Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1007 AM EST TUE JAN 17 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A   CHANCE OF SNOW WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. THESE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH A FAIRLY SHARP CUT OFF. COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW A
FEW HOURS AFTER THE PRECIPITATION ENDS WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
LATE IN THE DAY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
WRAPPING BACK INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. AND IF ANYTHING OCCURS THERE IT SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW SHOWERS ALTHOUGH THOSE WOULD BE LIGHT. WIND GUSTS WILL PICK
UP WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE AS WELL AS
TRENDS UPSTREAM SUGGEST THAT GUSTINESS MAY BE A LITTLE LESS THAN
EARLIER FORECAST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. COULD
BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.
BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT CLOUDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE RESPITE ON WEDNESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY. COOL AMBIENT CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO FALL AS SNOW. MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WITH THIS SYSTEM...ASIDE FROM SOME NON-DIURNAL TWEAKS TO
THE TEMPERATURE CURVES. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE FOR THIS
SYSTEM TO WORK WITH...SO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
FRIDAY AND PUSH ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
ABLE TO TAP INTO SOME BETTER MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. THE 12Z GFS
REMAINS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM COMPARED TO THE 12Z
ECMWF...AND WILL TREND THE FORECAST SOMEWHAT THAT WAY GIVEN FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW. EITHER WAY THOUGH...IT LOOKS LIKE BEST
CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH ITS SOMEWHAT SLOWER
SOLUTION...THE ECMWF IS BRINGING SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM WHICH WOULD LEAD TO MORE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM.
MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS INDICATING MORE SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL GENERALLY KEEP PCPN AS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO DRYING CONDITIONS AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE
PLAINS WILL PUSH INTO THE RIDGE BY MONDAY WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MAIN THUNDER IMPACTS
WILL BE IN THE CINCINNATI AREA THROUGH 17Z. BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED STORM ELSEWHERE. CONVECTIVE LINE WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF
REDUCTION TO IFR CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION THERE WILL BE A TEMPORARY
WIND SHIFT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE TAF SITES A BIT FASTER THAN
EARLIER EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS BETWEEN THE SHOWERS
ENDING AND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. DURING THIS TIME WINDS
WILL START TO VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH SOME MINOR GUSTS. THERE
WILL BE PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATER IN THE DAY WITH SOLID MVFR CEILINGS PROBABLY DROPPING BELOW
2000 FT AND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE
UPPER REACHES OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE IN THE CAA WILL CAUSE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TO
LINGER...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VFR CATEGORY AT THIS
TIME. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NW AND DIMINISH BY MORNING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
440 AM EST TUE JAN 17 2012

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-180945-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
440 AM EST TUE JAN 17 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST.
WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE BOTH IN AND OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO
45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

WHILE DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF A
MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

HATZOS

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