Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
327 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
THE WAKE OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM ON SATURDAY. DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A PDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACRS THE REGION BETWEEN NOW AND 7/8 PM AS
PREFRONTAL TROF AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACRS THE AREA. SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE HIGHER THETA E AREA WILL
BE REALIZED. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL BE A BIG THREAT. ONCE COLD FRONT SWINGS BY AND DEEPENING SFC
LOW PUSHES INTO SRN LOWER MICHIGAN...SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST/WEST. MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOLS SUGGEST
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55 MPH ACRS OUR NORTH WITH 40 MPH TOWARD THE
OHIO RIVER. HAVE EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY TO INCLUDE MORE OF
EAST CENTRAL INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND CENTRAL OHIO. FAR NORTH
WILL BE BORDERLINE HIGH WIND WARNING AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR A
POSSIBLE UPGRADE IF SFC LOW DEEPENS MORE THAN EXPECTED. WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET OVERNIGHT IN STRONG CAA WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 30S WEST TO THE MID 30S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
REGION WILL BE A DRY SLOT AREA IN THE WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED
STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM ON SATURDAY...WHICH RESULTS IN WEAK SFC
RIDGING. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY EARLY ON...BUT
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND CAA WILL INCREASE STRATOCUMULUS/CUMULUS
CLOUDS FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER
ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO THE UPPER
40S SE.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...A BROAD MID LVL TROF WILL
DIG SE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. EMBEDDED
PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THIS TROF WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REGION. BEST CHANCE APPEARS ACRS NRN ZONES SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND SOUTH OF THE SRN ZONES ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL BE COLDER AND EVEN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY
MARCH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE MID 30S NORTH TO
NEAR 40 SOUTH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY BECOME ESTABLISHED ON TUESDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES RISING BACK ABOVE NORMAL. ALL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. BUT THERE
ARE CONSIDERABLE DISCREPANCIES ON TIMING. 12Z GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE
MEAN ARE QUITE A BIT QUICKER AND EVEN THE 12Z ECMWF HAS SPED UP
ALTHOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE GFS SUITE. HAVE BROUGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTION ALONG THE WRMFNT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. THIS CONVECTION
WILL LIFT N AS THE WRMFNT DOES. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE
SUB-SEVERE.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG
CDFNT...WHICH WILL MOVE THRU THE TAFS BETWEEN 21-02Z. THIS LINE
COULD BE SEVERE. CURRENTLY HAVE WINDS GUSTING TO 30KT...BUT THEY
COULD BE HIGHER IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. AS THIS
OCCURS...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KT...GUSTING UP TO 35 KT. A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW
FOR WINDS TO SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT AFT 06Z.

SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BEHIND CONVECTION. CAA SC WILL BEGIN TO WORK
TOWARDS THE FA SATURDAY MORNING....BUT CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED
UNTIL AFTER 18Z AT CVG.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074.
KY...NONE.
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-066.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SITES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
222 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

INZ050-058-059-066-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-
031930-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-
222 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
AS IT DOES...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FAVORABLE WIND
FIELDS WITHIN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RESULT IN ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
BEING THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
LATER FORECASTS ON THIS CHANGEABLE WEATHER SITUATION.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD ACTIVATE AND REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

INZ073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ077>082-088-031930-
RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-
CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HAMILTON-
CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
222 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTHWEST
OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
AS IT DOES...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FAVORABLE WIND
FIELDS WITHIN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RESULT IN ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
BEING THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
LATER FORECASTS ON THIS CHANGEABLE WEATHER SITUATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD ACTIVATE AND REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

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