Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
228 PM EDT WED MAR 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER VIRGINIA WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE AREA PROVIDING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN BRIEFLY FRIDAY BEFORE GIVING
WAY TO ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A
LARGE CUT-OFF LOW OVER NORTHERN TEXAS AND A WEAKER UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER NORTHERN VIRGINIA. THE LOW OVER VIRGINIA CONTINUES TO SHIFT
SLOWLY SOUTH AND WILL PROVIDE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND
CONTINUE TO ADVECT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEAST
FLOW. THE 3KM RAPID REFRESH REFLECTIVITY IS STILL SHOWING THE
SCATTERED CONVECTION MOVING NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL AFTER DARK.

OVERNIGHT...SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES
HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF THE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT WITH THE UPPER LOW
MOVING TOWARD THE AREA...AND WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT ESPECIALLY INLAND.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR 60 INLAND AND LOWER
60S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2:25 PM WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA AT LEAST THURSDAY. A SUBTLE DEFORMATION
ZONE WILL KEEP ACTIVITY OFFSHORE EARLY TRANSLATING TO INLAND LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MUCH LIKE IS TAKING PLACE TODAY. THE
LOW GETS BOOTED OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM OUT WEST IS
FINALLY ON THE MOVE. STILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS VIA SEA BREEZE
BUT VALUES ARE LESS THAN THURSDAY. VIA PERSISTENCE...ADDED AREAS OF
FOG FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING. REGARDING
TEMPERATURES...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS CLOSE BUT RECENT VERIFICATION
NUMBERS LEAN TOWARD THE MAV AND GENERALLY USED THESE NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 2:25 PM WEDNESDAY...SIGNIFICANT PATTERN ANOMALIES CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FOR THE WKND. DRIER AIR AND
MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL TAKE HOLD FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK...BEFORE A WARMING TREND RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY.

STRONG UPPER RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY FINALLY BREAKS DOWN SATURDAY...AND ALL IT TAKES IS THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A -3 STANDARD DEVIATION UPPER LOW! THIS
LOW WILL BE IN THE OHIO VALLEY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND THEN
PUSH SOUTHEAST TO BE OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY AFTN...AND
OFFSHORE BY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC BENEATH THIS UPPER LOW WHICH THEN TRAILS A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM RAISES PWATS TO 1.5 INCHES...OR +2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS...WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE JUICE FOR POTENTIAL PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN. AT THE SAME TIME...IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
LOW AND THE APPROACH OF AN 80 KT UPPER JET WILL TAP THE HIGHER
THETA-E AIR SO EXPECT TSTMS MUCH OF SATURDAY AND HALF OF
SUNDAY...BEFORE DRYING OCCURS SUNDAY EVE. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL
OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL BUMP POP TO JUST BELOW
CATEGORICAL...WITH LIKELY POP BOOK-ENDING THAT PERIOD.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...DRIER NW FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE COLUMN AND UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO REBUILD ACROSS THE EAST. WILL CONTINUE SCHC POP
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS WEAK UPPER IMPULSES ROTATE AROUND
DEPARTING UPPER LOW...BUT LACK OF MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF RAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH
CREATES COOL NORTH FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE THIS HIGH DRIFTS
OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. EVEN WITH CLOUDS AND
RAIN DURING THE WKND...TEMPS RISE AT LEAST INTO THE MID 70S AWAY
FROM THE COAST...ALTHOUGH HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE MAXES. NEAR TO
JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO MON/TUE...REBOUNDING TO THE UPPER 70S BY
WEDNESDAY. MINS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. THIS IS RESULTING IN AT
LEAST VCSH AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS
WILL PUSH THE THE SEA BREEZE FURTHER INLAND...AND THE FOCUS OF
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT TO THE FLO/LBT TERMINALS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED INLAND WHICH WILL LEAD TO A
BETTER SHOT OF AT LEAST TEMPO SHOWERS AT FLO/LBT THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

EARLY THIS EVENING SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
FLO/LBT. WINDS COULD REMAIN VERY LIGHT SOUTHEAST AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS WELL INTO THE NIGHT. EXPECT THE BEST DENSE FOG POTENTIAL
TO BE AT THE FLO/LBT TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. THERE IS MODEL CONSENSUS
THAN MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS WILL INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT TO NO
LOWER THAN MVFR.

DENSE FOG SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR OR BETTER BY 13-14Z. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN AGAIN BE EXPECTED AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS WITH THE ACTIVITY SHIFTING FURTHER INLAND BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH TEMPO
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SATURDAY. VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 155 PM WEDNESDAY...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF AROUND 10 KNOTS IS
NOW ESTABLISHED OVER THE WATERS AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 3 AND 4 FEET AND THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2:25 PM WEDNESDAY...SUMMER LIKE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WATERS WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. SPEEDS OF
TEN KNOTS OR SO INCREASING WITH THE SEA BREEZE. DO NOTICE A SUBTLE
INCREASE IN WINDS LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM OUT
WEST INCHES CLOSER. SWAN SEAS ARE CONSISTENT IN A RANGE OF 2-4
FEET.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2:25 PM WEDNESDAY...PREFRONTAL REGIME SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
CREATES INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING WAVE HEIGHTS.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...CAUSING WINDS TO JUMP FROM AROUND 10 KTS SATURDAY
MORNING...TO 15-20 KTS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IN TURN FORCES WAVES
TO BUILD TO 5-6 FT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A SHORT DURATION SATURDAY
NIGHT. COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS BY SUNDAY EVE...AND WINDS
VEER RAPIDLY TO THE WEST THEN NORTH ON MONDAY. SPEEDS REMAIN AROUND
15 KTS BEFORE EASING LATE MONDAY TO 10 KTS. THIS OFFSHORE FLOW
PUSHES THE HIGHEST SEAS AWAY FROM THE COASTAL WATERS...SO WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL DIMINISH TO 3-4 FT BY SUNDAY EVE...AND PERSIST THERE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DRH
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
317 PM EDT WED MAR 21 2012

NCZ087-096-099-105>110-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056-221930-
ROBESON-BLADEN-COLUMBUS-INLAND PENDER-COASTAL PENDER-
INLAND NEW HANOVER-COASTAL NEW HANOVER-INLAND BRUNSWICK-
COASTAL BRUNSWICK-MARLBORO-DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-MARION-
WILLIAMSBURG-INLAND HORRY-COASTAL HORRY-INLAND GEORGETOWN-
COASTAL GEORGETOWN-
317 PM EDT WED MAR 21 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AMZ250-252-254-256-221930-
SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM-
CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM-
317 PM EDT WED MAR 21 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

7

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
517 PM EDT WED MAR 21 2012

NCZ087-212145-
ROBESON-
517 PM EDT WED MAR 21 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN ROBESON COUNTY
THROUGH 545 PM EDT...

AT 516 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
PEMBROKE...OR ABOUT 6 MILES SOUTH OF RED SPRINGS...DRIFTING NORTHWEST
AT 5 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE RED SPRINGS...ALMA...BUIE...MAXTON...
PEMBROKE...SEVEN BRIDGES...SHANNON AND WAKULLA.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...

PEA SIZED HAIL.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

THUNDERSTORMS CAN POSE A VARIETY OF THREATS INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS...
SMALL HAIL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT
IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.

&&

LAT...LON 3476 7907 3461 7918 3468 7942 3477 7934
      3482 7936 3484 7935 3484 7919 3488 7913
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 119DEG 3KT 3473 7922

WEISS