Heat Advisory 10, NWS Wilmington, OH

Dearborn County, IN, Franklin County, IN, Ohio County, IN, Ripley County, IN, Switzerland County, IN, Boone County, KY, Bracken County, KY, Campbell County, KY, Carroll County, KY, Gallatin County, KY, Grant County, KY, Kenton County, KY, Lewis County, KY, Mason County, KY, Owen County, KY, Pendleton County, KY, Robertson County, KY, Adams County, OH, Brown County, OH, Butler County, OH, Clermont County, OH, Scioto County, OH, Warren County, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
151 AM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE SE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY. THE FRONT AND THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXITED THE SOUTHEAST CWA WHILE MORE ARE
ENTERING THE WEST CENTRAL AND WHITEWATER VALLEYS THIS LATE
EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT THESE STORMS TO PACK ANY OF THE PUNCH THAT
THE DAYTIME STORMS EXHIBITED AS THE ATMOSPHERE IT IS MOVING INTO
HAS BEEN WORKED OVER THERMALLY AND THE STORMS WILL HAVE A HARD
TIME PROPAGATING TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE COOLER SURFACE AIR.

INCREASED THE CHANCES FOR THESE STORMS AND THE ONES OVER NORTHWEST
OHIO TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF CWA BY LATER OVERNIGHT.

LOWERED TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH WHERE READINGS ARE ALREADY
TOUCHING WHAT WE HAD IN AS OVERNIGHT LOWS. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE
LOW 70S CURRENTLY FOUND TO HOLD SWAY OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY MIX
READINGS UPWARDS WITH SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
MORE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT
DROPS SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COLD ADVECTION
AND CLOUDS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOOKS LIKE IT
MAY BE BORDERLINE FOR A HEAT ADVISORY IN THE SW ONLY ON THURSDAY
AND DO NOT EXPECT TO ISSUE HEAT ADVISORY FOR ELSEWHERE. THE
OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL NEED TO LOOK CLOSELY AT WHETHER A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S
EXCEPT LOWER 90S SOUTH.

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT SINKS FURTHER SOUTH IN THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS FAIRLY GOOD...WITH
SMALL SPREADS IN GFS ENSEMBLE PLOTS EVEN THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE THE CONTINUED DOMINANCE OF A CENTRAL
US RIDGE...WITH VARYING EFFECTS ON THE OHIO VALLEY.

A SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AS
FRIDAY BEGINS...WITH THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION FOCUSED IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
THROUGH THE DAY BEHIND THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...LEADING INTO DRY
CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE RIDGE
WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF...LEADING TO WARMING TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS
IN THE 90S AGAIN BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

BEYOND MONDAY...THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN SLIGHTLY...ALLOWING THE CWA
TO ENTER A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WITH OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES MOVING
FROM THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. WHILE THESE FEATURES WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BRING SOME
PERIODS OF CONVECTION TO THE REGION...THESE INDIVIDUAL DETAILS ARE
DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT CORRECTLY THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. SO...SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WILL BE USED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST A
SLIGHT REDUCTION IN TEMPERATURES EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IN THE WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS...MU CAPES ARE STILL AROUND 1000
J/KG ACRS THE WESTERN PORTION OF ILN/S FA. HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACRS THE WESTERN TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING AS
SOME WEAKENING OF THE STORMS TO OUR WEST IS EXPECTED AS THEY DROP
SE INTO ILNS FA. HAVE CONTD VFR CIGS WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS
DUE TO BR AT ALL TAF SITES IN THE MOIST AIRMASS.

MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION WITH
SIGNIFICANT S/W DROPPING THRU THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND OHIO
VALLEY OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC WAVE TO DEVELOP SE INTO OHIO
TONIGHT. EXPECT AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MODERATELY UNSTBL AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. THEREFORE HAVE A
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT A THREAT FOR
STORMS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH THE SFC WAVE RIPPLING THRU AND THE
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SETTLING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THIS TIME
HAVE A MENTION OF VCTS THRU THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PARKER
NEAR TERM...FRANKS/PARKER
SHORT TERM...PARKER
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...AR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
901 AM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060-062>065-070>074-078>082-088-191315-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-
BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-
PIKE-SCIOTO-
901 AM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TODAY. ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON THURSDAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

OHZ061-077-191315-
MONTGOMERY-HAMILTON-
901 AM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO AND
SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TODAY. ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON THURSDAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.