Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
731 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
WEDNESDAY BEFORE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING DRIER AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2:00 PM TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AS A
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT. SEA BREEZE CONVECTION
HAS FIRED AND SPC MESO-ANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES
NEAR 2000 J/KG INLAND. SHOULD SEE CONVECTION FIRE SHORTLY IN THESE
AREAS AS HEATING CONTINUES. GFS HAS BACKED OFF THE POPS INLAND FOR
OVERNIGHT BUT THE NAM AND HRRR CONTINUE TO BE QUITE AGGRESSIVE.
BACKED OFF POPS SLIGHTLY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LIKELY
VALUES MAXIMIZED AROUND 0000 UTC ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES WITH
CHANCE ELSEWHERE. LATEST SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK HAS NOT CHANGED FROM
EARLIER VERSIONS. FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WITH THE TROPICAL AIRMASS
IN PLACE CONTINUED TO GO WARMER THAN GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2:00 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. AIR MASS WILL REMAIN JUICY AND WARM AND AT LEAST
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...WITH DEW POINTS WELL IN THE 60S AND P/W
VALUES OF AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF. FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE
AROUND DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY.

LATEST GUIDANCE HINTS AT FRONT LINGERING JUST OFFSHORE INTO THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER WEAKNESS LINGERS OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS. THIS WILL KEEP IN THE POSSIBILITY OF
CONVECTION ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO KEEP IN DEEP MOISTURE FOR MUCH OF THAT DAY.
HAVE RAMPED UP POPS FOR THURSDAY AS A RESULT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...THERE ARE TWO GUIDANCE CAMPS FOR THE
EXTENDED. THE GFS/CMC DEVELOP ELONGATED RIDGING ACROSS THE OH VLY
WITH A BAGGY TROUGH PERSISTING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO
FLORIDA...WHILE THE ECMWF STILL DEVELOPS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ABOVE A HYBRID SURFACE CYCLONE. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF
HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS FOR SEVERAL RUNS...WEAKER BLOCKING UPSTREAM
COMBINED WITH THE VERY SIMILAR GFS/CMC AND OVERALL DRIER FORECAST
PROFILES SUGGEST MUCH LESS CHANCE OF HYBRID CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.
STILL...SOME LOWERED HEIGHTS TROUGHING BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
SUGGEST THAT THE GFS IS NOT GIVING UP ON THIS SOLUTION
ENTIRELY...AND EVEN SO...WOULD NOT JUMP EXCLUSIVELY ON THE CMC/GFS
BANDWAGON SINCE THIS MARKS A LARGE DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS
SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
THANKS TO SURFACE RIDGING PERSISTING FROM THE NORTH...AND THE NOW
EXPECTED DRY/STABLE LAYERS ABOVE THE SURFACE.

WITH NE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...TEMPS WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND
CLIMO FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS...EVEN AS THICKNESSES BEGIN TO RETURN
TO MORE SUBTROPICAL LEVELS. SOME PRECIP MAY AGAIN APPROACH THE
REGION MONDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP POP OUT OF THE FORECAST 7 DAYS
OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...AT FLO OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO THERE IS MODERATE
CONFIDENCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS/TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT
THE TERMINAL. THE REMAINING TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN THUNDERSTORM
FREE.

AT CRE/MYR THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LOW MVFR/IFR CEILINGS THIS
EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO ANY SUSTAINED PERIOD OF CEILINGS.
AFTER MIDNIGHT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES IN BR AT
FLO/LBT. AS LONG AS CLOUD COVER REMAINS BROKEN IFR POTENTIAL
SHOULD REMAIN LOW. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RE-DEVELOP OVERNIGHT NEAR FLO AND MOVE TO NEAR
LBT BY SUNRISE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SO WILL JUST INDICATE TEMPO SHRA AND RE-EVALUATE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL ON THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE.

WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND THE SEA BREEZE EXPECT A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. TEMPO
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE USED CONTINUITY FOR
ACTIVITY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS/TEMPO MVFR. VFR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2:00 PM TUESDAY...SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE WEST AND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST. WILL PROBABLY SEE A SIMILAR PATTERN OF WINDS BACKING OFF A
COUPLE OF KNOTS LATE TONIGHT TO NEAR TEN KNOTS AS THE GRADIENT
DECREASES SLIGHTLY. SEAS REMAIN CONSISTENT AS WELL WITH 2-4 FEET.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2:00 PM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY...MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS ON
THURSDAY MORNING. SLACK GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND
SOUTHERLY UNTIL THEN...MAINLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...WITH SEAS
IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE. WINDS WILL SHIFT NE ON
THURSDAY...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS LATE OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL
BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3:00 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST
WILL KEEP MODERATE-TO-STRONG NE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS OF
15-20 KTS...WITH ONLY MINOR DIURNAL VARIATIONS...WILL OCCUR THROUGH
SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH A WEAK SE SWELL WILL PERSIST...THE SIGNIFICANT
WAVES WILL BE A NE WIND CHOP OF 5FT/5SEC WHICH BUILDS SEAS TO 4-5 FT
FRIDAY...WITH 6 FT SEAS DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY. CAUTIONARY HEADLINES
ARE LIKELY FRIDAY...WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND.
ONCE AGAIN...THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT SHADOW REGION SW OF FRYING
PAN SHOALS...WHERE SEAS WILL PERSIST AT ONLY 1-3 FT IN THE INNER 10
NM OF AMZ252 AND AMZ254.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...REK/JDW/SHK

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
501 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0557 PM     DOWNBURST        4 SW LONGS              33.90N  78.78W
05/14/2012  E 70 MPH         HORRY              SC   NWS STORM SURVEY

            DOWNBURST DAMAGE...EIGHT 8 INCH PINE TREES SNAPPED WITH
            NUMEROUS LIMBS SNAPPED. DAMAGE AREA 0.8 MILES BY 40 YARDS
            WIDE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ILM1200104

DRH/RGZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

SCZ017-152145-
MARLBORO-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS MARLBORO COUNTY THROUGH 545
PM EDT...

AT 506 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
CHAVISTOWN...OR ABOUT 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHERAW...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 15 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BENNETTSVILLE...CHAVISTOWN...
MCCOLL...WALLACE AND TATUM.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HALF INCH DIAMETER SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS CAN POSE A VARIETY OF THREATS INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS...
SMALL HAIL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT
IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA.

&&

LAT...LON 3481 7967 3467 7950 3452 7983 3455 7983
      3458 7981 3460 7981 3462 7978 3465 7982
      3465 7983 3468 7986 3471 7989 3481 7974
TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 236DEG 15KT 3464 7980

BACON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
708 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

NCZ087-160015-
ROBESON-
708 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS ROBESON COUNTY THROUGH 815
PM EDT...

AT 708 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
RAEMON...OR ABOUT 8 MILES SOUTH OF LAURINBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
15 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE RED SPRINGS...ALMA...BUIE...MAXTON...
RAEMON...SEVEN BRIDGES...SHANNON...WAKULLA AND RENNERT.

THUNDERSTORMS CAN POSE A VARIETY OF THREATS INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS...
SMALL HAIL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT
IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA.

&&

LAT...LON 3480 7900 3457 7939 3463 7946 3477 7934
      3482 7936 3484 7934 3484 7919 3490 7911
TIME...MOT...LOC 2308Z 235DEG 11KT 3466 7940

BACON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
739 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

SCZ017-023-024-160045-
DARLINGTON-DILLON-MARLBORO-
739 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS DILLON...MARLBORO AND
DARLINGTON COUNTIES THROUGH 845 PM EDT...

AT 739 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
MECHANICSVILLE...OR ABOUT 11 MILES EAST OF DARLINGTON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BINGHAM...BROWNSVILLE...CLIO...
DUNBAR...HAMER...LITTLE ROCK...MECHANICSVILLE...MINTURN...OAK GROVE
AND SOUTH OF THE BORDER.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS CAN POSE A VARIETY OF THREATS INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS...
SMALL HAIL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT
IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA.

&&

LAT...LON 3455 7936 3449 7929 3428 7959 3430 7962
      3430 7963 3431 7967 3429 7969 3434 7977
      3467 7953
TIME...MOT...LOC 2339Z 220DEG 12KT 3434 7966

BACON

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