Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
325 PM CDT SAT AUG 25 2012

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY THERE IS A 500MB LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA...AND ANOTHER
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. A SMALLER H5 LOW IS CENTERED
RIGHT OVER NORTHERN KANSAS AND HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
LOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA. AHEAD OF THIS
LOW ISENTROPIC LIFTING/WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS THE SOURCE FOR MUCH
NEEDED RAINFALL OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT. REDEVELOPMENT
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IS SCATTERED BUT IS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT:

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORM IN SOUTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHEAST KANSAS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. LAPS ANALYSIS OF ML
CAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG AND LITTLE TO NO CIN SUPPORTS CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. THE MAIN AXIS OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE EVENING IS STILL FROM NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA...THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS ALONG THE
TURNPIKE AND FLINT HILLS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS IS THE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH RAIN RATES POSSIBLE HIGHER THAN AN INCH PER
HOUR UNDER THE HEAVIEST CORES. THE H5TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS SUBSIDENCE SETS IN. TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
STILL EXPECTED GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE WITH AREAS OF
3 OR MORE INCHES POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY:

ONLY CHANGE MADE WAS TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE VERY
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CWA SUNDAY EVENING AS THERE
SEEMS TO BE SOME EXTRA 850MB MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THIS REGION.
THIS WILL MAINLY BE FOR THE EARLY PORTIONS OF SUNDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY AS THE TROUGH EXITS.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALSO DECREASE MAKING FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT
IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

MONDAY-SATURDAY:

THE 500MB RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE ROCKIES AS THE
TROUGH ENTERS THE EASTERN CONUS AND INTERACTS WITH TROPICAL STORM
ISAAC. THE 12Z ECMWF IS NOW THE EASTERLY TRACK WITH ISAAC WHILE
THE GFS DEPICTS IT HEADING INTO MISSOURI BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS
IS FLIP FLOPPED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT IT STILL DOES NOT APPEAR
LIKELY THAT KANSAS WILL RECEIVE ANY REMNANTS FROM ISAAC. BY
THURSDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND NORTHEAST FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES AND WILL SUPPORT THE WARMING TREND
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S MONDAY-THURSDAY WILL
LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S EACH NIGHT.

LAUGEMAN

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
ALONG WITH LOWERING CIGS OVER CENTRAL KS TONIGHT.

THE UPPER WAVE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER CENTRAL KS WITH THE
SURFACE LOW STILL BACK OVER THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS HAS LEFT A VERY
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. A SECONDARY MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP FROM KTOP TO NEAR KSLN
TO NEAR KGBD. PRECIP SHOULD EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE IN THESE AREAS.
MEANWHILE ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE. THEREFORE EXPECTING AT
LEAST SOME SCT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH
AT LEAST 00Z WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE FROM NW TO SE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. KICT AND KCNU WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT TO EXPERIENCE STORMS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. LOOK FOR CIGS WITH THE STRONGER
SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE IN THE MVFR RANGE.

MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING IN SOME LOWER CIGS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT LIFTS OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT.
WILL THEREFORE GO AHEAD AND RUN WITH SOME IFR CIGS FOR BOTH KRSL AND
KSLN AFTER 06Z.

LAWSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 AM CDT SAT AUG 25 2012/

UPDATE...

PUT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO MAINLY DECREASE POPS.

THE LARGE AREA OF PRECIP THAT IS PUSHING INTO EASTERN KS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE 850-700MB LAYER.
BEHIND THIS LARGER AREA OF PRECIP...JUST SOME SCT SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD AFFECT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
THE START OF THE AFTERNOON. AS THE AFTERNOON HOURS PROGRESS COVERAGE
SHOULD START TO INCREASE FROM THE NW AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
SOUTH. SO WENT AHEAD AND DECREASED POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR
MOST OF THE AREA.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    68  87  67  88 /  90  20  10  10
HUTCHINSON      65  89  65  88 /  70  20   0  10
NEWTON          66  87  66  88 /  80  20  10  10
ELDORADO        67  84  66  87 /  90  20  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  84  70  89 /  80  30  10  10
RUSSELL         63  87  63  89 /  20  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      64  88  64  89 /  20  10   0   0
SALINA          66  88  64  89 /  50  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       65  88  64  88 /  70  20   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     72  81  71  87 /  90  60  20  10
CHANUTE         70  81  68  87 /  90  60  20  10
IOLA            71  81  69  87 /  90  60  20  10
PARSONS-KPPF    70  81  69  87 /  90  60  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
300 PM CDT SAT AUG 25 2012

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-260945-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
300 PM CDT SAT AUG 25 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA WITH LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE TURNPIKE EXPECTED TO SEE
THE BETTER SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE AFTER DARK. THE MORE INTENSE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL RATES IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH
PER HOUR RANGE. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE. DUE TO THE DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS
THE AREA. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
BY SUNDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE CURRENT DRY CONDITIONS AND THE FACT
THAT MOST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL OVER A PROLONGED
PERIOD...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

BILLINGS/LAWSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
211 PM CDT SAT AUG 25 2012

KSZ093-251945-
COWLEY-
211 PM CDT SAT AUG 25 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COWLEY COUNTY...

AT 209 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OXFORD...OR 8 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF WINFIELD...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE. BESIDES LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...THIS STORM MAY ALSO PRODUCE
BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUDS. THESE FUNNEL CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE THE
GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 3710 9715 3732 9715 3738 9706 3737 9691
      3717 9687 3709 9714
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 258DEG 18KT 3721 9707

LAWSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
348 PM CDT SAT AUG 25 2012

KSZ093-252115-
COWLEY-
348 PM CDT SAT AUG 25 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN COWLEY COUNTY...

AT 343 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF GEUDA SPRINGS...OR 9 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF WINFIELD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

TORRENTIAL RAIN CAUSING BRIEF FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IS LIKELY.

BESIDES LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...THIS STORM MAY ALSO PRODUCE BRIEF
FUNNEL CLOUDS. THESE FUNNEL CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE THE GROUND...
HOWEVER A VERY BRIEF TOUCHDOWN IS A REMOTE POSSIBILITY. IF SO...THEY
COULD RESULT IN MINOR WIND DAMAGE.

&&

LAT...LON 3708 9715 3710 9715 3711 9716 3712 9715
      3725 9714 3732 9693 3713 9684 3707 9715
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 237DEG 17KT 3717 9704

HOWERTON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
357 PM CDT SAT AUG 25 2012

KSZ053-252145-
CHASE-
357 PM CDT SAT AUG 25 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHASE COUNTY...

AT 353 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM COTTONWOOD FALLS TO
7 MILES NORTHEAST OF MATFIELD GREEN TO MATFIELD GREEN...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. LISTEN FOR
LATER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE FLOODING WARNINGS...SHOULD THE RISK FOR
MINOR LOW-LAND FLOODING BECOME MORE IMMINENT.

&&

LAT...LON 3852 9635 3812 9636 3810 9661 3835 9670
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 239DEG 23KT 3834 9657 3827 9648
          3815 9652

HOWERTON

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