Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
705 EDT SUN AUG 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS A
DISTURBANCE OVER THE GULF STATES TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK...AS THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED
OVER THE CAROLINAS. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST AND PUSHES THE FRONT OUT TO SEA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 632 AM SUNDAY...ONBOARD SATELLITE-DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER
SENSORS SHOW ENHANCED COLUMN MOISTURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT-WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS GEORGIA AND FAR
WESTERN NC. AS THIS IMPULSE PUSHES NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLC INTERIOR LATER TODAY...SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST. ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...WITH LIKELY POP
VALUES MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
MAINLY ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

A GOOD SHOT OF RAINFALL IN THE CARDS TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...AS A SHORT-WAVE PRESENTLY
RIPPING ACROSS GEORGIA TRACKS NE ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE CAROLINAS. PRESENTLY A LULL IN ACTIVITY
UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THE APPROACHING
IMPULSE IS VOYAGING AT A GOOD CLIP AND SUSPECT A MIX OF STRATIFORM
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION WILL INFRINGE AND BEAR DOWN ON OUR FAR
WESTERN INTERIOR SOMETIME IN THE LATE MORNING.

IT IS FEASIBLE AS DEPICTED IN HPC QPF FORECASTS THAT THE BEST AXIS
OF RAINFALL WILL FALL ALONG OR JUST WEST OF OUR ZONES COINCIDENT
WITH POSITIONING OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ENOUGH VIGOR
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE HOWEVER TO SEND A SQUALL-TYPE BAND
OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. EXTENSIVE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
AND OVERALL WE EXPECT MAINLY RAIN WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF THUNDER.
THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE WAVE COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS EVEN IN
SHOWERS HOWEVER.

CLOUDS AND RAIN-COOLED AIR SPREADING SW TO NE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPS HELD IN THE MID 80S OVER
MOST AREAS TODAY. OPTED FOR THE WARMER SIDE OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...WITH LINGERING AND STREAMING CLOUDS
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE WEST AND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LINGERS NEAR OR OVER THE AREA.  EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND
LOWS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEATHER WILL TRANSITION TOWARD A DRIER REGIME DURING THE PERIOD AS
THE COLD FRONT NEAR THE AREA SLOWLY MOVES OUT TO SEA AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD.  CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DECREASE EACH DAY...FALLING FROM THE CHANCE CATEGORY WEDNESDAY TO
ISOLATED BY THE WEEKEND.  MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OF MID TO UPPER 80S
ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FIRST WAVE OF CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL JUST MISS OUR WESTERN TERMINALS THIS
MORNING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE WAVE AFTER WAVE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSIVELY MOVING EASTWARD OVER TIME.
VISIBILITIES COULD BRIEFLY LOWER TO IFR IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...BUT
SHOULD BE MVFR FOR THE MOST PART. LOOK FOR THE ACTIVITY TO COMMENCE
OVER THE WESTERN TERMINALS BY 14-16Z...REACHING THE COAST BY 18Z.
THE BACK END OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST WILL BE SCRUTINIZE ON THE NEXT
MODEL RUN...AND WILL LIKELY BE MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN CURRENTLY
PORTRAYED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
TEMPO MVFR/IFR THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 632 AM SUNDAY...MODERATE SW WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AS A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HOLDS INLAND. AN IMPULSE TRACKING ALONG THIS FRONT
WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE WATERS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BECAUSE OF THE SPEED OF THIS
IMPULSE GUSTY WINDS OUGHT TO BE EXPECTED EVEN IN SHOWERS. MARINERS
ARE URGED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SKY AND SEEK OUT RADAR TRENDS IF
POSSIBLE BEFORE HEADING OUT...ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY. SEA SPECTRUM
WILL BE DOMINATED BY WAVES WITH 5-6 SECOND INTERVALS...MAINLY SSW
WAVES 2-4 FT AND HIGHEST OFFSHORE. VERY WEAK SE SWELL WILL ALSO BE
IN THE MIX BUT NEARLY UNSEEN OR NOT NOTICEABLE GIVEN THE STRONGER
LOCALLY GENERATED SOUTHERLY WAVES.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  INITIALLY...WINDS WILL BE FROM THE W-NW MONDAY MORNING
BUT BACK TO SW BY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  SEAS
OF 3 FT OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR
POTENTIAL 4 FT SEAS FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS FROM 06Z TO 18Z TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WEDNESDAY WILL BECOME
W-NW AT 10 KT OR LESS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  A WEAK GRADIENT LOOKS TO BE
IN PLACE THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY OUT TO SEA AND HIGH
PRESSURE OOZES IN FROM THE WEST.  EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN THE HIGH BETTER ASSERTS ITSELF WITH NW
WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS.  SEAS OF 3 FT OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

NEAR TERM...8
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...31
AVIATION...43

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
414 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2012

NCZ087-096-099-105>110-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056-200815-
ROBESON-BLADEN-COLUMBUS-INLAND PENDER-COASTAL PENDER-
INLAND NEW HANOVER-COASTAL NEW HANOVER-INLAND BRUNSWICK-
COASTAL BRUNSWICK-MARLBORO-DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-MARION-
WILLIAMSBURG-INLAND HORRY-COASTAL HORRY-INLAND GEORGETOWN-
COASTAL GEORGETOWN-
414 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

AMZ250-252-254-256-200815-
SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM-
CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM-
414 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ON THE WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

8

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
738 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2012

NCZ107>110-191245-
COASTAL BRUNSWICK-COASTAL NEW HANOVER-INLAND BRUNSWICK-INLAND NEW
HANOVER-
738 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS BRUNSWICK AND NEW HANOVER
COUNTIES THROUGH 845 AM EDT...

AT 738 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
VARNAMTOWN...OR ABOUT 7 MILES EAST OF SHALLOTTE...MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE CAROLINA BEACH...BOILING SPRING
LAKES...CIVIE TOWN...LONG BEACH...MILL CREEK...MYRTLE GROVE...OAK
ISLAND...SILVER LAKE...SOUTHPORT...SUPPLY...BOLIVIA AND HOLDEN BEACH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

THUNDERSTORMS CAN POSE A VARIETY OF THREATS INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS...
SMALL HAIL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT
IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.

&&

LAT...LON 3393 7793 3390 7810 3391 7813 3390 7833
      3403 7838 3419 7791 3408 7786
TIME...MOT...LOC 1138Z 251DEG 21KT 3396 7824

REK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
927 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2012

SCZ017-191430-
MARLBORO-
927 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS MARLBORO COUNTY THROUGH
1030 AM EDT...

AT 927 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
CHAVISTOWN...OR ABOUT 6 MILES WEST OF BENNETTSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT
30 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BENNETTSVILLE...CHAVISTOWN...CLIO...
DUNBAR...MCCOLL...WALLACE AND TATUM.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

THUNDERSTORMS CAN POSE A VARIETY OF THREATS INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS...
SMALL HAIL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT
IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.

&&

LAT...LON 3481 7967 3472 7956 3461 7946 3453 7951
      3452 7983 3460 7981 3462 7978 3465 7982
      3468 7986 3475 7990 3477 7994 3480 7994
      3481 7993
TIME...MOT...LOC 1327Z 263DEG 27KT 3465 7977

REK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1013 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2012

NCZ087-191515-
ROBESON-
1013 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS ROBESON COUNTY THROUGH 1115
AM EDT...

AT 1013 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES NORTHWEST OF RAEMON...OR ABOUT 7 MILES SOUTH OF LAURINBURG...
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE LUMBERTON...RED SPRINGS...ALMA...
BARKER TEN MILE...BUIE...ELROD...HESTERTOWN...HOWELLSVILLE...
MAXTON...PEMBROKE...PURVIS AND RAEMON.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.

HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

THUNDERSTORMS CAN POSE A VARIETY OF THREATS INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS...
SMALL HAIL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT
IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.

&&

LAT...LON 3488 7892 3457 7889 3458 7940 3463 7946
      3477 7934 3482 7936 3483 7935 3484 7933
      3484 7919 3488 7914
TIME...MOT...LOC 1413Z 268DEG 29KT 3467 7941

REK