Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
644 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2012

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SUGGEST ONLY KCNU WILL NEED VCTS OUT OF THE
BOX...AND SUSPECT COVERAGE WILL WANE RAPIDLY AROUND SUNSET.
OTHERWISE...TRICKY WINDS WITH SOME EVIDENCE OF GRAVITY WAVES SO
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT FLUCUATIONS IN WIND SPEEDS LIKELY FOR THE FIRST
FEW HOURS. SHORT TERM MODELS NOT HANDLING SURFACE WINDS VERY WELL
AND CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY OVER THE FIRST 6 HOURS. OTHERWISE
ENOUGH 850MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO SUGGEST A FEW
HIGH BASED CUMULUS WILL BE AROUND. -HOWERTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2012/

DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CHANCES OF CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST KS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING...AND OVERNIGHT.  THEN MORE SEASONAL
TEMPS FOR THU-SAT.

TONIGHT:
A WEAK SFC TROF CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS
TIME...WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO MOST OF CEN KS. MAIN CONCERN LATE
AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING WILL BE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS WEAK BOUNDARY
AND THE SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH INTO ERN NEB INTO NW MO. CONVERGENCE
APPEARS LIMITED ALONG THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY...BUT MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR IS POOLING JUST AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KS. AFTERNOON HEATING /APPROACHING THE CONVECTIVE TEMP/ AND
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH INTO NW MO MAY BE ENOUGH FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40KTS COMBINED WITH
1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE WOULD SUGGEST A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH AN INVERTED-V FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL.

NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE EXPECTED STORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE NORTH OF
SOUTHEASTERN KS...ACROSS NW MO/NERN KS. THIS CONVECTION WILL
PROBABLY FORM INTO A COMPLEX OF STORMS LATER THIS EVENING...AND DIVE
SOUTH ACROSS WRN MO/ERN KS LATE TONIGHT. SOME THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS FROM THIS SYSTEM AS WELL...AS IT MOVES SOUTH. SO SOUTHEAST KS
COULD SEE AN EARLY ROUND OF STORMS THAN POSSIBLY GET CLIPPED BY A
LATE ROUND OF CONVECTION.  SO WILL LEAVE POPS IN THIS AREA THRU THE
NIGHT.

THU-SAT:
MOST OF THE SHOWER CHANCES WILL PUSH WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY THU
AM...AS THE SFC BOUNDARY PUSHES WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA BY
12Z/THU...AS THE 850H FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO COOLER/
DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE AREA FOR THU THROUGH SAT.  THIS WILL LEAD
TO TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS...AROUND 90 FOR MAXES AND
POSSIBLY SEEING LOW TEMPS DROP INTO THE UPPER 50/LOW 60S BY FRI
MORNING...AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ON FRI.

SAT NIGHT-SUN:
WARM ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAIN FOR SAT
NIGHT. BUT DRY LOW LAYERS WILL ONLY MEAN INCREASED MID LAYER CLOUD
COVER FOR PORTIONS OF CEN KS.  BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING A
POSSIBLE MCS MAY DEVELOP IN THE HIGH PLAINS OF WRN NEB LATE SAT
NIGHT...WITH THIS SYSTEM DROPPING SE TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA BY
SUN AM BUT MOISTURE RETURN FOR THIS CHANCE LOOKS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME.

BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA FOR SUN AFTN/EVE. MOISTURE AGAIN APPEARS LIMITED AS
THIS FRONT ARRIVES...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION CONFINED TO
AREAS EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE.

REST OF THE EXTENDED:
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE A LITTLE UNCERTAIN ON HOW THEY WANT TO
HANDLE THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS PUSHES ANOTHER SHOT OF
DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA...WITH FAIR CONDITIONS AS A WEAK RIDGE
PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THE ECMWF QUICKLY RETURNS FLOW BACK TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. WHICH COULD LEAD TO
MOISTURE RETURNING SOONER THEN THE GFS SUGGESTS. CONSENSUS FORECAST
SUGGEST KEEPING SOME POPS IN FOR TUE INTO WED FOR NOW.

KETCHAM

AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

FOCUS IS ON BEHAVIOR OF FAIRLY COLD FRONT THAT IS VENTURING SE TOWARD
E & SE NEBRASKA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE 18Z MODEL RUNS ARE CATCHING
UP WITH THE FASTER-THAN-EXPECTED SE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT. AS SUCH AM
CONFIDENT THAT TSRA WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON & EARLY EVENING
FROM ERN KS TO ACROSS MO. THERE IS SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...BOTH
SPEED & DIRECTIONAL...FOR THE TSRA TO BE QUITE STRONG WITH GUSTS CLOSE
TO 50KTS POSSIBLE AS LOWEST 10,000-12,000FT OF AIRMASS QUITE DRY. WITH
SUCH HIGH-BASED CONVECTION KCNU SHOULD MAINTAIN VFR STATUS THROUGHOUT
THE 18Z TAF CYCLE. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE EXCELLENT WEATHER AS FAIRLY
STRONG HIGH SPREADS E ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  94  65  89 /  20   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      68  93  63  89 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          68  92  63  88 /  20   0   0   0
ELDORADO        69  92  64  88 /  20   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  95  67  89 /  20   0   0   0
RUSSELL         64  91  59  88 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      65  92  60  88 /  10   0   0  10
SALINA          67  91  62  88 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       66  91  61  88 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     71  95  68  88 /  30  10  10   0
CHANUTE         69  92  65  87 /  30  10  10   0
IOLA            70  91  65  87 /  30  10  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    70  93  66  88 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
455 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2012

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-092200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
455 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FLINT HILLS INTO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH ISOLATED STORMS OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS WITH 55 TO 65 MPH WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT. SOME SMALL
HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

A SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST
KANSAS LATE TONIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM YATES CENTER TO COFFEYVILLE. DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS TO 60 MPH ARE THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RETURN THIS WEEKEND...WITH
A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN POSSIBLE OVER ALL AREAS FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. IN EACH CASE...STRONG STORMS CAPABLE
OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH MAY OCCUR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

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KSZ093-091024-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
524 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2012

...BURN BAN IN EFFECT FOR COWLEY COUNTY UNTIL AUGUST 22ND...

THE COWLEY COUNTY BOARD OF COMMISSIONERS HAS ISSUED A BURN BAN FOR
ALL UNINCORPORATED AREAS OF COWLEY COUNTY UNTIL AUGUST 22ND DUE TO
VERY DRY CONDITIONS.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION...PLEASE CONTACT COWLEY COUNTY EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT AT 620-221-0470 OR 620-441-4569.

ADK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
617 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2012

KSZ069-082345-
BUTLER-
617 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BUTLER COUNTY...

AT 613 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTH OF EL DORADO...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAIN...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3772 9663 3763 9689 3794 9704 3801 9683
TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 336DEG 15KT 3789 9688

KLEINSASSER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
619 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2012

KSZ070-082345-
GREENWOOD-
619 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWEST GREENWOOD COUNTY...

AT 617 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF EUREKA...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3767 9653 3785 9652 3789 9636 3760 9622
      3761 9650
TIME...MOT...LOC 2319Z 340DEG 17KT 3774 9643

KLEINSASSER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
645 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2012

KSZ070-094-090015-
ELK-GREENWOOD-
645 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ELK AND GREENWOOD COUNTIES...

AT 641 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF SEVERY...OR 10 MILES SOUTH
OF EUREKA...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. ANOTHER STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED ABOUT 7 MILES NORTH OF EUREKA...ALSO MOVING
SOUTHEAST.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3755 9649 3809 9652 3809 9618 3755 9607
TIME...MOT...LOC 2343Z 325DEG 17KT 3768 9635

KLEINSASSER