Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
738 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRAVELS UP THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A COOL
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE LOW. DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND AN
UPPER LOW MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRAVELING UP THE OHIO VALLEY TO CVG THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL ARRIVE FIRST IN THE WEST
AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MODELS INDICATE THAT
INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK...ROUGHLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THIS WILL CAUSE THE MAIN THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS TO BE IN THE CINCINNATI AREA AND TO THE SOUTH. WITH
WINDS TURNING WITH HEIGHT FROM SSE NEAR THE SURFACE TO SW
ALOFT...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE RELATIVELY EARLY TONIGHT WHILE
INSTABILITY LINGERS...THOUGH FAVORABLE WIND FIELDS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST. LOWS AROUND 60 ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO TO LAKE ERIE
BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING IN THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT ON A BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE LOW...WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM TIME FRAME WILL START OUT DRY SATURDAY MORNING HOWEVER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.  WITH NW FLOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL WORK INTO THE FA.  MODELS ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THESE FEATURES.  DUE TO
RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES WENT WITH A BLEND.  DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
THEN WORK INTO THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.  TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN BE SLIGHTLY BELOW TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE LONG TERM TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AN
INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
WESTERN TERMINALS KCVG/KLUK/KDAY BETWEEN 00Z TO 02Z. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL THEN HEAD NORTHEASTWARD AND AFFECT KILN/KCMH/KLCK LATE THIS
EVENING. THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST WIND DIRECTION
TONIGHT...AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS OUR AREA. AFTER
THE INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SHOWERS WILL
LINGER IN THE VICINITY GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. JUST AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE AFTER 09Z ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS...SPREADING
ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS AFTER SUNRISE. BY 15Z...ALL TERMINALS
SHOULD BE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR AND
WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST. HAVE ADDED GUSTS TO THE FORECAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...LATTO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
931 AM EDT THU MAY 31 2012

INZ050-058-059-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-011345-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-
UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-
PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-
931 AM EDT THU MAY 31 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

INZ066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ070>074-077>082-088-011345-
FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-
KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-
BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-
ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
931 AM EDT THU MAY 31 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO
AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL
BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT
WILL ALSO EXIST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
726 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2012

INZ066-073>075-080-KYZ089>091-094-095-OHZ077-010030-
SWITZERLAND IN-OHIO IN-FRANKLIN IN-DEARBORN IN-RIPLEY IN-OWEN KY-
BOONE KY-CARROLL KY-GALLATIN KY-GRANT KY-HAMILTON OH-
726 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2012

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN
HAMILTON...GRANT...GALLATIN...CARROLL...BOONE...OWEN...RIPLEY...
DEARBORN...SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN...OHIO AND SWITZERLAND COUNTIES
THROUGH 830 PM EDT...

AT 724 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM OTTER VILLAGE TO ENGLISH TO 17 MILES SOUTH OF
MONTEREY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS.

IN ADDITION...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...OSGOOD...VERSAILLES...
VEVAY...MILAN...DILLSBORO...OWENTON...MOORES HILL...WARSAW...RISING
SUN...AURORA...LAWRENCEBURG AND GREENDALE.

ALSO...ENGLISH...BRAYTOWN...LANGSTAFF...BENHAM...MOOREFIELD...
WORTHVILLE...CROSS PLAINS AND OLEAN ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS LINE OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS. MOVE INDOORS WHEN THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH. WATER WILL POND
ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

LAT...LON 3919 8545 3945 8486 3914 8472 3907 8462
      3880 8462 3879 8453 3854 8447 3833 8478
      3842 8489 3844 8497 3851 8499 3851 8503
      3856 8501 3859 8509 3858 8522 3874 8532
      3870 8522 3891 8521 3891 8539 3905 8545

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