Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
712 PM EDT SAT APR 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA LATER
TONIGHT. AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA
AS A WARM FRONT. THE LOW WILL THEN PUSH EASTWARD...BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE EAST
SOUTHEAST ALONG AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT THAT RESIDES FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF INDIANA...TO JUST SOUTH OF OWEN COUNTY
KENTUCKY. THIS AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. THIS MEANS THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR AREA SHOULD REMAIN ALONG THE
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER
NORTH OF THIS INSTABILITY GRADIENT WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM NOW UNTIL MIDNIGHT. IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT.

BY MIDNIGHT...THE BULK OF HEAVER SHOWERS WOULD HAVE
ENDED...LEAVING MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. WILL KEEP CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
SURROUNDING AND INCLUDING OUR OHIO RIVER ZONES...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES ELSEWHERE.

ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S OVERNIGHT. A STRONG
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...WITH
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING. AN ONGOING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR JUST NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY...ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
ELSEWHERE...UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...ENOUGH SUN
SHOULD MAKE IT THROUGH THE CLOUD COVER TO HELP TEMPERATURES RISE
INTO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...ACROSS THE SOUTH...TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE LOW
70S.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE EAST WILL HELP PULL THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LOW WILL THEN PUSH
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT...PRODUCING ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. DURING THE DAY MONDAY OUR
AREA WILL BECOME WARM SECTORED. WITH RETURN FLOW IN PLACE...
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AREA WIDE. A
FEW 80S CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR SOUTH AS WELL. MONDAY NIGHT
WILL ALSO BE A WARM ONE...WITH MID 50S TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED.

ONCE THE LOW PASSES...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL LAY OUT ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THESE ZONES INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING ALOFT TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE SHORT WAVE PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST...EXPECT PCPN TO TAPER OFF LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WITH RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA AND BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
MID WEEK. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WARMING
INTO THE LOWER 80S BY WEDNESDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXISTS BETWEEN THE MODELS...BUT IT APPEARS THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN WOULD BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO A RETURN
TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SLOW MOVING EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SRN
IL THRU EXTREME SRN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. MODERATE SURFACE
BASED INSTBY EXISTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FRONT. A BAND OF
MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTBY EXISTS JUST N OF THIS FRONT. A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER SRN IL WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THIS FRONT. THIS
WILL ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACRS NRN KY AND SRN
OH THRU THE EVENING. THEREFORE...HAVE A MENTION OF THUNDER ACRS
THE SRN TAF SITES WITH SHOWERS TO THE NORTH. WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE SFC LOW...CHANCES FOR THUNDER WILL END. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
DROP INTO MVFR CATEGORY WITH CIGS DEVELOPING AROUND 2500 FEET.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD THRU MOST OF THE NIGHT. MID
LEVEL RIDGE TO TEMPORARILY BUILD ACRS THE REGION DURG THE DAY ON
SUNDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.
AFTER EARLY MORNING MVFR CIGS EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
DURG THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...AR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
836 PM EDT SAT APR 28 2012

INZ050-058-059-066-073-074-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-
070>074-077-080-082-300045-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-HARDIN-MERCER-
AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-
MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-
PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-
HIGHLAND-PIKE-
836 PM EDT SAT APR 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF
OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

INZ075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ078-079-081-088-300045-
OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-CLERMONT-BROWN-ADAMS-SCIOTO-
836 PM EDT SAT APR 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTHWEST
OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A WARM FRONT STALLED SOUTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
830 PM EDT SAT APR 28 2012

INZ080-KYZ089-090-094-095-290115-
SWITZERLAND IN-OWEN KY-CARROLL KY-GALLATIN KY-GRANT KY-
830 PM EDT SAT APR 28 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EXTREME WESTERN GRANT...SOUTHERN
GALLATIN...CARROLL...WESTERN OWEN AND SWITZERLAND COUNTIES THROUGH
915 PM EDT...

AT 828 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LOCUST...
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...CARROLLTON AND OWENTON.

ALSO...LOCUST...PRESTONVILLE...BRAYTOWN...GENERAL BUTLER STATE
PARK...ENGLISH...LANGSTAFF...EASTERDAY AND GHENT ARE NEAR THE PATH OF
THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3874 8526 3870 8522 3876 8521 3874 8476
      3844 8481 3848 8499 3852 8499 3850 8503
      3852 8503 3856 8501 3856 8507 3859 8509
      3858 8521 3863 8523 3874 8534

ASL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
913 PM EDT SAT APR 28 2012

KYZ089-090-094>097-290215-
OWEN KY-PENDLETON KY-BRACKEN KY-CARROLL KY-GALLATIN KY-GRANT KY-
913 PM EDT SAT APR 28 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT GRANT...EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
GALLATIN...CARROLL...SOUTHWESTERN BRACKEN...SOUTHERN PENDLETON AND
OWEN COUNTIES THROUGH 1015 PM EDT...

AT 910 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
WORTHVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...OWENTON...DRY RIDGE...
WILLIAMSTOWN AND FALMOUTH.

ALSO...EAGLE STATION...WHEATLEY...CARSON...SANDERS...SQUIRESVILLE...
GRATZ...SPARTA AND NEW LIBERTY ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM.

WATER WILL POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

LAT...LON 3837 8490 3842 8489 3842 8495 3847 8496
      3849 8500 3851 8499 3851 8503 3856 8501
      3856 8507 3859 8509 3859 8515 3870 8514
      3871 8419 3855 8420 3855 8422 3857 8421
      3856 8441 3853 8443 3849 8456 3836 8473