Severe Thunderstorm Warning 227, NWS Wilmington, OH

327 
WWUS51 KILN 272214
SVSILN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
614 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

OHC025-272224-
/O.CAN.KILN.SV.W.0227.000000T0000Z-120727T2230Z/
CLERMONT OH-
614 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN CLERMONT COUNTY HAS
BEEN CANCELLED...

PLEASE REPORT PREVIOUS WIND DAMAGE OR HAIL TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772.

LAT...LON 3903 8402 3925 8399 3923 8383 3922 8383
      3923 8381 3919 8356 3902 8358 3902 8366
      3902 8367 3894 8369
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 285DEG 27KT 3909 8382

$$

OHC015-071-272230-
/O.CON.KILN.SV.W.0227.000000T0000Z-120727T2230Z/
BROWN OH-HIGHLAND OH-
614 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN HIGHLAND AND NORTHERN BROWN COUNTIES...

AT 612 PM EDT...RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
BUFORD...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SARDINIA.

IN ADDITION...MOWRYSTOWN...STATE ROUTE 32 AT US ROUTE 62...NEW
MARKET...STATE ROUTE 136 AT US ROUTE 62 AND FINCASTLE ARE NEAR THE
PATH OF THIS STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3903 8402 3925 8399 3923 8383 3922 8383
      3923 8381 3919 8356 3902 8358 3902 8366
      3902 8367 3894 8369
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 285DEG 27KT 3909 8382

$$

003 
WWUS51 KILN 272225
SVSILN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
625 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

OHC015-071-272235-
/O.EXP.KILN.SV.W.0227.000000T0000Z-120727T2230Z/
BROWN OH-HIGHLAND OH-
625 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN HIGHLAND AND
NORTHERN BROWN COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 630 PM EDT...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...THEREFORE THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PLEASE REPORT PREVIOUS WIND DAMAGE OR HAIL TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772.

LAT...LON 3903 8402 3925 8399 3923 8383 3922 8383
      3923 8381 3919 8356 3902 8358 3902 8366
      3902 8367 3894 8369
TIME...MOT...LOC 2225Z 285DEG 27KT 3907 8372

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
451 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING DOWN INTO SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. THE AIRMASS OUT AHEAD OF THIS IS NOT AS UNSTABLE AS WE
HAVE BEEN SEEING THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT FORCING ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH ML CAPES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG HAVE BEEN
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO
PUSH EAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT WORKING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DEEP LAYER 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL REMAIN IN THE
20-30 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT BOTH THE 0-1 KM
AND 0-3 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE
LOW MOVES OUR WAY. HOWEVER...AS WE MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WE
WILL BEGIN TO LOSE SOME OF THE INSTABILITY...SO WOULD EXPECT BEST
SEVERE CHANCE TO BE ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE THE BEST. THE DCAPE IS STILL RELATIVE
HIGH...IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...SO DAMAGING
WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. AS WE
BEGIN TO LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT AN OVERALL DECREASING
TREND IN THE STORMS. HOWEVER...THEY MAY LINGER A LITTLE LONGER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTH...UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...UNTIL THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE
TOUGH TO RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST WHERE SOME WEAK INSTABILITIES
WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SKIES SHOULD THEN CLEAR
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN.
WILL TREND HIGHS A TAD COOLER ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY AS WE
SHOULD START TO GET INTO A LITTLE BIT OF WEAK CAA.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH WNW FLOW ALOFT.
LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO TURN BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST...SO SOME
90 DEGREE READINGS MAY SNEAK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST...BUT HUMIDITY
WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE. 00Z ECMWF WAS THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE
EXCLUDED ITS QPF IN THE FORECAST.

A GRADUAL PATTERN CHANGE TAKES PLACE NEXT WEEK AS TELECONNECTIONS
FROM THE NORTHERN LATITUDES HELP GRADUALLY DEEPEN THE EAST COAST
TROUGH AND PUSH THE DOMINANT PLAINS RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE WEST. A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE
INTERMITTENT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. TRACK AND TIMING IS OBVIOUSLY
AN ISSUE IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO HONE INTO
THE LATE MONDAY TO LATE TUESDAY TIME FRAME FOR A SFC COLD FRONT TO
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE 40 POPS SPREADING EAST THROUGH THIS
TIME...THEN DROPPING SLIGHTLY FOR THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY PERIOD.
WITH LITTLE TEMPERATURE ADVECTION DURING MOST OF THE WEEK...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. BY FRIDAY...BOTH THE 00Z AND 12Z ECMWF FLATTEN
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN SOMEWHAT...ALLOWING WARMER TEMPERATURES
TO SURGE EAST. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THIS SOLUTION...VERSUS THE
STRONGER LONGWAVE TROUGH NOTED BY THE GFS. LOWERED POPS TO 20
PERCENT FRIDAY GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL PIVOT SE ACRS THE REMAINDER OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL SLOWLY PUSH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THE
APPROACH OF THIS DISTURBANCE AND PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACRS
THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTN. MODELS SUGGEST THAT MULTICELLULAR
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONGEAL INTO BOWING SEGMENTS WITH POSSIBLE TWO
ROUND OF CONVECTION MOVING OVER THE REGION. AS SUCH...BELIEVE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT ALL TAF SITES.
HOWEVER...EXACT TIMING IS STILL DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT AND HAVE
THUS GONE WITH A PREDOMINANT VCTS WITH TEMPO MVFR AND THUNDER.
WILL AMENDMENT TAFS ACCORDINGLY FOR WIND AND/OR HAIL PER RADAR
OBSERVATIONS.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR
STORM OVERNIGHT WITH THE DISTURBANCE STILL IN THE REGION...BUT
CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION ATTM. OF GREATER CONCERN
WILL BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING SOUTH AROUND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE/COLD FRONT. THIS MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION...HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REALIZE ITSELF AS A STRATUS DECK
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SOME MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL AND HOW LOW THESE BECOME WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST
MID LVL CLOUDS EXIT THE REGION BEFORE LOW STRATUS FORMS. HAVE GONE
WITH IFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS ATTM.

ON SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT INTO VFR
CUMULUS AND/OR MODERATE CUMULUS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE VSBYS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AS WELL. CAN NOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR
STORM ACRS THE ERN TAF SITES...BUT THEN AGAIN...IT IS TOO LOW TO
BE CONCERNED ABOUT ATTM.

UNDER A NW FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ079>082-088.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ098>100.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...HICKMAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
500 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>097-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077-078-282100-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-
DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-
MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-
CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-
500 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...CENTRAL
OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO TONIGHT. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. LARGE HAIL WILL BE A SECONDARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

KYZ098>100-OHZ079>082-088-282100-
ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
500 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO TONIGHT. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE ACROSS THE SAME
LOCATION. AREAS THAT HAD HEAVY RAIN LAST NIGHT WILL BE
PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING
IF HEAVY RAIN OCCURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
515 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

INZ058-059-066-272145-
UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-FAYETTE IN-
515 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN FAYETTE...FRANKLIN AND
SOUTHERN UNION COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM EDT...

AT 513 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
ANDERSONVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...BROOKVILLE.

ALSO...ANDERSONVILLE...BUENA VISTA...HAMBURG...COLUMBIA...LAUREL...
ALPINE...PEPPERTOWN AND NULLTOWN ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3963 8484 3944 8484 3933 8490 3937 8530
      3958 8531

HATZOS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
516 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0514 PM     TSTM WND DMG     OAKBROOK                39.00N 84.69W
07/27/2012                   BOONE              KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN.

&&

MIKEG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
525 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

INZ073-074-272200-
DEARBORN IN-RIPLEY IN-
525 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL RIPLEY AND WESTERN
DEARBORN COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM EDT...

AT 521 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
NAPOLEON...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...OSGOOD...VERSAILLES...
MILAN...MOORES HILL AND DILLSBORO.

ALSO...VERSAILLES LAKE...SUNMAN...WEISBURG...COLD SPRINGS...NEW
ALSACE...MANCHESTER AND MOUNT SINAI ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3925 8534 3928 8528 3923 8493 3911 8493
      3898 8507 3902 8537 3912 8545

HATZOS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
531 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     HEAVY RAIN       BURLINGTON              39.02N 84.72W
07/27/2012  M1.70 INCH       BOONE              KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FELL IN ABOUT 20 MINUTES.

&&

KURZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
531 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

KYZ093-OHZ071-072-077>080-272200-
CAMPBELL KY-BROWN OH-CLINTON OH-HAMILTON OH-WARREN OH-CLERMONT OH-
HIGHLAND OH-
531 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN HIGHLAND...
CLERMONT...SOUTHEASTERN WARREN...SOUTHEASTERN HAMILTON...SOUTHWESTERN
CLINTON...NORTHWESTERN BROWN AND CAMPBELL COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM
EDT...

AT 530 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM MORROW TO PERINTOWN TO MELBOURNE...MOVING EAST
SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...WITHAMSVILLE...
BATAVIA...NEW RICHMOND...AMELIA...BLANCHESTER...WILLIAMSBURG...
FAYETTEVILLE...ST. MARTIN...BETHEL...SARDINIA...MOUNT ORAB AND
LYNCHBURG.

ALSO...GOSHEN...WILLOWVILLE...PLEASANT PLAIN...BUTLERVILLE...NEW
PALESTINE...MIDDLEBORO...BLAIRSVILLE AND OWENSVILLE ARE NEAR THE PATH
OF THIS LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

WATER WILL POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

LAT...LON 3903 8449 3905 8450 3908 8450 3916 8435
      3939 8418 3928 8363 3901 8379 3880 8405

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
539 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0452 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NE AURORA             39.12N 84.83W
07/27/2012                   DEARBORN           IN   PUBLIC

            3 SEMI TRUCKS OVERTURNED ON I-275

&&

SNYDER