Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
801 PM EDT FRI MAR 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN AGAIN ON SATURDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SEEING SOME SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN
ERN IL/WRN IN. THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN PUSHING THE LOW
EASTWARD ALONG WITH ITS ATTENDANT CDFNT. MESOSCALE MODELS FORM A
LINE OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE CDFNT IN INDIANA AND BRING IT INTO
THE NW AROUND 21Z. LINE WORKS ACROSS THE FA REACHING THE SE BY
03Z. FRONT TRIES TO LAY OUT ACROSS THE S...SO MIGHT SEE SOME
LINGERING PCPN THERE AFT 06Z...BUT DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY WANES QUICKLY.

WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR LOWS TONIGHT...PUTTING UPPER 30S IN
THE N AND LOWER 50S IN THE S. NOT EXPECTING A CHANCE OF FROST
TONIGHT IN THE N AS MODELS ARE BRINGING IN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS POST
FRONTAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT SFC NOSES DOWN INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
MODELS ARE SHOWING ABUNDANT H9 MOISTURE OVER THE FA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE DAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS MIX OUT AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES.

THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
FLOW ALOFT TURNS TO THE NW SATURDAY AS H5 RIDGE BUILDS IN THE
PLAINS. A BACKDOOR CDFNT DROPS THROUGH THE LAKES SUNDAY. MODELS
DIFFER A LITTLE IN THE SCENARIO. THE GFS/ECMWF DROP CDFNT DOWN
ACROSS THE FA WITH SCT CONVECTION. THE NAM IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THE FNT AND FARTHER N. DECIDED TO GO WITH THE GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTION...SO BROUGHT CHC POPS IN SUNDAY AND MOVED THEM INTO THE
SRN AND WRN SECTIONS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

NAM MOS TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH COOLER FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY. A MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT HIGHS CLOSER TO THE GFS MOS SEEM MORE
REASONABLE. SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR PATCHY FROST IN THE NE
FOR THAT TIME...BUT RIGHT NOW FEEL IT IS TOO EARLY TO WORRY ABOUT
IT TOO MUCH. TEMPERATURES REBOUND QUICKLY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. ONCE AGAIN LEANED TOWARDS THE WARMER GFS MOS VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z
MONDAY MORNING WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. THE MODELS
ARE TRYING TO SHOW THIS FRONT LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AS A
WARM FRNT THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY...BUT DISAGREE ON BOTH THE
TIMING AND THE STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE. WILL THEREFORE JUST HANG ON
TO SOME LOWER CHANCE POPS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE ALSO HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING THE SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH MID WEEK. BOTH THE 12Z
NAM AND 12Z CMC ARE TRYING TO CLOSE OFF A 5H LOW AS IT MOVES INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE 00Z
ECMWF KEEPS THE CLOSED LOW WELL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND AS A
RESULT IS MUCH SLOWER TO BRING RIDGING IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH
LATE IN THE WEEK. IN FACT...THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY TUESDAY AS THE INITIAL ENERGY APPROACHES BUT THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG ANY TREAT WILL HANG AROUND INTO THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE WEEK. WITH THE CLOSED LOW OF THE GFS/CMC WOULD THINK ANY
LINGERING PCPN WOULD MAINLY REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE...ANY
PCPN PUSHING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH OF THE ECMWF SHOULD
MAINLY REMAIN TO OUR EAST. WILL THEREFORE GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
FROM MID WEEK ON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH WITH THIS
FORECAST. OF COURSE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL ALSO BE
AFFECTED BY ALL OF THIS. WILL GENERALLY GO WITH A BLEND OF
PERSISTENCE AND THE MODELS BUT PERHAPS TREND A LITTLE MORE TOWARD
THE COOLER ECMWF...WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY SEASONABLE
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS AND BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. TIMED IN SOME WIND
GUSTS ACROSS THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STORMS
WILL EXIT ALL THE AREA TAF SITES BY AROUND 04Z. VFR CONDITIONS CAN
THEN BE EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE MVFR CIGS MOVE INTO THE
AREA FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...NOVAK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1046 AM EDT FRI MAR 30 2012

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-311500-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
1046 AM EDT FRI MAR 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...BUT ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
859 PM EDT FRI MAR 30 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0842 PM     HAIL             5 SSE MILFORD           39.10N 84.26W
03/30/2012  M0.75 INCH       CLERMONT           OH   PUBLIC

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
909 PM EDT FRI MAR 30 2012

OHZ064-065-074-310145-
FAIRFIELD OH-HOCKING OH-PICKAWAY OH-
909 PM EDT FRI MAR 30 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN PICKAWAY...HOCKING
AND SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD COUNTIES THROUGH 945 PM EDT...

AT 906 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
CIRCLEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...SUGAR GROVE...
ROCKBRIDGE...CARBON HILL AND LOGAN.

ALSO...RINGGOLD...STOUTSVILLE...WHISLER...TARLTON...AMANDA...
CLEARPORT...HIDEAWAY HILLS AND ENTERPRISE ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS
STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3947 8216 3947 8227 3943 8228 3951 8305
      3965 8300 3971 8288 3968 8237 3960 8237
      3960 8226 3956 8225 3956 8215