Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
142 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
WEDNESDAY BEFORE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING DRIER AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2:00 PM TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AS A
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT. SEA BREEZE CONVECTION
HAS FIRED AND SPC MESO-ANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES
NEAR 2000 J/KG INLAND. SHOULD SEE CONVECTION FIRE SHORTLY IN THESE
AREAS AS HEATING CONTINUES. GFS HAS BACKED OFF THE POPS INLAND FOR
OVERNIGHT BUT THE NAM AND HRRR CONTINUE TO BE QUITE AGGRESSIVE.
BACKED OFF POPS SLIGHTLY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LIKELY
VALUES MAXIMIZED AROUND 0000 UTC ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES WITH
CHANCE ELSEWHERE. LATEST SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK HAS NOT CHANGED FROM
EARLIER VERSIONS. FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WITH THE TROPICAL AIRMASS
IN PLACE CONTINUED TO GO WARMER THAN GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2:00 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. AIR MASS WILL REMAIN JUICY AND WARM AND AT LEAST
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...WITH DEW POINTS WELL IN THE 60S AND P/W
VALUES OF AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF. FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE
AROUND DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY.

LATEST GUIDANCE HINTS AT FRONT LINGERING JUST OFFSHORE INTO THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER WEAKNESS LINGERS OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS. THIS WILL KEEP IN THE POSSIBILITY OF
CONVECTION ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO KEEP IN DEEP MOISTURE FOR MUCH OF THAT DAY.
HAVE RAMPED UP POPS FOR THURSDAY AS A RESULT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...THERE ARE TWO GUIDANCE CAMPS FOR THE
EXTENDED. THE GFS/CMC DEVELOP ELONGATED RIDGING ACROSS THE OH VLY
WITH A BAGGY TROUGH PERSISTING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO
FLORIDA...WHILE THE ECMWF STILL DEVELOPS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ABOVE A HYBRID SURFACE CYCLONE. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF
HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS FOR SEVERAL RUNS...WEAKER BLOCKING UPSTREAM
COMBINED WITH THE VERY SIMILAR GFS/CMC AND OVERALL DRIER FORECAST
PROFILES SUGGEST MUCH LESS CHANCE OF HYBRID CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.
STILL...SOME LOWERED HEIGHTS TROUGHING BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
SUGGEST THAT THE GFS IS NOT GIVING UP ON THIS SOLUTION
ENTIRELY...AND EVEN SO...WOULD NOT JUMP EXCLUSIVELY ON THE CMC/GFS
BANDWAGON SINCE THIS MARKS A LARGE DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS
SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
THANKS TO SURFACE RIDGING PERSISTING FROM THE NORTH...AND THE NOW
EXPECTED DRY/STABLE LAYERS ABOVE THE SURFACE.

WITH NE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...TEMPS WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND
CLIMO FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS...EVEN AS THICKNESSES BEGIN TO RETURN
TO MORE SUBTROPICAL LEVELS. SOME PRECIP MAY AGAIN APPROACH THE
REGION MONDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP POP OUT OF THE FORECAST 7 DAYS
OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A DRY PUNCH ALOFT TO KEEP STORMS
FROM BEING NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE TWO MAIN
AREAS...ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY EARLY...MAINLY OVER NORTH
CAROLINA...AND ALONG A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CWA TOWARDS EVENING.
THE AREA WEST WILL PROBABLY HAVE THE STRONGEST STORMS.
OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION WILL STILL BE ONGOING AND WILL LIKELY NOT DIE
OUT UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND EVEN THEN WE MAY GET ISOLATED
ACTIVITY REACHING THE COAST. STRATUS/FOG WILL COME INTO THE PICTURE
AGAIN WITH ALL THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE. WEDNESDAY...SLOW
IMPROVEMENT IN THE CEILINGS...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION LIKELY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS/TEMPO MVFR. VFR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2:00 PM TUESDAY...SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE WEST AND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST. WILL PROBABLY SEE A SIMILAR PATTERN OF WINDS BACKING OFF A
COUPLE OF KNOTS LATE TONIGHT TO NEAR TEN KNOTS AS THE GRADIENT
DECREASES SLIGHTLY. SEAS REMAIN CONSISTENT AS WELL WITH 2-4 FEET.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2:00 PM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY...MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS ON
THURSDAY MORNING. SLACK GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND
SOUTHERLY UNTIL THEN...MAINLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...WITH SEAS
IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE. WINDS WILL SHIFT NE ON
THURSDAY...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS LATE OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL
BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3:00 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST
WILL KEEP MODERATE-TO-STRONG NE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS OF
15-20 KTS...WITH ONLY MINOR DIURNAL VARIATIONS...WILL OCCUR THROUGH
SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH A WEAK SE SWELL WILL PERSIST...THE SIGNIFICANT
WAVES WILL BE A NE WIND CHOP OF 5FT/5SEC WHICH BUILDS SEAS TO 4-5 FT
FRIDAY...WITH 6 FT SEAS DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY. CAUTIONARY HEADLINES
ARE LIKELY FRIDAY...WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND.
ONCE AGAIN...THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT SHADOW REGION SW OF FRYING
PAN SHOALS...WHERE SEAS WILL PERSIST AT ONLY 1-3 FT IN THE INNER 10
NM OF AMZ252 AND AMZ254.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...REK/JDW/SHK

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
433 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

NCZ087-096-152130-
BLADEN-ROBESON-
433 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS BLADEN AND ROBESON COUNTIES
THROUGH 530 PM EDT...

AT 433 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
BLADENBORO...OR ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LUMBERTON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE ELIZABETHTOWN...AMMON...BLADENBORO...
DUART...HOWELLSVILLE...JEROME...RUSKIN...SMITHS...TOLARSVILLE...WHITE
OAK...DUBLIN AND TAR HEEL.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA.

&&

LAT...LON 3475 7839 3450 7876 3465 7896 3486 7881
      3485 7852 3486 7850
TIME...MOT...LOC 2033Z 226DEG 17KT 3458 7884

BACON