Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
159 PM EDT WED APR 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS WORKED TO AROUND THE OHIO RIVER BASED ON THE
14Z OBS. STILL SEEING SOME CONVECTION TRYING TO DEVELOP N OF THE
FRONT ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FA
TODAY. THE BEST CHC WILL BE ACROSS KENTUCKY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FNT THIS AFTERNOON. LOWERED POPS TO 20 ACROSS MUCH OF OHIO/SE
INDIANA COUNTIES...WITH CHC POPS ACROSS KENTUCKY INTO EXTREME SRN
OH/INDIANA.

BUMPED HIGHS DOWN A DEGREE OR SO IN THE N BASED ON THE LATEST
GUIDIANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS MAY LINGER MAINLY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT OVER TENNESSEE. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT IN A
REGIME OF MODEST LIFT AND MOISTURE. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH.

PATCHY FROST MAY OCCUR TONIGHT OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES AND DOWN TO
THE OHIO RIVER ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE COOLER AIRMASS BECOMES
ESTABLISHED UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
30S. FROST FORMATION MAY BE MITIGATED BY WINDS AROUND THE EDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH WILL BUILD OVERHEAD...LEADING TO CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. FROST WILL BE A CONCERN OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA EXCEPT PERHAPS NORTHERN KY...AND THE TYPICAL COOLER LOCALES
EAST OF COLUMBUS MAY APPROACH FREEZING (THESE TEMPERATURES
REPRESENT A DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST). AS
THE HIGH SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY AND PROMOTE TEMPERATURES TO RISE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO APPROACH FROM THE ROCKIES WILL MAINLY
SERVE TO SQUASH THE UPPER RIDGE...WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY REMAINING
NORTH OF THE AREA. A SFC LOW WILL TRACK WELL NORTH INTO
CANADA...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
MODELS DISAGREE A LITTLE ON TIMING...BUT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY A
DAYTIME EVENT...SO DELAYED POPS A LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. IN
WESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE...THE FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE
STARVED...SO MAINTAINED THE LOW CHANCE POPS. INSTBY WILL BE WEAK BUT
PRESENT (MORESO SOUTH)...SO KEPT THUNDER MENTION. AIRMASS CHANGE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MINIMAL AS WEAK SFC RIDING EXTENDS INTO THE
AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

AS UPPER LEVEL GYRE FORMS OVER EASTERN CANADA...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL ROTATE DOWN THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THIS SYSTEMS WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AS WELL...SO LIMITED FORECAST
TO CHANCE POPS. LEFT THUNDER MENTION OUT WITH LIMITED INSTBY AND
HIGHER THETA-E SUPPRESSED FAR TO OUR SOUTH. WHILE MODELS DIFFER WITH
TIMING AND EXACT FEATURES...THEY AGREE ON THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL
EFFECT FROM THIS SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BE THE COLDER AIR IT PULLS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO EXPAND ESPECIALLY IN THE EXTREME S AS
HEATING COMBINES WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STILL
SEEING A LINE OF CONVECTION FARTHER N...CLOSE TO I-70 ALONG THE
DEWPOINT GRADIENT. EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO AFFECT THE SRN TAFS
THRU SUNSET. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO SHUNT ALL CONVECTION S OF
THE AREA AS THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PROGRESSES. PUT A PERIOD OF
TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THUNDER IN CVG/LUK TO COVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE FRONT BEING PUSHED S...CUT BACK
THE PCPN TO A VCSH BY 00Z. LINGERED A VCSH IN CVG/LUK UNTIL ABOUT 04Z.

LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM S TO N...WITH SOME CI WORKING IN
OVERTOP AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...SITES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
523 AM EDT WED APR 4 2012

INZ075-080-KYZ089>098-050930-
OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-
523 AM EDT WED APR 4 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND
NORTHERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

INZ050-058-059-066-073-074-KYZ099-100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-
060>065-070>074-077>082-088-050930-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-MASON-LEWIS-
HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-
CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-
FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-
HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
523 AM EDT WED APR 4 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...CENTRAL
OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO
AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR FROST FORMATION ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
137 PM EDT WED APR 4 2012

OHZ081-088-041800-
ADAMS OH-SCIOTO OH-
137 PM EDT WED APR 4 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN SCIOTO AND SOUTHERN
ADAMS COUNTIES THROUGH 200 PM EDT...

AT 136 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WEST
UNION...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN
ADAMS AND SOUTHWESTERN SCIOTO COUNTIES...INCLUDING ROME...TURKEY
CREEK LAKE AND BLUE CREEK.

LAT...LON 3865 8335 3866 8337 3867 8345 3870 8351
      3868 8362 3869 8364 3884 8361 3882 8313
      3863 8317

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
143 PM EDT WED APR 4 2012

INZ075-080-KYZ090-091-041815-
SWITZERLAND IN-OHIO IN-BOONE KY-GALLATIN KY-
143 PM EDT WED APR 4 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN GALLATIN...BOONE...OHIO
AND SWITZERLAND COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM EDT...

AT 142 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
FAIRVIEW...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...RISING SUN AND WARSAW.

ALSO...JACKSONVILLE...CENTER SQUARE...ALLENSVILLE...ABERDEEN...EAST
ENTERPRISE...PATE...MARKLAND AND ETHRIDGE ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS
STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3893 8517 3893 8514 3896 8512 3895 8511
      3894 8512 3895 8507 3896 8507 3895 8506
      3897 8505 3896 8475 3873 8479 3880 8516

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
202 PM EDT WED APR 4 2012

KYZ099-100-OHZ079-081-041830-
LEWIS KY-MASON KY-ADAMS OH-BROWN OH-
202 PM EDT WED APR 4 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN BROWN...
SOUTHWESTERN ADAMS...NORTHEASTERN MASON AND NORTHWESTERN LEWIS
COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM EDT...

AT 200 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
BRADYSVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...ABERDEEN...MAYSVILLE...
TOLLESBORO AND MANCHESTER.

ALSO...BENTONVILLE...BRADYSVILLE...ORANGEBURG...RECTORVILLE...CONCORD
AND TRINITY ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3871 8389 3885 8374 3867 8343 3850 8361

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
203 PM EDT WED APR 4 2012

KYZ090-091-094>096-041830-
OWEN KY-PENDLETON KY-BOONE KY-GALLATIN KY-GRANT KY-
203 PM EDT WED APR 4 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT GRANT...EASTERN GALLATIN...
EXTREME SOUTHERN BOONE...WESTERN PENDLETON AND NORTHERN OWEN COUNTIES
THROUGH 230 PM EDT...

AT 200 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
ELLISTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...CRITTENDEN...
WILLIAMSTOWN AND DRY RIDGE.

ALSO...KNOXVILLE...SHERMAN...WILLIAMSTOWN LAKE...STEWARTSVILLE...TWIN
BRIDGES...HOLBROOK...LAWRENCEVILLE AND KEEFER ARE NEAR THE PATH OF
THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3873 8490 3879 8484 3878 8482 3879 8481
      3881 8482 3887 8475 3869 8444 3852 8463

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
210 PM EDT WED APR 4 2012

KYZ096>099-041845-
MASON KY-PENDLETON KY-ROBERTSON KY-BRACKEN KY-
210 PM EDT WED APR 4 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN BRACKEN...ROBERTSON...
SOUTHEASTERN PENDLETON AND WESTERN MASON COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM
EDT...

AT 212 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MILFORD...
MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
ROBERTSON...SOUTHEASTERN PENDLETON...SOUTHERN BRACKEN AND WESTERN
MASON COUNTIES...INCLUDING MILFORD...PETRA...POWERSVILLE...SANTA
FE...KENTONTOWN...PIQUA...MITCHELLS MILL...ABIGAIL...HITTVILLE...
STONEWALL AND MOUNT OLIVET.

LAT...LON 3848 8417 3850 8419 3852 8419 3855 8417
      3855 8421 3856 8422 3858 8421 3857 8429
      3857 8431 3869 8427 3864 8394 3843 8401

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
213 PM EDT WED APR 4 2012

KYZ100-OHZ081-088-041845-
LEWIS KY-ADAMS OH-SCIOTO OH-
213 PM EDT WED APR 4 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN SCIOTO...EASTERN ADAMS
AND EXTREME NORTHEASTERN LEWIS COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM EDT...

AT 212 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BLUE
CREEK...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...ROSEMOUNT AND
PORTSMOUTH.

ALSO...TURKEY CREEK LAKE...MCDERMOTT...LOMBARDSVILLE...FRIENDSHIP...
SAINT PAUL...FIREBRICK AND WEST PORTSMOUTH ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS
STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3872 8343 3889 8337 3882 8294 3872 8297
      3872 8302 3870 8303 3868 8302 3863 8306