Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
245 PM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...MAY BRING A FEW STRONG
OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MUCH DRIER
AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THURSDAY...HOLDING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL SLIP OFF THE COAST LATE SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE NEXT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...SUB-SEVERE SQUALL LINE NOW TRAVELING ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CAROLINAS MAKING POPS RELATIVELY EASY TO TIME.
DEVELOPMENT OF SHALLOWER CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS LINE/ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE HAS BEEN SCANT SO FAR AND ALTHOUGH TOUGH TO RULE OUT
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AT BEST. ALTHOUGH THE LINE HAS REMAINED
SUB-SEVERE IT WILL ENCOUNTER SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND FIELDS AND
INSTABILITY AS IT TRANSLATES EASTWARD. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT A WARNING OR TWO FOR LOW END SEVERE WIND IS
POSSIBLE...CAE'S RADAR WAS SAMPLING SOME VERY LOW LEVEL WINDS IN
THE 30-40 KT RANGE BELOW 1KFT. SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT/GUSTINESS ADDED
TO TSTMS ASSOC WITH THE ACTUAL SQUALL LINE. SOME WEAK ROTATION HAS
ALSO BEEN INDICATED...SUGGESTING THAT WIND FIELDS ARE
STRENGTHENING....HOPEFULLY NOT MORE THAN ANTICIPATED THOUGH. POPS
SHOULD DROP PRECIPITOUSLY BEHIND SQUALL LINE BUT SOME VERY LIGHT
STRATIFORM RAIN COULD LINGER...BUT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD SOME
AGGRESSIVE DRY ADVECTION WILL BE IMPINGING UPON THE CWA FROM THE
W.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...BY THURSDAY DAYBREAK THE BULK OF COLUMN
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL RESIDE
OFFSHORE. STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING COUPLED WITH MODERATE
NORTH WINDS WILL ALREADY BE OVERSPREADING THE AREA. MAXIMUM TEMPS
THU MAINLY MID/UPPER 70S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE SC INTERIOR
APT TO REACH 80. MAINLY CLEAR UNDER LOW-LEVEL NORTH WIND FLOW THU
NIGHT SHOULD YIELD LOW/MID 50S INTO EARLY FRIDAY. NORTH FLOW WILL
ENDURE MUCH OF FRIDAY DELAYING A SIGNIFICANT DAYTIME WARMING TREND
WITH MAXIMUMS VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. UNDER IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING...UPPER 40S INLAND LOOKS PROBABLE WITH LOWER 50S ALONG THE
COASTAL ZONES...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD SAT
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SUN AS BROAD 5H TROUGH STARTS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. SAT INTO SUN LOOKS DRY BUT
WEAKENING INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND MOISTURE RETURN IN DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION SUN AFTERNOON.
INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE POP LOOKS GOOD AT THIS POINT. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH 5H TROUGH
AXIS TO THE WEST AND DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTING PLENTY OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. ANY PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL ENHANCE DIURNAL
CONVECTION MON AFTERNOON WHICH WARRANTS A SMALL POP INCREASE...NOW
LOW CHANCE. TUE/WED REMAINS UNCERTAIN WITH THE 12Z GFS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUNS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AGREES ON
WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH THEN MOVES
ACROSS NORTHERN FL AND UP THE SE COAST. SIGNIFICANT TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS...12Z CANADIAN...00Z ECMWF AND LACK
OF CONTINUITY BETWEEN THEIR RESPECTIVE RUNS IS KEEPING CONFIDENCE
LOW LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE MAIN ISSUE IS HOW THE GUIDANCE IS
HANDLING THE COLLAPSE OF THE UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST AND THE IMPACT
THIS HAS ON THE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A
CHANCE POP TUE/TUE NIGHT WHICH WILL EXTEND INTO WED AD MUCH OF THE
GUIDANCE...SAVE THE GFS...IS SUGGESTING A SLOWER/WETTER SOLUTION.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS
STARTING OUT SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO BUT ENDING UP NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 19Z...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLO/LBT TERMINALS
BETWEEN 19Z-22Z AND THE NORTH COASTAL TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY
EVENING. A FEW SEA- BREEZE SHOWERS WILL DOT GEORGETOWN AND HORRY
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE LIKELY AT FLO/LBT.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH IFR/SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE FLO/LBT TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AS INDICATED IN
TAFS. AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE MORE OF A
TEMPO NATURE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE MAY AFFECT THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
SINCE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ISOLATED AT BEST WILL ONLY INDICATE VCSH
IN TAFS...EXCEPT AT MYR WHERE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH STANDS THE
BEST CHANCE OF AFFECTING THAT TERMINAL. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY NEAR FLO/LBT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMINALS BUT
WITH LESS CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING WILL ONLY INDICATE TEMPO MVFR
CONDITIONS ATTM.

A 1-4 HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SHOWERS CAN EXPECTED
AFTER THE HEAVIEST THUNDERSTORMS END. SHORTLY AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH VFR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SKIES BECOMING SCATTERED. ALL
PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY 07Z. VFR WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE MORNING FOG/IFR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS MONDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...A PRONOUNCED WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR TONIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THIS IS OFTEN ASSOCIATED WITH A
DETERIORATION IN CONDITIONS AS WIND AND SEAS INCREASE IN THE
PRE-FRONTAL OR POST-FRONTAL REGIME. THIS BOUNDARY HOWEVER WILL NOT
PRESENT SUCH A SCENARIO AND AT WORSE WILL SHORTEN THE PREDOMINANT
PERIOD AS WIND CHOP TRIES TO ADJUST TO THE NEW DIRECTION. WNA
GUIDANCE INTRODUCING A 3 FT WIND WAVE.  A PREDOMINANT 2 TO 4 FT SET
OF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THEN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
IN THE VERY NEAR TERM/THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING 2 TO 3 FT APPROPRIATE.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT MAY BRING LIMITED VISIBILITIES
IN RAIN AND ISOLATED TSTMS...ALONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HIGHER WIND-WAVES TONIGHT. MARINERS SHOULD CONSULT RADAR
BEFORE HEADING OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
BRING A WIND-SHIFT IN THE VERY LATE EVENING AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS
COULD BRING N WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE
EASING IN THE AFTERNOON. REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUSTAIN N
WINDS THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY...WITH THE HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD FRIDAY
NIGHT. SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER PORTION AND THE
NORTH END OF FRYING PAN SHOALS THURSDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...WEAK GRADIENT SAT INTO SUN WILL KEEP WINDS
LIGHT AND HIGHLY VARIABLE. THERE WILL BE A GENERAL NORTHEAST TO
EAST FLOW WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS. GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE
MORE DEFINED SUN AS HIGH MOVES FARTHER OF THE COAST AND SOUTHEAST
FLOW DEVELOPS. SOME GUIDANCE HINTING AT WEAK COASTAL TROUGH ALONG
THE GA/SOUTHERN SC COAST WHICH MAY ENHANCE FLOW ACROSS SC ZONES.
HOWEVER SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 15 KT INTO MON. SURFACE HIGH
EAST OF THE WATERS AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES TO
THE WEST MEANS SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON MON. OVERALL LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE SURFACE GRADIENT BETWEEN SUN AND MON SO SPEEDS
SHOULD BE SIMILAR...10 TO 15 KT. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR/MBB

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