNATI AND COLUMBUS METRO AREAS.

DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS. MOVE INDOORS WHEN THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH. WATER WILL POND
ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE PREPARED FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

LAT...LON 3872 8302 3875 8288 3859 8275 3860 8274
      3936 8274 3938 8229 3949 8216 3983 8247
      3993 8246 3995 8219 4024 8218 4028 8274
      4051 8341 4062 8342 3996 8396 3968 8531
      3948 8531 3847 8381 3852 8364 3832 8335