Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
738 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING AREAS
OF HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DELIVER DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE INLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
MAINTAIN TYPICAL JULY WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...PRIMARY NEAR-TERM NATURAL HAZARD THREATS
ARE LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM A JUICED-UP ATMOSPHERE AND PROSPECTS OF
A POTENTIAL TSTM WATCH BOX THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR PULSE TYPE
CONVECTION ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS.

TORRENTIAL RAINS AND TRAINING CELLS WERE SOAKING GEORGETOWN COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH RURAL AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AS SLOW MOVING
TSTMS IN A MOISTURE-RICH COLUMN BUILD SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. A FLOOD
ADVISORY WAS EFFECTIVE FOR THIS AREA THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...AND
MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO A WARNING SOON IF STORMS PERSIST IN THIS
LOCAL AREA.

WILL SUSTAIN LIKELY TO SCATTERED POP VALUES THIS EVENING AND THEN
OVERNIGHT RESPECTIVELY...MAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT LOCALIZED FLOODING.
LOOKS TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOL/DRIER AT DAYBREAK COMPARED TO THE LAST
SEVERAL EARLY MORNINGS...PRIMARILY 70-74 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL PERSIST EACH
DAY HOWEVER COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS SCATTERED AS IT HAS
BEEN IN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE WESTWARD BUILDING MID/UPPER RIDGE.
REGARDLESS...STILL EXPECT MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER AROUND 1.8 TO 2 INCHES THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER COULD BE
DOWN TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL SE NC FRIDAY IMPLYING EVEN
LESS COVERAGE IN STORMS THERE...WHILE THEY REMAIN UP ACROSS THE
LBT...FLO AND MYR ZONES. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S THURSDAY WILL
TREND UP TO THE UPPER 80S ON FRIDAY AS HEIGHTS INCREASE FROM THE
BUILDING MID/UPPER RIDGE FROM THE EAST. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
RIGHT AROUND CLIMO EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER TIME WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MID TO UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FROM
THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CENTER ALMOST DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE WITH MID LEVELS
DRYING OUT ABOVE 850 MB AND THEREFORE WOULD EXPECT THIS TO SUPPRESS
VERY DEEP CONVECTION...BUT EXPECT AFTERNOON CU BUILD UP AND SHALLOW
CONVECTION ALONG CONVERGENT SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY OR PIEDMONT TROUGH
INLAND. BERMUDA RIDGE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT FEATURE AT THE SURFACE
WITH WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS. GFS
HINTING AT TROPICAL WAVE LIKE FEATURE MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE BASE
OF THE RIDGE TOWARD THE FL/GA COAST BY MONDAY. THIS MAY INCREASE
MOISTURE ADVECTION TOWARD THE CAROLINAS

AS RIDGE BUILDS IN H5 HEIGHTS PEAK AROUND 594 LATE SAT INTO SUN
WHILE 850 TEMPS MAKE A SLOWLY RISE FROM AROUND 17C SAT UP TO NEAR
20C BY LATE TUES. OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT MORE DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WINDS DO NOT
DEVELOP UNTIL MON INTO TUES. THEREFORE WILL KEEP TEMPS BASICALLY
AROUND 90 IN THE AFTERNOONS WITH GREATER WARM UP BY MON THROUGH
WED...WITH TEMPS REACHING MID 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE
70S IN A WARM AND HUMID SUMMERTIME AIR MASS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT DUE TO
ISOLATED/SCATTERED ONGOING CONVECTION/HEAVY DOWNPOURS THIS
EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT AND FOG/STRATUS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR...WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST ON TAP INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CONTINUE TO FUEL SLOW-MOVING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFFECTING THE NC TERMINALS -
KLBT/KILM. GIVEN CURRENT GUIDANCE...ANTICIPATE LINGERING SHOWERS
THROUGH THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN DIFFERENT BOUNDARIES AND
ONSET OF FROPA...WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY VARIABLE AOB 5 KTS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN ABUNDANT RAINFALL AND LIGHT
WINDS...ANTICIPATE MVFR FOG...POSSIBLY IFR AT INLAND
SITES/ESPECIALLY KLBT/...WITH LOW CIGS DUE TO STRATUS POSSIBLE BY
EARLY MORNING. EXPECT ANY LINGERING FOG TO CLEAR OUT BY
MORNING..WITH GUIDANCE DEPICTING CIGS AROUND 2500-3000FT FOR MOST OF
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA ANTICIPATED THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AOB 10 KTS AND GUSTS POSSIBLE IN ANY STORM. ANTICIPATE STORMS
TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...MAIN THREAT FOR MARINERS THROUGH TONIGHT
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TSTMS MOVING FROM LAND OVER THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS. CLOUD TO SEA LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...FAVORED LATE AFTN AND OVERNIGHT.
OUTSIDE OF TSTMS LIGHT TO MODERATE SSW WINDS AND MAINLY 2 FOOT SEAS.
SEAS A MIX OF LIGHT S CHOP AND WEAK SE WAVES 1-2 FOOT IN 8-10 SECOND
INTERVALS. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL HOLD AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND LIKELY
CLOSER TO 10 KT. MARINERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO SEEK OUT RADAR TRENDS
BEFORE VENTURING OFFSHORE. MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED
OVERNIGHT...IN SHORE AND OFFSHORE.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO BECOME SITUATED OFF THE
MID-ATLC COAST WITH LOWER PRESSURE INLAND WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10
KT WITH SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT EACH AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST AS A RESULT
OF THE SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL BE AROUND 3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH SEAS A LITTLE LOWER CLOSER TO THE COAST.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL BUILD WESTWARD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE EXPECT A SOUTHEAST FLOW
SATURDAY BACKING AROUND BECOMING MORE S TO SW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL SPEEDS SHOULD BE AROUND 10 KTS WITH SLIGHT RISE IN THE
AFTERNOONS IN SEA BREEZE. THIS PERSISTENT SE-S PUSH SHOULD KEEP SEAS
AROUND 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WNA SHOWS LONGER PERIOD 9 TO 10
SECOND E-SE SWELL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL