Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
715 PM EDT MON APR 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTERMITTENTLY ACROSS OUR AREA FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...CONTINUING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM...CMC REGIONAL...AND ARW FOR THE
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING.

A DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS IS INTERACTING WITH A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WEST OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS
INITIATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS ILLINOIS/INDIANA/WESTERN KENTUCKY. STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL
DEEP LAYER SHEER WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE THESE STORMS...MOST LIKELY
INTO AN MCS...AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. A FEW
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE CELLS MAY ALSO POP UP OUT AHEAD OF THE
MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

AS THE CONVECTION SPREADS RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER THIS
EVENING...THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF...ISOLATED
TORNADO.

MOST HI RES AND REGIONAL MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING THAT THIS
COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL PROGRESS FAIRLY QUICKLY EASTWARD...POSSIBLY
LEAVING OUR FORECAST AREA CONVECTION FREE JUST A COUPLE HOURS
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. HAVE FORECAST CATEGORICAL POPS WEST TO
EAST...WITH THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 23Z AND 04Z...DECREASING THEM
RAPIDLY THEREAFTER. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...HAVE KEPT
CHANCE POPS SOUTH WHERE A TRAILING BOUNDARY MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT.
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH WERE ALSO
MENTIONED...AS POSSIBLE SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE
DEPARTING MCS. RAIN COOLED OVERNIGHT LOWS IN A WARM AIRMASS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE NORTH...TO THE LOW 60S ACROSS
THE SOUTH. IF SOME CLEARING OCCURS BEHIND CONVECTION LATE
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES COULD DROP A FEW DEGREES MORE THAN
FORECAST...WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT BECOMING POSSIBLE AT THAT POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA TO
START OFF TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE POISED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATER ON TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WITH SOME SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED TO
START OFF THE DAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S POSSIBLE. THIS NEXT WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE
FORECAST A GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS OVERNIGHT TO REFLECT THIS.
THE WARM AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH 60S
EXPECTED AREA-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A DECREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MID LEVEL RIDGING
WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
RISING HEIGHTS AND 8H TEMPS PUSHING UP INTO THE 16 TO 18 DEGREE
CELSIUS RANGE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A DECENT
WARM UP THROUGH MID WEEK WITH HIGHS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WELL
INTO THE 80S.

SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES THEN EXIST WITH HOW FAST/HOW MUCH THE RIDGE
WILL BREAK DOWN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND AS A RESULT...THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF A COLD FRONT THAT MAY SAG DOWN INTO THE
AREA. THE 30.00Z ECMWF WAS THE SLOWEST WITH THIS AND A QUICK LOOK AT
THE 30.12Z ECMWF LOOKS LIKE IT IS EVEN SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THE
RIDGE. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...WILL SLOW DOWN THE ONSET OF PCPN
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WILL THEN ALLOW FOR THE FRONT TO PUSH
DOWN INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT BASED ON THE
LATEST ECMWF...NOT SURE HOW FAR IT WILL ACTUALLY GET. WILL THEREFORE
LINGER AT LEAST LOW POPS ALL THE WAY INTO SUNDAY. THE 30.12Z GFS IS
BRINGING CONSIDERABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
WEEKEND BUT AGAIN...THE ECMWF IS TRENDING SLOWER/WARMER. WILL GO
AHEAD AND TAKE A BLEND OF THE TWO WITH MORE OF AN EMPHASIS TOWARD
THE WARMER ECMWF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROKEN LINE OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROF ACRS
INDIANA IN MARGINALLY UNSTBL AIRMASS. THIS CONVECTION WILL PUSH EAST
ACRS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z. EXPECT SOME GENERAL WEAKENING
AS THESE STORMS MOVE INTO A REGION OF MIN INSTBY (BOUNDARY LAYER
CAPES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG) ACRS WESTERN OHIO. EXPECT MVFR CIGS
AND OCNL IFR VSBYS IN THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST/NW WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30KTS POSSIBLE WITH THE
STORMS. IN THE WAKE OF THESE STORMS...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH MVFR VSBYS DUE TO BR WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT WSW LATE AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THRU THE TAF SITES
AND STALLS OUT E-W JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AND WEAK SFC HI
BUILDS IN.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION EARLY OFFERING A TEMPORARY LULL IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
TUE AFTN INTO TUE NIGHT AS THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS N AS
A WARM FRONT. AT THIS TIME HAVE VCTS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...AR

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
755 PM EDT MON APR 30 2012

OHZ026-035-042>046-051>055-060>063-071-010100-
AUGLAIZE OH-CHAMPAIGN OH-CLARK OH-DARKE OH-DELAWARE OH-FAYETTE OH-
FRANKLIN OH-GREENE OH-HARDIN OH-LOGAN OH-MADISON OH-MIAMI OH-
MONTGOMERY OH-PREBLE OH-SHELBY OH-UNION OH-WARREN OH-
755 PM EDT MON APR 30 2012

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EXTREME NORTHERN
WARREN...UNION...SOUTHEASTERN SHELBY...PREBLE...MONTGOMERY...MIAMI...
MADISON...LOGAN...HARDIN...GREENE...NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN...
NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE...WESTERN DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN DARKE...
CLARK...CHAMPAIGN AND EASTERN AUGLAIZE COUNTIES THROUGH 900 PM EDT...

AT 752 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM FOREST TO MILLERSTOWN TO CAMDEN...MOVING EAST AT 50
MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...WEST LIBERTY...
TROTWOOD...VANDALIA...WEST MANSFIELD...NEW CARLISLE...NORTHRIDGE...
HUBER HEIGHTS...DAYTON...CARLISLE...URBANA...MIAMISBURG AND NORTH
LEWISBURG.

ALSO...NEW LEBANON...HAVEN VIEW...PFEIFFER...RIDGEWAY...WEST
ELKTON...NEW JERUSALEM...ZANESFIELD AND HEPBURN ARE NEAR THE PATH OF
THIS LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

LAT...LON 4082 8349 4071 8349 4071 8344 4068 8341
      4051 8341 4051 8325 4045 8324 4044 8302
      4041 8292 4036 8291 4011 8308 3955 8358
      3958 8437 3959 8437 3959 8482 3962 8482
      4008 8456 4082 8368

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