Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
243 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
TYPICAL SUMMER TIME WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INLAND PRODUCING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
LOCALIZED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. A BUILDING RIDGE
ALOFT WILL BRING A WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...THE SEA BREEZE WILL REMAIN PINNED VERY NEAR
THE COAST THROUGH THIS EVE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...SITUATED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH THIS EVE. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WHICH WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM
STRENGTH AND INCREASE COVERAGE. A WEAK...VIRTUALLY STATIONARY
FRONT... WILL REMAIN WELL N OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...FROM HARTSVILLE TO DILLON TO
WHITEVILLE TO BURGAW. IN THESE AREAS...EXPECT AT LEAST NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY THIS EVE.

THE RISK FOR CONVECTION SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY LOWER AS YOU MOVE SOUTH
OF THIS AREA AS DRIER AIR TO OUR S AND SE GETS DRAWN NORTHWARD AND
CIN VALUES POINT TO CONVECTION HAVING A MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TIME
DEVELOPING/SUSTAINING ANY DEPTH DUE TO SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ALOFT.
THUS...WILL TAPER POPS DOWN TO LOW CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE AS YOU MOVE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PEE DEE...GRAND STRAND...WINYAH BAY
AND LOWER CAPE FEAR COAST WITH PERHAPS ONLY A SPRINKLE FAR SOUTHERN
AREAS THROUGH THIS EVE.

INSTABILITY IS RESPECTABLE...UP TO 2000-2500 J/KG LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS RATHER LOW...ALTHOUGH
AN ISOLATED WET-MICROBURST CAN NOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO PRECIPITATION
LOADING. A VERY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND EVENT IS THUS POSSIBLE AND
HAIL CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.

BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY COOL AND STABILIZE AFTER
SUNSET. STABILIZATION SHOULD ALLOW ANY ONGOING CONVECTION AFTER DARK
TO COME TO AN END BEFORE MIDNIGHT. PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS AND MODEST LOW LEVEL JETTING SHOULD HELP KEEP MINIMUMS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH UPPER 70S MOST COMMON AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH REMAIN TWO
DOMINANT SURFACE FEATURES CONTROLLING COASTAL CAROLINAS WEATHER.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SW SFC FLOW VEERING AROUND TO MORE WESTERLY
THROUGH THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. 850 TO 700 MB WINDS WILL BE 15 TO
25 KTS SUN AFTN INCREASING UP TO 20 TO 30 KTS MON AFTN AS THEY
VEER TOWARD THE NW. MID TO UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH
NORTHEAST AS RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM EAST AND WEST EXPANDING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANY SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOPPING
THE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO NORTH OF LOCAL CWA. H5 HEIGHTS WILL
RISE UP TO 595 DEM AND WILL SEE INCREASED BUT WEAKER SUBSIDENCE
AND DRIER AIR THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. WITH BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
TO THE NORTH AND STRONG WESTERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW...EXPECT
MORE LOCALIZED CONVECTION ALONG CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES TYPICAL OF
SUMMERTIME...WITH BETTER CHC OVER NC. SEA BREEZE SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
CLOSE TO THE COAST WITH STRONGER WESTERLY COMPONENT TO
FLOW...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. THEREFORE ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS
ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST AND WILL
MOVE RAPIDLY OFF TO THE EAST TOWARD THE WATERS. ALSO EXPECT OTHER
SHWRS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP ALONG PIEDMONT TROUGH FURTHER INLAND AND
MOVE EAST TOWARD THE COAST. MOISTURE PROFILES DO SHOW VERY MOIST
UPPER LEVELS WITH WINDS ABOVE H4 HAVING GOOD NW-N COMPONENT.
THEREFORE EXPECT PERIODS OF CIRRUS...MAINLY FROM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION UPSTREAM. THIS SHOULD FILTER OUT SOME OF
THE SUN.

WITH RISING H5 HEIGHTS AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WESTERLY COMPONENT TO
THE FLOW...EXPECT WARM SUMMERTIME TEMPS RUNNING BETWEEN 90 AND 95
MOST PLACES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A RETURN TO HOT AND HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...WITH ABOVE CLIMO PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH
LATE WEEK.

LARGE ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEBRASKA SOUTHEAST INTO
FLORIDA WILL GET GRADUALLY PUSHED SOUTHWARD AS A LARGE UPPER LOW
ACROSS CANADA SHEARS OFF AND DROPS VORT IMPULSES INTO A BROAD
EASTERN LONGWAVE TROUGH. AS THIS OCCURS...W/NW FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE COLUMN ABOVE THE IMMEDIATE SURFACE. AT THE
SURFACE...LARGE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE GETS SHUNTED SOUTH AS
WELL...BUT NEAR SURFACE S/SW FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE COMBINATION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...850MB TEMPS AROUND
20C...AND MOIST RETURN SURFACE FLOW WILL CREATE DECENT CONVECTION
CHANCES EACH DAY...WITH WIDESPREAD COVERAGE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY. AN ACTIVE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL OCCUR
EACH DAY...ALTHOUGH WITH THE DEEP W/NW FLOW THE SEA BREEZE WILL
REMAIN PINNED NEAR THE COAST. PWATS OF TWO INCHES OR GREATER AND
HIGH THETA-E AIR COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SUBTLE VORT IMPULSES WILL SPAWN CONVECTION EACH AFTN...BUT MOST
ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY FORCED AND WILL KEEP INHERITED
CHC-BY-DAY...SILENT-BY-NIGHT POP. THE BEST TSTM COVERAGE WILL BE
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL TRY TO DROP SOUTH INTO
THE ILM CWA. EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO GET HUNG UP JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA...BUT THIS WILL STILL SERVE AS AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION DURING WED/WED NIGHT. OVERALL POP WILL TREND DOWNWARD
LATE IN THE PERIOD AS 500MB RIDGE BUILDS BACK TO THE NORTH.
HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SCHC POP (SILENT BY DAY 6/7) FOR ISOLATED TSTMS
IN A STILL VERY WARM/MOIST AIR MASS.

850MB TEMPS AROUND 20C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S MOST
DAYS EVEN WITH THE LIMITING IMPACT OF CLOUD COVER. MINS AT NIGHT
WILL FALL ONLY INTO THE MID 70S...NEAR 80 SOME NIGHTS AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY AT THE INLAND TAF SITES. IF A THUNDERSTORM DOES DEVELOP
IN THE AREA CEILING AND VISIBILITY COULD DROP TO MVFR TO IFR RANGE
FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. AT THIS TIME...DO TO THE LACK OF
CONFIDENCE...WILL PUT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY THROUGH 02Z.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...VFR IS EXPECTED. MVFR IS POSSIBLE FROM BR
TOWARDS DAYBREAK AT THE INLAND ZONES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...THE TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE NEARLY PINNED
SEA BREEZE IS NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS THE PAST FEW DAYS AND
CONSEQUENTLY...EITHER ARE THE WINDS. A MODEST NOCTURNAL JET WILL
KEEP WINDS ELEVATED THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT STILL THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVE...15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
SEAS WILL ALSO BE TRENDING DOWNWARD...AS HIGH AS 3 TO 4 FT THIS
EVE...THEN LOWERING BY ABOUT A FOOT INTO SUN MORNING.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN
BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST AND PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER INLAND
CAROLINAS. NAM SHOWING DECENT LOW LEVEL JETTING BOTH SUN AND MON
NIGHT BUT STRONGER MON NIGHT AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE UP TO 25 TO
30 KTS. OVERALL EXPECT SFC WINDS AROUND 15 KTS SUNDAY INCREASING
UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS ON MONDAY AND VEERING SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE
W-SW. EACH AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE ON SHORE AND
GUSTIER CLOSE TO THE COAST AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. WNA SHOWING
LONGER PERIOD UP TO 10 SECOND SWELLS MIXING WITH LOCALLY DRIVEN
WIND WAVES TO PRODUCE SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. SHOULD REACH UP TO 4 TO 5 FT
IN OUTER WATERS MON NIGHT IN STRONGER W-SW WINDS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WITH PERSISTENT SW RETURN FLOW DOMINATING THE SYNOPTIC
WIND. SW WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WILL OCCUR ON BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...EASING TO AROUND 10 KTS AND VEERING TO SLIGHTLY MORE
W/SW BY THURSDAY AS A BACK DOOR TYPE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. THESE SW WINDS WILL KEEP A 4-5FT/5SEC SW WIND WAVE ONGOING
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH AMPLITUDE WILL DECAY SLIGHTLY ON
THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE PERSISTENT FLOW AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL KEEP A SE GROUND SWELL PRESENT
WITHIN THE WAVE SPECTRUM. SWELL INITIALLY OF 2FT/9SEC WILL BECOME
2FT/13 SEC BY THURSDAY. SEAS OF 3-5 FT TUESDAY WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE...BECOMING 2-3 FT THURSDAY THANKS TO EASING WINDS AND THE
LONGER PERIOD SWELL DECAYING MORE QUICKLY DUE TO OCEAN BOTTOM
FRICTION.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RJD/DRH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1206 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

NCZ087-096-099-105-107-109-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053-055-221615-
ROBESON-BLADEN-COLUMBUS-INLAND PENDER-INLAND NEW HANOVER-
INLAND BRUNSWICK-MARLBORO-DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-MARION-
WILLIAMSBURG-INLAND HORRY-INLAND GEORGETOWN-
1206 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ106-108-110-SCZ054-056-221615-
COASTAL PENDER-COASTAL NEW HANOVER-COASTAL BRUNSWICK-COASTAL HORRY-
COASTAL GEORGETOWN-
1206 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AMZ250-252-254-256-221615-
SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM-
CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM-
1206 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

RJD

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