Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
839 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
MONDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN
ITSELF OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PUSHING DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO. THE 00Z ILN SOUNDING WAS STILL SHOWING
ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE SO DO NO WANT TO COMPLETELY WRITE THINGS
OFF. WITH SOME LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...SUPPOSE WE COULD STILL SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS WILL TRIM BACK
POPS TO JUST A LOW CHANCE. GOOD CAA WILL PUSH DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT SO WILL TWEAK DOWN TEMPS
A TAD...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FA.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.

MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME. WENT CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION DURING THIS TIME.
THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE
TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR TUESDAY
IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL BE LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES BEFORE COMPLETELY PUSHING SOUTH.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL
RIDGE INTO THE AREA. AN UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES
REGARDING HOW CLOSE THIS WILL COME TO THE FORECAST AREA WHICH SEEM
TO HINGE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER MARITIME CANADA.
SO AT THIS POINT WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AREA WIDE ON SATURDAY. THEN A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP CLOSE TO NORMAL EARLY IN
THE PERIOD AND THEN GRADUALLY WARM AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MANAGED TO OVERCOME
THE CIN ACROSS THE AREA. INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK THOUGH WITH
MLCAPES OF ONLY 200 J/KG OR SO. ELEVATED INSTABILITIES ARE A
LITTLE BETTER WITH MUCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. SUPPOSE IF WE COULD
TAP INTO THIS...WE COULD GET SOME BETTER COVERAGE...BUT THAT IS
SEEMING MORE AND MORE UNLIKELY. RIGHT NOW...THE STRONGER STORMS
ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME MAINTAINING THEMSELVES. AS BOUNDARY PUSHES
SOUTH THROUGH EARLY MORNING...THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...GIVEN
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT...WILL DOWNPLAY THUNDER IN THE TAFS. AS WE
GET INTO SOME CAA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT...CIGS MAY LOWER
TO MVFR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ANY LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD
THEN LIFT THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JGL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
807 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-030015-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
807 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. A FEW IF THE STORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS. LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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