Excessive Heat Warning 5, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
749 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES TRAVELING ALONG A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A VERY WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WEATHER REGIME WILL
RESULT IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WHILE THE PERIOD OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSISTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT DEVELOPED IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IS
MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 443 IS IN EFFECT THERE UNTIL 8 PM. WENT WITH CAT POPS IN THE
WATCH AREA. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED SOUTHEAST OF THE WATCH AREA SO SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP
OUTSIDE OF THE CURRENT WATCH.

AFTER WIDESPREAD CONVECTION MOVES EAST AND DIMINISHES WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...THERE WILL STILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AROUND 70 FOR
LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY PARALLEL TO THE
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ON
MONDAY. WITH MODELS INDICATING LOWER INSTABILITY...PERHAPS THE
CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DIMINISHED COMPARED TO
SUNDAY.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LINGER WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 9OS AND HEAT
INDICES 100. ISSUED AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR DAYTON AND
CINCINNATI WITH A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE AREA EXCEPT
FAR NORTH AND EAST COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION
PLACING THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND ITS PERIPHERY IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THRU THURSDAY. THE MID RIDGE
BUILDS A LTL EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLD PRECIP DURG THIS PERIOD
DUE TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND BUILDING CAP IN THE FORM OF
WARM AIR ALOFT HAVE KEPT THE REGION DRY. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING FURTHER EAST AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT/THICKNESS RISES HAVE
INDICATED A RETURN TO THE EXTREME HEAT WITH HIGHS AROUND 100.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
INTO NEXT MONDAY.

HAVE TRENDED HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN MEX GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REGION WILL REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THIS FLOW FROM
TIME TO TIME AND WILL CONTINUE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TIMING OF SUCH SYSTEMS CONTINUE
TO BE PROBLEMATIC AND ATTM CONVECTION WILL FAVOR THE DIURNAL
CYCLE...I.E. AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE OF
THE TIMING OF THUNDERSTOMRS...HAVE ONLY PLACED VCSH AT THE TAF
SITES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENT CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BE OUT OF
THE TAF SITES WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS. CAN NOT RULE A THUNDERSTORM
OVERNIGHT...BUT CHANCES LOOK SMALL ATTM.

RECENT RAINFALL AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES MAY BRING SOME FOG ISSUES.
AT THIS POINT HAVE GONE WITH SOME IFR VSBYS AT FAVORED KLUK AND
WILL DEFER PLACING FOG IN THE TAFS UNTIL THE NEXT SHIFT OR IF IT
BECOMES APPARENT IT IS NEEDED WITH AMENDMENTS.

MESO HIGH IN WAKE OF CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST TO 25 KNOTS FROM KCMH TO KCVG. WINDS
WILL SETTLE DOWN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ042-051>055-
     060-062>064-070>073-078>082-088.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR OHZ042-051>055-
     060-062>064-070>073-078>082-088.
     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ061-
     077.
     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR OHZ061-
     077.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
707 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

INZ050-058-059-OHZ042-051>053-060-062-022315-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-DARKE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-PREBLE-GREENE-
707 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL INDIANA AND
MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OHZ026-034-035-043-044-022315-
HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-SHELBY-LOGAN-
707 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO AND WEST
CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE CHANCE FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

INZ066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ054-055-063-064-070>073-078>082-088-
022315-
FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-
KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-
MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-
CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
707 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 448 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO
AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OHZ045-046-056-065-074-022315-
UNION OH-DELAWARE-LICKING-FAIRFIELD-HOCKING-
707 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 446 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OHZ077-022315-
HAMILTON-
707 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 448 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OHZ061-022315-
MONTGOMERY-
707 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.