River Flood Advisory 1, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1229 AM EST FRI JAN 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTAINING COPIOUS MOISTURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
A PAIR OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES TRAVELING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WILL RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST OHIO WILL TRACK NEAR THE I-71 CORRIDOR
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MORNING BASED ON LATEST RUC/HRRR GUIDANCE.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL THUS FALL IN THIS CORRIDOR.
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DEFORMATION AREA OF PCPN ROTATING THROUGH
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
COLD FRONT AND MID LVL TROF. 00Z NAM-WRF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE
TRANSITION TIME FROM RAIN TO SNOW WHICH IS CRITICAL IN TERMS OF
HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL. HAVE TRIMMED BACK SNOW AMOUNTS SOME...NOW
GOING LESS THAN AN INCH FROM CARROLLTON...TO CVG...TO ILN...TO
CMH AND POINTS NW TO WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE NON DIURNAL BUT SHOULD BOTTOM OUT
INTO THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE MID UPPER 30S FAR SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
PCPN WILL BE EXITING THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING AS MID LVL TROF
PULLS AWAY. ANY LINGERING SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD COME TO AN
END BY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH AT BEST. AM CONCERNED THAT POST FRONTAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE SLOW TO CLEAR AND HAVE SIDED WITH A SLOWER
CLEARING TREND OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION
FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE BRIEF AS DIGGING S/WV ENERGY WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH
QUICKLY SLIDES TO THE EAST. S/WV WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS FOR RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE
FORECAST AREA STARTING IN THE WEST TOWARD SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING
AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. ATTM...A QUICK INCH OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR NRN
ZONES WITH A HALF INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE. AIRMASS WILL QUICKLY DRY
OUT DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A CLEARING TREND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NON DIURNAL BUT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY EVENING AND WILL THEN MOVE QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT AS A DIGGING UPR TROF APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NW.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL AS A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
ENTERING THE NW ZONES TOWARD MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH NON
DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BEGIN WITH THE CWA NEAR THE BASE OF A RATHER LARGE UPPER
TROUGH...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO MOVING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE OF SNOW...PRIMARILY IN THE NORTH...AS
THIS FEATURE PASSES. WITH THE DOME OF COLDEST AIR OVER THE REGION
FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT THE COLDEST OF
THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

AS THE TROUGHING TURNS TO RIDGING ALOFT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE DEEP SOUTH ON MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL
FLOW TO TURN SOUTHERLY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY YET AGAIN. ENERGY PUSHING IN FROM THE PACIFIC WILL SPUR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE FOR THE REGION...AND
SIGNIFICANT DISCONTINUITIES REMAIN IN THE MODEL DEPICTIONS OF THIS
PART OF THE PATTERN. WHAT IS CERTAIN IS THAT EVENTUALLY...A SURFACE
LOW WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PLACE
THE CWA WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR...CAUSING PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM TO FALL SOLELY AS RAIN. DEPENDING ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
WARM AIR...THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT THIS HAS NOT
BEEN EXPLICITLY FORECAST AS OF YET.

AT SOME POINT BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE REGION. THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. AS MENTIONED...TIMING IS STILL IN
QUESTION WITH THIS SYSTEM. A HIGHER POP FORECAST WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR THIS TIME FRAME...ONCE THE DETAILS ARE A LITTLE MORE
CLEAR.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE HIGHLY DIVERGENT AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LEAVING LITTLE TO NO CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE EASTERN TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ACROSS ALL OF OUR TERMINALS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. VSBYS WILL TEMPORARILY IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
...WINDS WILL PICK UP FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. VSBYS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OFF TO OUR WEST IN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA THAT
WILL SPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA. THESE IFR VSBYS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. IN
ADDITION...AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
CHANGEOVER OF LIGHT RAIN TO LIGHT SNOW. THE CURRENT TIMING OF THIS
CHANGEOVER APPEARS TO BE AROUND SUNRISE.

CIGS SHOULD LIFT...AND VSBYS WILL IMPROVE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
AS THE COLD AIR SCOURS OUT THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET OF THE
ATMOSPHERE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SNOW ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...LATTO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1233 AM EST FRI JAN 27 2012

INZ050-058-059-066-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>054-060>062-280545-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-PREBLE-
MONTGOMERY-GREENE-
1233 AM EST FRI JAN 27 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO
AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AN INCH OR LESS
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY
SURFACES.

IN ADDITION...AREA STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA
DUE TO THE RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

INZ073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ055-056-063>065-070>074-077>082-088-
280545-
RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-
CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-
CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-
SCIOTO-
1233 AM EST FRI JAN 27 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO
AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

AREA STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA
DUE TO THE RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1023 PM EST THU JAN 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0957 PM     HEAVY RAIN       GLENDALE                39.27N 84.46W
01/26/2012  M1.58 INCH       HAMILTON           OH   PUBLIC

            1.58 STORM TOTAL, 1.52 SINCE MIDNIGHT. RELAYED BY MEDIA.

&&

SNYDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1129 PM EST THU JAN 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1122 PM     FLOOD            4 SE SPRINGFIELD        39.88N 83.74W
01/26/2012                   CLARK              OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            8-12 INCHES OF WATER FLOWING ACROSS MITCHELL ROAD FROM
            ONE FIELD TO ANOTHER. THIS LOCATION TYPICALLY FLOODS
            DURING HEAVY RAIN.

&&

SNYDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1206 AM EST FRI JAN 27 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SSE WILMINGTON        39.42N 83.81W
01/27/2012  M1.66 INCH       CLINTON            OH   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            24 HOUR TOTAL

&&

SNYDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1212 AM EST FRI JAN 27 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 W ROCKBRIDGE          39.58N 82.60W
01/27/2012  M1.32 INCH       HOCKING            OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR TOTAL

&&

SNYDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1229 AM EST FRI JAN 27 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NW SPRINGFIELD        39.94N 83.81W
01/27/2012  M1.78 INCH       CLARK              OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL

&&

SNYDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1251 AM EST FRI JAN 27 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1227 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 NNW GROVE CITY        39.93N 83.12W
01/27/2012  M1.80 INCH       FRANKLIN           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL

1100 PM     FLOOD            SEVEN MILE              39.48N 84.55W
01/26/2012                   BUTLER             OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MODERATE STREET FLOODING

1241 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 ENE OSGOOD            39.15N 85.24W
01/27/2012  M2.00 INCH       RIPLEY             IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL

&&

SNYDER