Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
752 PM EDT SUN MAR 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE INTERACTING WITH AN UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND POSSIBLY ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL MOVE IN LATE MONDAY
WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO THE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
OHIO. A 500 MB WIND SPEED MAX WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM FORMATION
AND STRENGTH. IN ADDITION...WBZ AROUND 9 KFT FAVORS LARGE HAIL. AS
THUNDERSTORMS EXPAND IN COVERAGE...SOME CELLS MAY BECOME SEVERE
AND SPC HAS PLACED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD FALL APART QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING
WANES AND FORCING SHIFTS EASTWARD. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM
FORMATION ON MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE STARTING TO BUILD
IN...ANOTHER WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY HELP A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LINGERING
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ANY ACTIVITY WILL END MONDAY EVENING AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHEAST AND DAYTIME HEATING LESSENS.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN
BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...CONVECTION WILL BE ABSENT...SKIES WILL BE MAINLY
CLEAR...AND TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UNSEASONABLY WARM. HIGHS AROUND
80 EACH DAY WILL BE CLOSE TO OR ABOVE DAILY RECORD HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH A LARGE SPRAWLING
RIDGE CONTINUING  TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. PREFER SLOWER ECMWF SOLN GIVEN HIGH DEGREE OF
AMPLIFICATION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS
AND DRY WEATHER WEATHER THRU MID WEEK.

HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FCST FOR WED AND THURSDAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO 80 SOUTH ON BOTH WED AND THU.
AGAIN RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN JEOPARDY. RECORD HIGHS
FOR WED ARE 82 AT CVG, 78 AT DAY AND 77 AT CMH. THE RECORDS FOR
THURSDAY ARE  WARMER WITH...85 CVG, 84 AT DAY AND 82 AT CMH.

NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER BUT ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT
TIME WITH CONSISTENCY REGARDING EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF UPPER LOW
OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION. WILL INTRODUCE LOW POPS INTO THE SW
EARLY FRIDAY AND THEN SPREAD CHC POPS NE ACRS THE FA DURG THE DAY.

WL BUMP POPS UP TO HIGH CHC EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. UNDER CONTD INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW...WL
CONTINUE LOW POPS THRU SAT AND THEN DIMINISH TO SLIGHT CHC ON SUNDAY
AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT SE.

HIGH TEMPS WILL COOL BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH FCST HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S/70S ON FRIDAY AND LOWER AND MID 60S SATURDAY AND THEN
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH NE OHIO COMBINED WITH AN AREA OF
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO CENTRAL OHIO HAS PRODUCED THUNDERSTORMS
THERE. WILL CONTINUE WITH TSRA AND HEAVY RAIN WITH IFR VSBYS AT
KCMH AND KLCK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AS INSTABILITY
DECREASES AND VORT MAX MOVES FARTHER AWAY...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...JUST SOME MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS
EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. GIVEN HIGH DEWPOINTS AND RECENT
RAINFALL...WOULD EXPECTED SOME MVFR AND LOCALLY IFR VSBYS. HAVE
PLACED IFR VSBYS AT KLUK...AND KCMH...KLCK WHICH HAD SOME HEAVY
RAIN.

ON MONDAY...A MID LVL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD NORTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. AIRMASS WILL DESTABILIZE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW POP
UP SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE. COVERAGE SHOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED
SO HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANYTHING IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS/HICKMAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
514 PM EDT SUN MAR 18 2012

KYZ097>100-OHZ026-044>046-052>056-062>065-072>074-079>082-088-192115-
BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-
CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-
PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-
SCIOTO-
514 PM EDT SUN MAR 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>096-OHZ034-035-042-043-051-060-
061-070-071-077-078-192115-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-MIAMI-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-
BUTLER-WARREN-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-
514 PM EDT SUN MAR 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...MIAMI VALLEY OF
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE CHANCE FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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